US embassy cable - 05MINSK1129

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001129 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ECON, BO 
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY REPORT - September 14, 
2005 
 
 
1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled 
by Embassy Minsk over the past week. 
 
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Civil Society 
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2.  Opposition Congress Secures Location, But Wants More 
 
Following Lukashenko's instruction to Minsk city 
officials to assist the opposition 10+ coalition in 
finding a location for its meeting, opposition leader 
Aleksandr Bukhvostov announced on September 13 that the 
Congress of Democratic Forces of Belarus will be held at 
the Minsk Automobile Plant (MAZ) Culture Center October 
1 and 2.  The opposition made additional requests for 
assistance on September 14, including asking that the 
GOB issue visas to all foreign guests and urging the 
state-controlled media to provide unbiased coverage. 
 
3.  EU Funds Broadcast Program into Belarus 
 
On September 9, the European Commission published a EURO 
two million tender to fund independent broadcasting into 
Belarus.  This two-year program will start in January 
2006 and broadcast on radio and television in both 
Russian and Belarusian.  EC Commissioner Benita Ferrero- 
Waldner stated, "The human rights situation in Belarus 
is deteriorating, and if the country is to find its way 
onto the path to democracy, the people need access to 
free media."  GOB Ministry spokesman Ruslan Yesin 
retorted the project, "represents direct interference in 
the domestic matters of a sovereign state." 
 
4.  GOB Believes UBP Situation Is Not an Ethnic Minority 
Problem 
 
On September 8, Director of the EcooM Analytic Center 
Sergey Musiyenko reasoned that since ethnic Poles are 
actually full-fledged citizens of Belarus, the situation 
with the UBP should not be considered an ethnic minority 
problem.  Musiyenko warned, "the situation around the 
UBP is a problem artificially created in order to build 
up the influence of the Belarusian opposition."  [Note: 
EcooM is closely tied to Lukashenko's Presidential 
Administration and routinely serves as a regime 
mouthpiece.] 
 
5.  Belarusian Social Democratic Party Hramada (BSDPH) 
to Participate in Congress 
 
On September 9, the BSDPH announced it will 
participate in the 10+ coalition's single candidate 
congress October 1 and 2.  The BSDPH is not a member of 
the coalition, and hence cannot nominate ten delegates 
based on party membership, but wants "to speak to the 
congress, to express our opinion, talk, discuss and 
argue."  However, a number of local BSDPH chapters 
participated in the 10+'s local delegate conventions and 
elected delegates from their party.  These people will 
participate as delegates in the congress.  If a single 
candidate is chosen, BSDPH stated that this person will 
represent the 10+ coalition, but not the BSDPH. 
 
6.  Italy 4, Belarus 1 
 
After Italy's football team beat Belarus on September 7 
by three goals, Anatoly Baidachny stated that he would 
not step down as head coach of the Belarusian football 
team.  Baidachny blames the defeat on poor defense and 
the lack of highly skilled players. 
 
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Human Rights 
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7.  TIP: An Internal and External Problem for Belarus 
 
On September 14, the Ministry of Interior expressed its 
concern about the number of Belarusians involved with 
trafficking of persons (TIP).  Since January, the GOB 
has uncovered 15 TIP cases with 50 victims.  Recently, 
the GOB stymied a proposal from a Member of Parliament 
to open brothels in Belarus, and expelled the heads of 
two foreign marriage agencies suspected of involvement 
in TIP [Note: one was an Amcit, who received assistance 
from Post].  The latest case concerned ten Belarusian 
university students who were sent to Turkey to 
reportedly work as forced labor. 
 
 
MINSK 00001129  002 OF 003 
 
 
8.  GOB Awards Officials for Repression of Union of 
Belarusian Poles (UBP) 
 
On September 7, Presidential Administration head Victor 
Sheiman presented awards to several Grodno Oblast 
officials for "actions to improve stabilization in the 
sphere of international relations."  NGO Charter 97 
commented, "there is no doubt that the officials were 
awarded for the dismissal of the legal administration of 
the UBP and for pressure on the democratic part of this 
public organization." 
 
9.  Belarusian Criminal Law More Humane? 
 
On September 13, MP Alexander Arkhipov commented that 
Lukashenko's recent decree enabling the head of state to 
pardon criminals who repent and pay for damages "proves 
that the Belarusian Criminal Legislation is getting more 
humane."  The decree, however, may also result in an 
increase in crimes since people will think they have a 
chance to avoid punishment.  It is also a means for 
Lukashenko to pardon corrupt members of his own 
government who are caught stealing. 
 
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Economics 
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10.  More Trade via Kaliningrad, Less via the Baltics 
 
On September 9, the GOB announced that it plans to transship 
a pilot lot of potassium fertilizer through Russia's 
Kaliningrad port.  The GOB postulates the Kaliningrad port 
could process up to one million tons of Belarusian cargo 
annually.  Belarus' increased use of the Kaliningrad port 
could lead to a decrease in the amount of trade via the 
Baltic ports of Klaipeda and Ventspils. 
 
11.  Belarus' secret export promotion strategy 
 
On September 9, the Presidium of the Belarusian Council of 
Ministers approved the 2006 - 2010 draft program to develop 
Belarus' exports.  The program offers two growth rate 
forecasts: the "base forecast" projects a 57% export growth 
of up to USD 27 billion, while the "optimistic forecast" 
predicts 65% growth of up to USD 32 billion.  Econoff 
learned that the details of the report are not accessible to 
the public and the GOB will not share it with diplomatic 
missions in Belarus. 
 
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Anti-U.S. 
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12.  Bush Administration Profits from 9/11 
 
On September 12, Belarusian State TV accused the Bush 
Administration of profiting from September 11, 2001, and the 
subsequent war in Iraq.  The reporter and several Russian 
Duma members claimed that President Bush destroyed Iraq and 
then granted permission to "select" companies to rebuild it 
using the taxpayers' money. 
 
13.  Katrina Exposes U.S. Weakness 
 
On September 9 (and several times subsequently), pro-state 
Belarusian media used Bush's handling of Hurricane Katrina 
to try to discredit the USG.  Belarusian military newspaper 
Vo Slavu Rodny compared the inadequate U.S. response to 
Katrina (delays in aid, inability of the military to regain 
control, etc.) with the GOB's successful response to 
"Hurricane Chernobyl", which the paper described as "very 
effectively [handled] and in an organized way."  On 
September 15 Ruslan Yesin, Spokesman for the MFA, announced 
Belarus remains ready to send assistance to the U.S., 
"despite the fact that the country is still dealing with the 
aftermath of the hurricane that hit Belarus in August." 
[Note: moderately high winds knocked down many trees in 
Belarus on August 9.] 
 
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International Relations 
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14.  Lukashenko Invites Castro to Belarus 
 
On September 12, Lukashenko extended an invitation to 
Cuban President Fidel Castro to visit Belarus. 
Lukashenko stated, "We would receive him with pleasure 
as an intimate and good friend."  Post understands that 
 
MINSK 00001129  003 OF 003 
 
 
Venezuelan leader Chavez will also make a visit to 
Belarus by the end of the year. 
 
15.  Belarus Parliament Wants Cooperation with NATO 
 
After being suspended from associate membership in 1997, 
the Belarusian parliament announced on September 13 that 
it is ready to establish mutually beneficial relations 
with the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.  Belarusian MP 
Nikolai Cherginets made very clear, however, that the 
GOB seeks only cooperation with NATO and not associate 
member status.  Cherginets and the parliament also 
denounced plans to discuss Belarus in the NATO PA. 
 
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Quote of the Week 
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16.  Presidential Administration staffer Eduard Skobelev 
offered his opinion on the Belarusian opposition in 
Belarus' main state newspaper, Sovietskaya Belarus, on 
September 14: 
 
"These chicken-hearted clandestine agents of chaos and 
destruction are enjoying enormous support....  Many 
foreign parties are babbling day and night about the 
lack of `democracy', `true European initiatives' and 
`Atlantic solidarity' in Belarus....  They are trying to 
turn the Belarusian people into zombies, implanting the 
idea of a revolution in them." 
 
KROL