US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA738

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BRATISLAVA 000738 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, SOCI, LO 
SUBJECT: KDH IS HOT; SDKU IS NOT 
 
REF: BRATISLAVA 730 
 
Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Prime Minister Dzurinda is taking 
advantage of a long holiday weekend to try to gather the 
support of at least three independent MPs needed to open 
parliament on September 20 (reftel).  Coalition partners KDH 
and SMK and ANO "Lintners" hope Dzurinda is successful, but 
if not, the prefer to hold elections as soon as possible 
(March 18, but only if 90 MPs vote to approve them) rather 
than continue the current deadlock.  Polling numbers to be 
released publicly September 19 will show KDH has received a 
significant bump up after successfully removing Pavol Rusko 
from his Ministerial position, while SDKU's popularity has 
fallen.  SDKU is in firm opposition to early elections except 
as a "last resort." END SUMMARY. 
 
DZURINDA SEARCHES FOR QUORUM 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  SDKU MP and close Embassy source Roman Vavrik 
(please protect) told us September 16 that Dzurinda continues 
to try to get the required votes for a quorum to open 
parliament September 20, but that, in his personal opinion, 
KDH now wants early elections and wants to get rid of PM 
Dzurinda.  He said that KDH was supposed to reach out to 
former SDKU MP Ivan Simko to help Dzurinda hold the line, who 
has so far failed to participate in the reopening of 
parliament.  Simko demanded a formal statement of support 
similar to the one brokered between the coalition and Lubomir 
Lintner (who leads 9 MPs formerly of the ANO party), and 
wants to be included in the extraordinary sessions of the 
Coalition Council (which met today).  Vavrik termed Simko a 
"dirty blackmailer" but didn't discount the fact that the 
Coalition Council, which is meeting late September 16, might 
strike a deal with Simko (Note:  We will update Department as 
warranted).  KDH agreed that Simko's price is too high, and 
said ultimately it will be Dzurinda's responsibility to have 
enough votes to open parliament on September 20. 
 
KDH MEETS WITH THE OPPOSITION TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
3.  (C)  Julius Brocka, Deputy Chairman of KDH and MP, said 
that the KDH and SMK call for early elections is in part an 
attempt to demonstrate to the independents that the coalition 
is not desperate, and that the independents' cooperation was 
not worth the political price they thought it was.  When the 
opposition parties called for early elections, Brocka claims, 
KDH decided to show it has "nothing to fear."  He claims this 
was the reason that KDH leader (and Chairman of Parliament) 
Pavol Hrusovsky met with the leaders of Smer, KSS, and HZDS 
this week -- to demonstrate that independent MPs will not be 
needed if there are early elections, and that they need the 
parliament to continue if they want to stay in it.  This 
strengthens Dzurinda's hand in negotiations with the 
independents.  Furthermore, KDH wants it to be the coalition 
-- not the opposition -- that determines when the elections 
will be held, and on whose terms. 
 
HRUSOVSKY PREPARED FOR EARLY ELECTIONS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Hrusovsky spokesman Michal Dyttert told us that the 
issue is simple:  "we need 76 MPs.  We don't have them yet." 
Dyttert said Dzurinda hopes to pick up three independents by 
that time, but that KDH isn't sure it will happen, as Smer is 
actively courting some of the same independents.  The party 
believes that, if parliament can't open, early elections will 
be the only option, and the earlier, the better. 
Constitutionally, the earliest possible date for early 
elections at this point would be March 18, but the current 
headcount shows that only 82 MPs support early polls (90 MPs 
are required).  According to Dyttert, Smer hopes to find more 
votes in HZDS.  Meanwhile, Vavrik reports that Vladimir 
Meciar's HZDS party has offered to help open the government 
in exchange for early elections in June; this would "satisfy" 
his voter base. 
 
SMK:  WHY PROLONG THE POLITICAL AGONY? 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  SMK, according to spokeswoman Livia Solymos, is not 
yet resigned to the idea of early elections (they are still 
waiting for the results of Hrusovsky's outreach to opposition 
and independents) but if the independents do not cooperate, 
SMK would not oppose March elections.  If parliament cannot 
get a quorum, she asked rhetorically, "why prolong the 
political agony?"  She said that the opposition supports June 
elections, because the opposition and independents would 
therefore continue to draw their salaries through the summer. 
 She expressed disappointment that SMK cannot get parliament 
to open session so it can swear in a new deputy (to replace a 
recently deceased SMK MP). 
 
COMMENT:  WHO'S HOT (KDH), WHO'S NOT (SDKU, ANO) 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  (C)  Dzurinda's SDKU party continues to treat elections 
as an absolute last resort, and according to polling data to 
be released September 19, they have good reason to want more 
time to campaign.  According to the data, if the elections 
were held today, Slovaks would vote for the following parties 
in the following distribution: 
 
Party   Percent Support 
-----   --------------- 
Smer    35 
KDH     12.3 
HZDS    11.5 
SMK     10.5 
SNS     8.8 
SDKU    7.4 
KSS     4.8 
SF      4.4 
HZD     2.6 
ANO     2.1 
 
7.  (C)  According to this polling data, KDH, bolstered by 
its successful removal of Rusko and ANO from the coalition, 
has climbed to second place (for the first time in the last 8 
years), while coalition partner SMK has the solid support of 
ethnic Hungarians.  Smer may have picked up "votes" from some 
former ANO supporters.  We also note that nationalist party 
SNS is now more popular than Dzurinda's own SDKU party in the 
polls, and that the Communist party KSS hovers near the "five 
percent threshold."  Once again, Slovak politics proves 
fickle.  It is still possible that Dzurinda -- a gifted 
politician -- may find the support he needs.  Elections as 
early as March are the alternative.  END COMMENT. 
 
VALLEE 
 
 
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