US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI3847

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003847 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: ELECTORAL COMMISSION 
CALLS FOR HALT TO CAMPAIGNS 
 
REF: A. (A) NAIROBI 3779 
     B. (B) NAIROBI 3643 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Following a day of disrupted civic 
education events on September 14, Samuel Kivuitu, Chairman of 
the Electoral Commission of Kenya, called for a moratorium on 
constitutional referendum campaigning until October 21, the 
beginning of the designated campaign period.  Kivuitu argued 
that the early (and intense) lobbying was interfering with 
the civic education effort to inform voters about the 
provisions of the draft constitution.  The Chairman's 
statement, prompted by concern over prospects for the success 
of the civic education program and the increased possibility 
of violence during the referendum, has not convinced 
politicians to rein in their efforts.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE CHAIRMAN'S APPEAL 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (U) In a half-page plea in September 15 newspapers, 
Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) Chairman Kivuitu reminded 
those campaigning for and against the draft constitution that 
the September 5 Kenya Gazette notice announcing November 21 
as the referendum date also specified the beginning of the 
"campaign period" as October 21 (ref B).  He argued that a 
delayed start to campaigning would allow for the Constitution 
of Kenya Review Commission (CKRC) to carry out its civic 
education program more effectively.  Without education, the 
Chairman asserted, voters would not be able to follow the 
debate and make an informed decision.  Calling on both 
politicians and voters to "support ECK's stand," Kivuitu 
added that heeding his appeal "will allow (for) orderly and 
respectable campaigns fit for a democratic" country.  (NOTE: 
The ECK has no mechanism through which it can enforce a 
moratorium on campaigning.  END NOTE.) 
 
"YES" AND "NO" UNFAZED 
---------------------- 
 
3.  (U) Kivuitu's statement, published the day before the 
first scheduled rally in favor of the proposed constitution, 
did little to dissuade the campaigners.  Anti-draft KANU 
Chairman Uhuru Kenyatta told PolAssistant that what Kivuitu 
said was of no consequence and that "we are continuing on," 
while Justice and Constitutional Affairs Assistant Minister 
Robinson Githae told the media that the "No" group had 
already toured the country, and those in favor of the current 
draft must also spread their message. 
 
CIVIC EDUCATION MEETS OPPOSITION 
-------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Just three days after the CKRC launched its civic 
education initiative (ref A), the program has become a 
flashpoint in the referendum debate.  A September 14 civic 
education event in Eldoret ended prematurely when shouting 
from the audience prevented CKRC Chairperson Abida Ali Aroni 
from speaking.  A separate CKRC education program in Kisumu 
was also disrupted as members of the crowd burned copies of 
the proposed draft after charging the stage with chairs, 
according to media reports.  Following Kivuitu's appeal for 
non-interference with civic education, KANU Secretary General 
William Ruto reportedly stated that the "government-driven" 
education was flawed because the curriculum was developed 
without consulting the political parties.  Raila Odinga, "No" 
leader and Transportation Minister, argued that the CKRC was 
not impartial and that the best preparation for Kenyan voters 
was instead a comparative presentation of the current 
proposed draft and the Bomas-approved draft. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Without legal authority, Kivuitu can do little more 
than request the "Yes" and "No" groups to kindly put off 
their campaigning, which they are not willing to do.  The 
possibility of violence during the referendum process is 
rising following the blows exchanged between politicians at a 
funeral (ref A), and as civic education becomes a source of 
friction instead of an antidote.  CKRC chairperson Aroni's 
perceived pro-draft bent has tainted the education program, 
which was scheduled to begin in earnest within a week of the 
September 12 launch, but now appears to be in jeopardy.  None 
of this bodes well for either a smooth run-up to or reasoned 
participation in the referendum.  END COMMENT. 
BELLAMY