US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1686

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001686 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DAS BRYZA), EUR/ACE (ADAMS) AND 
EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EAID, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR PRESSES KOCHARIAN TO SUPPORT USG 
DEMOCRATIZATION ACTIVITIES 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (S) On 15 September, the Ambassador met with President 
Kocharian for just over an hour, at our request, primarily to 
discuss the USG's upcoming push for free and fair elections 
in Armenia in 2007 (parliamentary) and 2008 (presidential). 
The Ambassador opened the meeting by thanking Kocharian for 
Armenia's contribution to the Katrina relief effort.  The 
Ambassador then stressed the importance of conducting a free 
and fair referendum in November on Armenia's constitutional 
amendments.  Next, the Ambassador presented USG plans for 
assistance to support free and fair elections in 2007 and 
2008, and Kocharian signaled his endorsement of such efforts. 
 In these connections, the Ambassador pointed out that 
improved democracy performance in Armenia was not only 
important to Kocharian's legacy, but also to Armenia's 
continuing eligibility for MCA (Millennium Challenge Account) 
resources.  Following a brief discussion of the generally 
positive outcome of the Kocharian-Aliyev conversations in 
Kazan, the Ambassador and Kocharian discussed the upcoming 
USATF (Assistance Task Force) meeting in Washington.  USAID 
Director Robin Phillips participated.  END SUMMARY. 
 
KATRINA CONTRIBUTION 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (U) The Ambassador opened the meeting by expressing 
President Bush's thanks for Armenia's offer of search and 
rescue forces, and the $200,000 cash donation to support the 
U.S. in the Katrina relief effort.  The Ambassador indicated 
that, although the former offer was not taken up, the USG 
very much appreciated both.  Kocharian said it was a small 
gesture, and pointed out that global climate change appeared 
to be negatively affecting many countries. 
 
SUPPORTING DEMOCRACY-BUILDING 
----------------------------- 
 
3.  (S) The Ambassador reminded Kocharian that the Council of 
Europe, The European Union, the OSCE, and the Embassy had 
recently supported Kocharian's government's proposed 
constitutional amendments, including the Ambassador's local 
op-ed piece on the subject.  The Ambassador also mentioned 
that he had met individually with a number of key leaders of 
opposition parties to attempt to persuade them of the merits 
of supporting the constitutional amendments, and to tell them 
that it is important to get the "rules of the game" 
established, and to then fight the good political fight on 
the basis of those rules.  The Ambassador also listed three 
possible outcomes of the November referendum on the 
amendments: (a) the amendments pass with a fair and free 
referendum; (b) the amendments do not pass; or (c) the 
amendments pass, but with irregularities in the conduct of 
the referendum, followed by demonstrations, possible 
provocations and police overreaction to them.  The Ambassador 
said this third outcome would be decidedly bad for Armenia 
and its international reputation, and could jeopardize the 
future of any MCA compact.  Kocharian responded that he had 
little to lose with either the first or second outcome, so 
that there was no need to consider the third as a 
possibility.  He also said that he was above directing any 
inappropriate intervention in the referendum.  The Ambassador 
responded that even inappropriate intervention by lower-level 
government forces could tarnish the government's image and 
set things back. 
 
4.  (S) The Ambassador then unveiled our proposed USG-funded 
plan to support Armenia's 2007 (parliamentary) and 2008 
(presidential) elections, handing Kocharian a one-page 
summary of the program.  The Ambassador stressed that a key 
element to the success of the program would be developing an 
accurate voters' registry, and said that those in the GOAM 
currently working on such a registry (elements of OVIR and 
the police) have thus far rebuffed offers of external 
technical assistance.  Kocharian strongly endorsed an 
accurate registry, and on the spot directed his attendant 
personal advisor to be in touch with the authorities now 
working on the registry to discuss the USG assistance with US 
experts next week. 
 
5.  (S) Kocharian expressed concern regarding NDI's (the 
National Democratic Institute's) implementing the proposed 
election support program.  (COMMENT:  Embassy believes that 
Kocharian's concern is partially related to frequent press 
speculation, here and elsewhere, that NDI has figured 
prominently in the region's recent "revolutions". END 
COMMENT.)  The Ambassador responded that the proposed program 
would be implemented not only by NDI, but also by IRI (the 
International Republican Institute) and IFES (the 
International Foundation for Electoral Systems).  The 
Ambassador also reminded Kocharian that the Embassy had 
frequently gone on the record saying that Armenia must build 
and perfect its democracy through hard work within the law, 
not resorting to "revolution," and that all elements of the 
USG were in accord on this.   Kocharian complained that the 
opposition constantly stated, and seemed to believe, that 
NDI's "support for revolution" was a subtext of U.S. policy 
here.  To this, the Ambassador responded that in his contacts 
with the opposition, he had made it very clear that the USG 
was not seeking to foment revolution in Armenia. 
 
6.  (S) The Ambassador also mentioned that for FY 2006, it 
appeared that Armenia may fare less well on some of the 
"Ruling Justly" MCA (Millennium Challenge Account) indicators 
than in the two preceding years, and suggested that USAID 
Director Phillips brief the President on this point in 
greater detail.  Kocharian was interested in this aspect, and 
appeared to absorb this indication that Armenia may not be 
performing as well as he had thought previously.  The 
Ambassador stated that an honest constitutional amendment 
referendum, and clear GOAM moves toward free and fair 
elections in 2007 and 2008 was what was needed in this 
context.   The Ambassador repeated that the United States 
wanted to help Armenia achieve the goal of holding free and 
fair elections in 2007, and urged Kocharian to identify 
himself with our efforts.  He noted that, on May 11, 
Azerbaijani President Aliyev had issued a special decree on 
free and fair elections, and that this might be something to 
think about also for Armenia. 
 
KAZAN 
----- 
 
7.  (S) The Ambassador said readouts he had had on the Kazan 
meeting indicated that Kocharian had shown some flexibility, 
which had been noticed.  Kocharian responded that he had 
opted for a "waiting period," because he believed that 
President Aliyev was currently assuming a more reasonable 
negotiating position on Nagorno-Karabakh only because of the 
November elections in Azerbaijan.  Kocharian said it would be 
necessary to wait until after those elections to see what 
Aliyev's true intentions were.   The Ambassador and Kocharian 
agreed that there seemed indeed to be a window for possible 
forward movement in 2006, before the Armenian political scene 
started to heat up in the lead-up to the 2007 elections. 
 
ASSISTANCE AND REFORMS 
---------------------- 
 
8.  (S) Finally, the Ambassador indicated that he and USAID 
Director Phillips would be in Washington next week, for the 
USATF meeting, and asked if Kocharian had any message to 
convey to Washington.  Kocharian said he would be meeting 
with the Armenian delegation to the USATF before their 
departure.  He reiterated his commitment to reforms and 
thanked the U.S. Government, and USAID in particular, for 
their assistance over the years.  Kocharian ended the meeting 
by saying that he was not the kind of person who said things 
in order to be liked; he was direct and frank, and always 
appreciated it when one could have a candid and forthright 
exchange of views. 
EVANS