US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1438

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001438 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION ENTERS ANAMBRA 
STATE'S GOVERNOR SWEEPSTAKES 
 
REF: LAGOS 1391 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  In a reversal that seems awkward even by 
Anambra State's meager standards of political behavior, the 
Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) appealed the Anambra 
state electoral tribunals' decision to overturn the 2003 
gubernatorial election.  During the tribunal hearing, INEC 
defended the integrity of the election, but now it is 
disavowing the very elections it conducted.  INEC's appeal, 
if successful, would result in a new election.  Both tribunal 
loser Governor Ngige and tribunal verdict winner Peter Obi 
have at least temporarily found common cause in vituperating 
the INEC action.  Most observers believe INEC's about-face is 
the handiwork of Presidential ally and Anambra strongman 
Chris Uba, who has been itching to install a loyal surrogate 
in the governor's mansion in Awka.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) On September 7, INEC's new director, Maurice Iwu, 
lodged an appeal with the Anambra state court of appeals, 
claiming that INEC did not conduct elections in 90 of 213 
precincts in 2003.  According to INEC, proper elections did 
not take place; therefore, Anambra will have to hold new 
elections.  INEC's requested remedy significantly differs 
from Ngige's appeal, who is asking the court to overturn the 
tribunal's ruling and return him to office.  Both appeals are 
set for hearings in the same court of appeals. 
 
4.  (U) The Speaker of the Anambra State House of Assembly 
called INEC's move "unbelievable."  According to him, INEC 
has not disputed the propriety of other elections held in 
Anambra the same day as the gubernatorial contest, and their 
current stance is both contradictory and erroneous.  The 
State Secretary echoed these comments exactly.  The attorney 
for Peter Obi, winner of the electoral tribunal verdict, made 
similar statements and added that he remembered INEC 
officials defending the 2003 election at the tribunal.  He 
reportedly called INEC prepared "to trample on truth and 
reason in order to act a script written by certain faceless 
politicians with a selfish agenda." 
 
5.  (C) Comment.  INEC states its appeal is based on a 
finding made by the tribunal that elections were not actually 
conducted in a significant number of precincts.  Few people 
take INEC rationale at face value.  Most people believe 
INEC's actions have been orchestrated by Chris and Andy Uba, 
both of whom have close ties to President Obasanjo.  Chris 
Uba wants to control Anambra and who sits in the top seat 
there.  First, he allied with Ngige but found the diminutive, 
superficially malleable physician ultimately uncontrollable 
and unreliable.  Uba made overtures to Obi, but Obi, a man of 
independent means, did not need Uba and apparently rebuffed 
his advances.  Thus, Uba wants to clean the deck.  Whether he 
succeeds is now in the hands of the Anambra court.  However, 
this episode, which has seen INEC publicly discredit its own 
conduct of an election, has cast futher doubt in the minds of 
many Anambrans over the ability of INEC to be an impartial 
actor in the state.  Ngige was expelled from the PDP at Uba's 
behest, and rather than lose a PDP governorship, the PDP 
wants to get a fresh try at it.  With its appeal, which can 
reasonably be expected to succeed, INEC can still unseat 
Ngige and marginalize Obi, even if the pair strike a deal and 
Ngige withdraws his own appeal. 
BROWNE