US embassy cable - 05ANKARA5420

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 005420 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2015 
TAGS: MOPS, PREL, CY, GR, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY APPARENTLY NOT YET DECIDED ON CANCELING 
CYPRUS MILITARY EXERCISES, WILL OFFER ADDITIONAL CBM'S TO 
GREECE 
 
REF: A. STATE 163708 
 
     B. ANKARA 4966 
     C. ANKARA 1103 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Timothy A. Betts for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Turkish MFA and TGS will discuss the 
cancellation of military exercises on Sept. 19.  MFA is 
inclined to cancel (if Greece does); the TGS J5 Greece/Cyprus 
Branch Chief told us he will recommend the decision be linked 
to whether EU accession negotiations commence Oct. 3.  We 
believe MFA's view will prevail.  Turkey plans to offer 
bilateral CBMs to the Greeks in advance of the Greek land 
forces commander's Nov. 5 visit to Ankara.  End summary. 
 
 
MFA: We Will Likely Cancel Cyprus Exercises... 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (C) Charge delivered ref a demarche Sept. 7 to MFA 
Undersecretary Tuygan, who acknowledged the points but did 
not respond substantively.  Deputy PolCouns followed up Sept. 
16 with Levent Bilman, MFA Deputy Director General for 
Northeastern Mediterranean Affairs.  Bilman reported that the 
MFA will discuss the issue with the "relevant authorities" 
(the military) on Sept. 19.  He added that "our intention" 
(MFA's) is to follow the same approach as last year 
(simultaneous Greek/Turkish cancellation of autumn exercises 
in Cyprus), but he could not make any guarantees prior to the 
Sept. 19 meeting. 
 
...But TGS Is Still Thinking About It 
------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) On Sept. 14, PolMilCouns called on TGS J5 
Greece/Cyprus Branch Chief RADM Mucahit Sislioglu to discuss 
the issue.  Sislioglu said that he planned to recommend to 
his superiors that the decision on carrying out exercises in 
Cyprus should be linked to whether EU accession negotiations 
proceed on Oct. 3.  Sislioglu asserted that he was "85-90 
percent certain" that the negotiations would proceed, and 
therefore Turkey would not carry out the exercises.  If, 
however, negotiations are derailed, he warned that he would 
recommend proceeding "for sure" with exercises.  He noted 
that it was also possible that the GOT may decide to cancel 
the "Toros" exercise before Oct. 3, but if accession talks 
are called off Turkey may carry out an exercise by another 
name.  PolMilCouns pointed out that it may not be Greece or 
Cyprus who would block negotiations; Sislioglu countered that 
he would still recommend proceeding with exercises in such 
circumstances. 
 
4. (C) Sislioglu (please protect) emphasized that he was only 
providing us what will be his own recommendation to his 
superiors in TGS, and that he did not know what MFA's 
position would be. 
 
5. COMMENT: If EU accession negotiations proceed on Oct. 3, 
we believe Turkey will not carry out large-scale exercises in 
Cyprus.  However, if there is a negative outcome on Oct. 3, 
Turkey will reconsider a number of policies, including 
military exercises.  END COMMENT. 
 
TGS: We Will Offer More CBMs to the Greeks...Again 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
6. (C) Sislioglu mentioned that during a trip to Greece in 
February (ref c), he had offered the Greek military specific 
confidence-building measures, including port visits, joint 
exercises, and personnel exchanges at each others' bases. 
Sislioglu said these were similar to previous offers TGS has 
made in the past.  He said the Greek military only replied 
that it was seeking political direction from the Greek MFA, 
and never provided a final response. 
 
7. (C) Sislioglu reported that the Greek land forces 
commander was to visit Ankara Nov. 5, and that TGS had 
prepared a similar list of CBMs for this visit, focused on 
army-to-army contacts.  However, this time the Turkish MFA 
will make the offer directly to the Greek MFA first. 
Provided the Greek MFA approves the offer, TGS will then 
"push the button" on the military side. 
MCELDOWNEY