US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3393

UNCLAS WARSAW 003393 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: POLISH ELECTIONS UPDATE: PO, PIS MAINTAIN LEAD 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: The centrist Civic Platform (PO) and 
center-right Law and Justice (PiS) continue to dominate the 
party preference polls with little more than a week before 
Polish parliamentary elections September 25.  The latest 
surveys indicate that PO still far outpaces PiS, and that, 
together, the likely coalition partners will have a solid 
majority in parliament.  SLD candidate Wlozdimierz 
Cimoszewicz's September 14 withdrawal from the presidential 
race may have strengthened PO candidate Donald Tusk's lead, 
with one poll putting his support at 50 percent.  Tusk and 
PM-apparent Jan Rokita (PO) have both signaled their 
preference for a coalition government with PiS, even if PO 
were to win an outright majority on its own, reasoning that 
it would be better to deal with PiS in coalition than in 
opposition.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) The most recent reliable opinion poll, released 
September 15, put support for PO at 36 percent, with PiS next 
at 23 percent, followed by the governing SLD at 9 percent, 
the right-wing LPR at 8 percent, and the populist 
Self-Defense at 7 percent.  This survey projected that PO and 
PiS would win 348 of the total 460 parliamentary seats, well 
above the two-thirds needed to amend the constitution. 
Another poll released that day showed even higher levels of 
support for PO and PiS (42 and 24 percent, respectively), but 
that survey is considered less reliable because it was 
conducted by telephone.  Strikingly, the rest of the field 
was reduced to single-digit levels of support in both polls. 
 
3. (U) The departure of Cimoszewicz from the presidential 
campaign may have boosted Tusk's support slightly, as a third 
of Cimoszewicz supporters had listed Tusk as their second 
choice in earlier polls.  A poll taken immediately after 
Cimoszewicz's announcement indicated that support for Tusk 
had risen to 50 percent (versus 29 percent for PiS rival Lech 
Kaczynski), fueling speculation that Tusk might win the 
presidency in the first round.  In any case, Cimoszewicz's 
withdrawal was yet more bad news for the Kaczynski campaign, 
which had still hoped, against all evidence, to face the SLD 
candidate in the second round. 
 
4. (SBU) The public reaction from the PO camp to its 
sustained surge has been characteristically restrained, as 
its leaders seek to avoid appearing overconfident and 
alienating potential supporters.  Both Tusk and Rokita stated 
publicly September 16 that PO would prefer to have PiS join 
it in a coalition government, even if PO were to win a 
parliamentary majority on its own.  Better a coalition 
government with broad public support that a single-party 
government with weaker public backing, Rokita reasoned. 
Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, leader of PO's Warsaw list, 
confirmed that view with us, noting that some in the party 
have become enthusiastic about the prospect of governing 
alone, but most recognize that it will be much easier to have 
PiS in coalition (however difficult, especially on economic 
issues, that will be) than to have to face them in opposition. 
Ashe