US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1639

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001639 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, Elections, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  FIRST BATTLE OF PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: 
 WITHIN THE  SLFP? 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 1558 
 
     B. COLOMBO 1605 
 
Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Incumbent President Chandrika Bandaranaike 
Kumaratunga's angry public reaction to Sri Lanka Freedom 
Party (SLFP) presidential candidate and current Prime 
Minister Mahinda Rajapakse's electoral pacts with the 
Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and 
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) has ignited an ugly firestorm 
within the SLFP before the campaign has even officially 
begun.  The nasty public spat has set off renewed speculation 
that Kumaratunga may try to knock her own candidate off 
balance by dissolving Parliament ahead of presidential 
elections.  While the tiff is ostensibly focused on 
approaches to the peace process, the real battle may be about 
whether the President is prepared to relinquish her own and 
her family's grip on the party.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U)  After Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) presidential 
candidate and current Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse signed 
an electoral pact with the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha 
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) on September 8 that promised to 
reverse key parts of incumbent President Chandrika 
Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's policy on the peace process, local 
newspapers on September 10 prominently featured Kumaratunga's 
very angry--and very public--response to the PM's 
free-lancing.  Just before leaving for the UN General 
Assembly, Kumaratunga told local journalists that clauses in 
the Rajapakse/JVP agreement (Ref A)--especially those 
pledging to scrap the Post-Tsunami Operational Management 
Structure (P-TOMS) and "preserve the unitary nature of the 
Sri Lankan State"--violated SLFP policies and had not been 
cleared by the party's Central Committee.  Kumaratunga hinted 
strongly that the party manifesto--which has not yet been 
finalized and which she still controls as party head--could 
likely end up directly contravening many elements in the 
pact.  Finally, she complained bitterly that Rajapakse had 
failed to inform her properly of his plans to ally with her 
erstwhile coalition partner.  (Comment:  She might not have 
been properly informed, but she could hardly have been 
surprised.  As noted Ref A, the JVP had been broadcasting its 
agreement with Rajapakse more than a week before the actual 
signing.)  Contents of a letter from Kumaratunga to Rajapakse 
reprimanding him for the JVP pact and warning him against 
signing a similar agreement with the "extremist" Jathika Hela 
Urumaya (JHU) were leaked to the press--and duly 
headlined--the following day.  Apparently not taking the 
warning to heart, on September 13 Rajapakse signed an 
agreement with the JHU that featured similar commitments to 
uphold the "unitary" nature of Sri Lanka, abandon the P-TOMS, 
and renegotiate the Ceasefire Agreement. 
 
3.  (U) Not to be left out, Foreign Minister and Presidential 
brother Anura Bandaranaike chimed in with his own belligerent 
comments to the press.  Local newspapers on September 13 
quoted the Foreign Minister (who lost out to Rajapakse in his 
own bid to secure the presidential nomination) as asserting 
that he and his older sister had "lost interest" in the 
election because of the PM's cavalier disregard for party 
policies.  (Note:  Bandaranaike could not, however, complain, 
as his sister did, that he was not properly informed of the 
agreement with the JVP--especially since he attended the 
September 8 signing ceremony.  End note.)  In a follow-up 
interview published in the local press on September 16, 
Bandaranaike said that the party would "closely review" the 
PM's agreements with the JVP and JHU.   The seeming 
intra-party rift has fueled fresh speculation that the peeved 
President may try to torpedo Rajapakse's campaign by 
dissolving Parliament ahead of presidential elections. 
(Note:  The date of the presidential elections remains 
undetermined.  An announcement by the Election Commissioner 
is expected early next week.) 
 
4.  (C)  Comment:  Before the PM signed the agreements with 
the JVP and JHU, Kumaratunga's support for her would-be 
successor could best be described as tepid.  Her most recent 
public criticisms, however, make her sound like a more 
vigorous opposition campaigner than the rival United National 
Party (UNP).  Fast nearing the end of her 11-year reign as 
President, Kumaratunga is obviously concerned about her 
legacy and has no wish to see her initiatives, however 
unsuccessful or late in the day, to advance the peace process 
repudiated by her successor.  Moreover, even if she has to 
step aside as President after two terms, there is no term 
limit on control of the party, and Kumaratunga apparently has 
no intention of ceding that post, which has been a family 
fiefdom since the SLFP's inception, to a non-Bandaranaike. 
Most observers agree that the impending presidential race 
between the SLFP's Rajapakse and the UNP candidate Ranil 
Wickremesinghe will be close.  For now, however, the first 
real battle of this presidential election seems to be 
internal. 
LUNSTEAD