US embassy cable - 05ASUNCION1173

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 001173 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS TO USAID LAC/AA 
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD DAN JOHNSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KJUS, PINR, PA 
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: NO GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD FOR LINO 
OVIDEO 
 
 
Classified By: PolOff Mark A. Stamilio, reason 1.4(d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: In late August, rumors circulated that 
imprisoned former general Lino Oviedo's Union of Ethical 
Citizens (UNACE) party was attempting to negotiate his early 
release from prison as part of a political deal.  Although 
the presidents of UNACE and the ruling Colorado (ANR) party 
denied that their parties were discussing any such deal, it 
is likely that there was some truth to the rumors.  It is 
unlikely, however, that the ANR, unprompted by some pressing 
overreaching strategic objective, would test fate by 
facilitating Oviedo's release if this implied he could pursue 
political office, as part of the opposition.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) In late August, rumors circulated that UNACE was 
attempting to negotiate Oviedo's early release from prison as 
part of a political deal.  Various versions of the story 
emerged in the press.  Most held that, in exchange for 
Oviedo's release, UNACE offered to vote with the ANR in favor 
of a constituent assembly that, among other things, would 
address a proposal to amend the constitution to permit the 
President to run for re-election.  There was widespread 
speculation that UNACE's surprising decision to vote in favor 
of Ruben Candia Amarilla, the President's choice to replace 
Oscar Latorre as Attorney General, also was part of the deal. 
 Senator Enrique Gonzalez Quintana and Herminio Caceres, 
presidents of UNACE and the ANR, respectively, denied that 
their parties were discussing any such deal. 
 
3. (U) The day after the story on a possible deal in 
connection with the vote on the Attorney General appeared, 
Liberal (PLRA) party senator Armando Espinola proposed a bill 
to grant Oviedo amnesty for his crimes, as a means of uniting 
the opposition against the ANR.  UNACE senator Jose Manuel 
Boveda responded that Oviedo was not interested in amnesty, 
since he was not willing to admit that he was guilty. 
Supreme Court Justice Victor Nunez spoke up on behalf of the 
judiciary, asserting that justice would not be administered 
by political pacts. 
 
4. (C) On August 30, Senator Alejandro Velazquez Ugarte 
(formerly UNACE, but now ANR) told PolOffs that UNACE and the 
ANR had discussed a deal that would have included Oviedo's 
release on home arrest and eventual parole.  According to 
Velazquez, Oviedo sent Gonzalez to discuss the matter with 
Caceres and two prominent ANR senators, Juan Carlos Galaverna 
and Blas Riquelme.  In the next breath, however, Velazquez 
asserted that the ANR would never agree to Oviedo's release, 
since his return to the political scene would destabilize the 
country in a matter of days.  He also asserted that UNACE 
merely voted in favor of Candia for Attorney General because 
the party "didn't have anything against him."  In a September 
1 meeting with PolOffs Gonzalez qualified UNACE's votes for 
Candia as votes against Latorre and as a bid to win some good 
will with leading ANR politicos.  (Note: Latorre was the 
prosecutor in one of the cases against Oviedo, earning him 
strong antipathy within UNACE.) 
 
5. (C) On September 7, businessman and former UNACE party 
member Raul Doutreleau claimed to PolCouns that President 
Duarte Frutos had offered to have Oviedo released from jail 
and placed under house arrest, likely on the clear 
understanding he couldn't run for political office.  Oviedo 
refused, however, insisting his conviction be overturned and 
other charges pending against him dismissed.  Doutreleau 
dismissed prospects of Oviedo's early release, because of 
Oviedo's obstinate inflexibility, and because the ANR 
recognized the political threat he would pose if he were 
released.  In jail, he is merely a thorn in their side as his 
diehard supporters campaign for his release.  If he were 
released and able to launch a political campaign, he could 
quickly emerge as the country's leading political figure. 
With him in jail, the ANR is gradually picking off his 
supporters among the political elite. 
 
6. (C) Comment: While there may be some truth to the rumors 
that a deal was in the works, it is unlikely that the ANR, 
unprompted by some significant overreacting political 
objective, would test fate by permitting Oviedo's release if 
it meant he could return to political life as an opposition 
candidate.  Despite his conviction and ten-year prison 
sentence, Oviedo typically places second behind Duarte Frutos 
in opinion polls about potential presidential candidates in 
2008.  He is renowned for his common touch charisma, tireless 
campaigning and ability to rally support.  Espinola's amnesty 
proposal serves as a reminder that many members of the 
opposition still support Oviedo or at least open to using him 
to attack the ANR. 
KEANE