US embassy cable - 05MANAMA1347

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001347 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KISL, BA 
SUBJECT: SHIA OPPOSITION SOCIETY AL WIFAQ MOVING TOWARD 
REGISTRATION, ELECTION PARTICIPATION 
 
REF: A. MANAMA 1091 
 
     B. MANAMA 111 
 
Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) The Political Societies Law passed in July requires 
all political societies to register with the Ministry of 
Justice by November 2.  The question of registration has 
created controversy within the membership ranks of leading 
Shia opposition society Al Wifaq, though contacts say that 
the leadership, in particular President Ali Salman, supports 
registering.  Board member Nizar Al Qari said that a series 
of town hall meetings leading up to general assembly meetings 
on September 22 and October 6 should pave the way for a 
decision to register.  Hard-core oppositionists Vice 
President Hassan Mushaima and spokesman Abdul Jalil Singace 
resigned from the society September 17 to protest the move to 
register.  Discussion of registration has led naturally to 
the question of participation in the October 2006 
parliamentary elections, with leading Shias both inside and 
outside the organization speaking publicly on the need for Al 
Wifaq to participate to protect their community's interests. 
End Summary. 
 
------------------------- 
Al Wifaq on the Defensive 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The July Political Societies Law has put leading Shia 
opposition society Al Wifaq on the defensive, forcing it to 
take the positive act of registering with the government just 
to maintain its status quo position.  The law requires 
political societies to register with the Ministry of Justice 
(MOJ) by November 2 (Ref A).  Societies that do not register 
with MOJ can continue to operate under the jurisdiction of 
the Ministry of Social Affairs, per the 1989 Societies Law, 
but, as Minister of Social Affairs Fatima Al Belooshi 
publicly warned September 8, they would not be able to 
conduct political activities. 
 
3.  (C) Passage of the new law led to a round of intense 
criticism of the government and the upper and lower houses of 
parliament, the (appointed) Shura Council and the (elected) 
Council of Representatives, by oppositionists.  Senior Shia 
cleric Shaikh Issa Qassem condemned the law during a Friday 
sermon in late July, and Al Wifaq President Shaikh Ali Salman 
pledged to abide by Qassem's opinion, saying he was "a sword 
in Qassem's hands."  Al Wifaq board member Nizar Al Qari told 
Pol/Econ chief that Qassem and Salman's opposition to the 
law, while genuine, did not mean that they ruled out 
registering with MOJ.  Al Qari said there was enough 
ambiguity in their statements to support registration, 
particularly if such a move were couched in terms of 
continuing to fight the law, but from within the system. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Outreach to Membership to Support Registration 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4.  (C) Al Qari said Al Wifaq is conducting a series of town 
hall meetings with its members to discuss the question of 
registration, leading up to two general assembly meetings, 
the first on September 22 and the second on October 6.  Al 
Qari speaks in favor of registration at the public sessions, 
carrying out Salman's strategy of calming people down and 
getting them to come around to accepting the law.  He said 
that informal surveys indicate some 80 percent of Al Wifaq 
members support registration following the town hall 
meetings.  The pro-registration leadership intends to use the 
general assemblies to generate a mandate in favor of a 
decision to register.  In September 18 press reports, 
credible sources say that the Al Wifaq board has decided to 
submit a formal recommendation in favor of registration to 
the September 22 general assembly.  In his September 16 
sermon, Qassem said that registering under the Political 
Societies Law represents a necessary legal step that will 
give Al Wifaq the freedom to challenge other laws it opposes. 
 
5.  (C) Al Wifaq is an umbrella organization that unites many 
political and (Shia) religious trends under the common cause 
of opposition to the government.  The question of 
registration, however, is causing splits.  Vice President 
Hassan Mushaima and spokesman Abdul Jalil Singace resigned 
from the society September 16 to protest the move to 
register.  The board did not act upon their resignations and 
asked them to reconsider.  Mushaima and Singace have spoken 
publicly about forming a council that would act as a pressure 
group on the government.  (Note:  As an unregistered entity, 
such a council would be vulnerable to a legal challenge by 
the government.)  Al Qari told us earlier that he would 
welcome the departure of hard-line dissenters from Al Wifaq, 
calling them a "headache."  Nizar Al Baharna, a founding 
member of Al Wifaq who left the organization in late 2004 and 
formed his own association, the moderate Justice and 
Development Society, said publicly that he might dissolve his 
group so he and the other members could rejoin Al Wifaq now 
that the "moderate trend in Al Wifaq is on the rise and the 
society is headed towards participation in parliamentary 
elections." 
 
------------------------------------ 
Alternatives to Registration All Bad 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Al Wifaq members who oppose registration under the 
new law face stark alternatives.  Their choices are: 
 
a. Dissolving Al Wifaq so it does not exist in any form; 
b. Maintaining its status under the 1989 Societies Law and 
ceasing any political activities; 
c. Continue operating in defiance of the government in an 
illegal manner; 
d. Forming a new society (which would face the same question 
about registration); or 
e. Declaring the formation of a political party (which 
remains illegal in Bahrain). 
 
Likely in response to this internal debate, Shaikh Issa 
Qassem said in his Friday sermon on September 9 that he 
objected to the idea of dissolving Al Wifaq, thus providing 
pro-registration members with cover for their advocacy 
efforts.  Al Qari told us earlier that Qassem enjoys his 
position as spiritual advisor to Al Wifaq and would not allow 
the society to go underground. 
 
---------------------------------- 
From Registration to Participation 
---------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The issue of registration has led naturally to a 
discussion of participation in the October 2006 parliamentary 
elections.  Prominent Al Wifaq members Jalal and Jawad 
Fairooz, Murtadha Bader, Ibrahim Hussein, and Abbas Mahfoodh 
September 4 publicly announced their support for registration 
and participation in the parliamentary elections.  Referring 
to Qassem's September 9 sermon, Bader said that when Qassem 
spoke of Al Wifaq heading toward a "new political stage," he 
meant participation in the elections.  Al Wifaq participated 
in the 2002 municipal council elections and has already 
announced that it will do so again in May 2006.  Ali Salman 
has said publicly that Al Wifaq will announce its candidates 
list for municipal council elections before the end of 2005. 
 
8.  (C) In previous discussions, Al Qari has strongly implied 
that Al Wifaq is leaning toward participation in the 
elections, but it seeks some gesture from the King as cover 
to demonstrate for its members that the boycott produced 
results.  Shura Council member and president of the Gulf 
Academy for Democratic Development Mansour Al Arayedh and 
parliamentarian Mohammed Al Shaikh, both Shia, separately 
told Pol/Econ chief that they expect Al Wifaq to participate 
in the parliamentary elections with or without a government 
concession.  Al Shaikh commented that Al Wifaq recognizes it 
is weaker because of its boycott, which resulted in the 
organization removing itself from the playing field.  Al 
Arayedh spoke of a long-term struggle between Bahrain's Shia 
majority and Sunni power elite, saying the next logical stage 
for the fight is inside parliament. 
 
-------------------- 
Criticism of Boycott 
-------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Influential Shias outside Al Wifaq continue to 
advocate participation in the elections.  Mansour Al Jamri, 
editor-in-chief of the independent Arabic daily Al Wasat, and 
widely-read Al Wasat columnist Sayed Dhia Al Mousawi continue 
their campaign supporting full participation in the 
elections, which they launched with great fanfare in early 
January (Ref B).  In his September 17 column, Al Jamri says 
that Al Wifaq should finalize its decision on registration 
and enter the political process.  Al Mousawi, who attended 
the Ambassador's September 11 commemoration event and visited 
the U.S. on an IV program during the summer, addressed the 
elections in his September 6 column.  He asks those who 
oppose registration what they have achieved by boycotting 
parliament.  He points out that they were unable to stop any 
of the laws that parliament passed, and stresses that 
critical national issues need to be debated inside 
parliament, not on the outside.  He lists the names of Arab 
scholars and intellectuals who consider the boycott to be a 
mistake, and adds that there are many political groups in 
other Arab countries that had boycotted elections at one time 
but which had reconsidered their positions and now 
participate. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) The controversy within Al Wifaq on registering under 
the Political Societies Law is likely a preview of the type 
of battle that could erupt as the parliamentary elections 
grow closer, but with even higher stakes due to the more 
difficult question of participating in the elections.  In 
some ways, the prospect of shedding some of the most 
hard-core oppositionists during this go-around could actually 
make a decision to participate in the elections easier for Al 
Wifaq.  President Ali Salman is a savvy politician who keeps 
his cards close to his chest.  His guiding of the process 
toward registration has been adept so far; it is in Bahrain's 
larger national interest that he be equally skilled in moving 
toward elections. 
 
MONROE