US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7259

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007259 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PREL, PHUM, PGOV, IN, PK, AF, INDO-PAK, UNGA 
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK UNGA MEETING POSITIVE, NO FIREWORKS 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 6797 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 6520 
     C. NEW DELHI 2884 
 
Classified By: CDA Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The September 14, four-hour Manmohan 
Singh-Musharraf dinner meeting and joint statement on the 
sidelines of UNGA continued the positive bilateral vibe even 
if it did not produce new deliverables, MEA Joint Secretary 
(Pakistan/Iran/Afghanistan) Dilip Sinha told us during a 
September 15 office call.  He added that the Second Round of 
the Composite Dialogue was "satisfactory," and that the Third 
Round would run from January-June.  Sinha shared with us some 
background to the massive prisoner exchange that preceded the 
UNGA meeting, and noted that many more Indo-Pak interactions 
are on the calendar, including planned visits to Pakistan by 
the Foreign Minister and the Indian cricket team.  On transit 
rights for Indian aid to Afghanistan, he reported that 
Islamabad had offered a creative solution -- using Afghan 
trucks and drivers to deliver a food shipment -- that could 
be replicated for shipping the heavy equipment and cables 
needed to complete the Kabul-Phul-i-Khumri power project, and 
suggested that we might work with the GOI on a new 
agriculture project in Afghanistan.  End Summary. 
 
Joint Statement: "Neither Exultation nor Despair" 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
2.  (U) "Asian Age" Political Editor Seema Mustafa summed up 
the sentiment in Delhi that the anodyne joint statement from 
the September 14 Manmohan-Musharraf talks evinced "neither 
exultation, nor a sense of despair."  From the Delhi 
perspective, the joint statement was long on positive 
language but broke no new ground.  The "Times of India" 
described the meeting as "Another Chronicle of Wasted Time." 
 
3.  (C) Although many Delhi-based Pakistan-watchers had set 
their sights on new breakthroughs at the UNGA meeting which 
the leaders failed to deliver (Ref B), Sinha remained upbeat. 
 He did not have any inside scoop to share with us, but noted 
that the web of Indo-Pak interactions planned through June 
2006 should keep the dialogue on track and would periodically 
produce tangible outcomes, like the accord on missile test 
notification and the MOU between the Indian Coast Guard and 
the Pakistani Maritime Agency that will be signed by the 
Foreign Ministers during the 3-5 October Ministerial in 
Islamabad.  Former Director of the Observer Research 
Foundation's Pakistan Centre Sushant Sareen separately blamed 
the local media for hyping the event ahead of time in order 
to slam it afterwards. 
 
Maintaining Pressure on Cross-Border Terrorism 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4.  (C) The PM's New York comments attributing to Islamabad 
the ability to control "the flow of terror from Pakistan" was 
a pointed reminder that, for the GOI, cross-border terrorism 
is the "core issue" in Indo-Pak relations.  Conversations 
with our GOI interlocutors on the prospect of substantial 
Indo-Pak progress are always underscored with the caveat that 
the process could be derailed if Islamabad allows 
cross-border terrorism to escalate.  Furthermore, as the PM 
also pointed out in New York, any future troop reductions in 
J&K will be calibrated with the level and trajectory of 
infiltration and terrorist attacks.  An assessment of recent 
and proposed changes in the Indian security posture in J&K 
will follow septel. 
 
Relations Back on Track 
----------------------- 
5.  (C) Sinha labeled the September 1 Foreign Secretaries' 
meeting that wrapped up the Second Round of the Composite 
Dialogue as "satisfactory," although "it could have been 
better."  In his view, the most significant outcomes from 
those talks were scheduling the Third Composite Dialogue 
Round for January-June 2006, and reviving the Indo-Pak Joint 
Commission to facilitate trade, transportation links, and 
other economic interactions.  Sinha described the Commission, 
which had lain dormant since 1989, as an indicator that the 
relationship is "back on track."  The Commission will be 
kicked off when the Foreign Ministers meet in Islamabad. 
 
Prisoner Exchange a Massive Humanitarian CBM 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The run-up to the UNGA meeting was marked by a 
massive exchange of civilian prisoners.  A total of 583 
prisoners -- 435 Indian nationals who were jailed in Pakistan 
and 146 Pakistanis held in India -- were repatriated at the 
Wagah border on September 12.  The swap had been on the books 
for months, but it did not become "a political issue for the 
Islamabad" until recently, according to Sinha.  He told us he 
had demarched the Pakistani High Commission in Delhi for 
consular access to the Indian prisoners and their 
repatriation at least 3-4 times since he took his office in 
March, and at least six more demarches went via the Indian 
High Commission in Islamabad.  In contrast, the Pakistanis 
became engaged only over the summer, Sinha said.  Indian Home 
Secretary VK Duggal had proposed timing the release just 
 
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prior to the Manmohan-Musharrarf meeting for political 
effect, but Sinha told us that  last-minute administrative 
hiccups from Islamabad -- including passing the names of over 
60 of the prisoners in mid-July and insisting that the lot be 
cleared for the swap or they would call off the entire 
exchange -- nearly scuttled the event.  Sinha described a 
massive logistical effort that went into mobilizing these 
Pakistani detainees from across India and getting them to the 
border by September 12. 
 
The Calendar is Packed 
---------------------- 
 
7.  (C) On Musharraf's offer to host the PM in Pakistan -- an 
offer first made during Musharraf's April visit to Delhi -- 
Sinha predicted it would take place during the first half of 
2006.  Ramadan will be in October, the SAARC summit in 
November, and then Parliament opens, he explained, ruling out 
2005.  Sinha added that there are two weeks at the end of 
December, after Parliament concludes, that have been a 
traditional time for Indo-Pak activity.   This would be the 
PM's first visit to Pakistan since Partition -- he grew up in 
Gah, a Punjabi village that is now part of Pakistan. 
 
8.  (C) A raft of other bilateral interactions are also 
planned for the fall, including meetings on the 
Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline and the deliverables from the 
April joint statement (such as opening the consulates and 
adding new transport links).  Indo-Pak cricket has become an 
annual event, with the Indian team planning to travel to 
Pakistan in the January-February timeframe, Sinha added. 
 
Facilitating Afghan Aid 
----------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Picking up the thread of transit rights for Indian 
aid to Afghanistan, Sinha reported that some shipments have 
been cleared on a case-by-case basis, with the details 
usually sorted out between Islamabad and Kabul.  Regarding 
reports of mini-vans being allowed transit, he clarified that 
the GOP had approved the shipment but, because it was not 
already in the GOI's assistance queue, Delhi would have to 
assemble the vans for future delivery.  Sinha recalled that 
230 busses out of a package of 600 were previously delivered 
overland through Pakistan. 
 
10.  (C) Furthermore, the next consignment of World Food 
Program aid from India will transit Pakistan, Sinha reported, 
in response to a request from the Afghan government.  The 
modalities, coordinated with the Indian Embassy in Kabul, are 
for Afghan trucks and drivers to cross Pakistan, take 
delivery, and return to Afghanistan.  Sinha suggested that if 
this arrangement proves successful and satisfies Islamabad's 
concerns, it could be the framework for shipping the heavy 
equipment and cables needed to complete the 
Kabul-Phul-i-Khumri power project.  Because the GOI promised 
to convert cost savings from transit (vs. routing shipments 
through Iran), he joked that he would have to calculate how 
many extra substations India could now finance. 
 
11.  (C) Turning to the PM's August 28-29 visit to Kabul (Ref 
A), Sinha -- who was in the delegation -- suggested that one 
new area for Indo-US cooperation here  would be in the 
agriculture sector, which he noted was of great interest to 
President Karzai.  India is examining how "green revolution" 
methods might be made available to Afghanistan.  He ended by 
reiterating that Iran was still uncooperative regarding the 
Zaranj-Delaram road project. 
 
Comment: Prospects Still Good 
----------------------------- 
 
12.  (C) Despite some of the gloom-mongering in the press, 
Sinha's dispassionate assessment of the status of Indo-Pak 
affairs appears accurate.  The deliverables list from last 
April are much less politically charged than the Composite 
Dialogue topics, and further progress on the April CBMs -- 
and additional benefits, such as possible future easing of 
transit restrictions for Afghan aid -- may be just what is 
needed to pave the way for closure on the territorial and 
other sensitive items.  As NDTV's Ajai Shukla commented to 
us, it was completely unrealistic to expect that India would 
have agreed to any major Indo-Pak breakthrough in New York, 
thereby cementing the notion of US mediation and handing a 
political club to the BJP.  Rather, he suggested, we should 
take encouragement from what appears from here to be the 
increasing normalization of Indo-Pak relations.  End Comment. 
 
13.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
PYATT