US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA8695

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 008695 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CO 
SUBJECT: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRO-URIBE POLITICAL PARTIES 
 
REF: A. BOGOTA 4467 
 
     B. 04 BOGOTA 11705 
 
Classified By: Charge Milton K. Drucker, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Four center-right political parties -- 
Radical Change, National Unity, Democratic Colombia, and the 
Conservatives -- are vying to be the lead vehicle for 
President Uribe's reelection drive.  While all are viable 
electorally, the continued existence of National Unity and 
Democratic Colombia depends in large part on the 
Constitutional Court's allowing reelection legislation to 
stand.  President Uribe has said several times that 
paramilitaries convicted of serious crimes are legally 
prohibited from serving in Congress, a position supported by 
Prosecutor General Mario Iguaran and other legal experts (but 
not an unanimous opinion).  Paramilitary political supporters 
continue to vie for invitations to run for Congress, however, 
including under the banner of pro-Uribe parties.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) In late August, former Finance Minister (under 
Andres Pastrana) and current Presidential advisor Juan Manuel 
Santos and Uribista Senator Oscar Ivan Zuluaga announced the 
formation of the newest pro-Uribe political party, called 
National Unity (Unidad Nacional).  Some 45 leading members of 
Congress, many of whom broke with the Officialist Liberal 
Party (PLC) to vote for legislation to permit Presidential 
reelection (Ref B), formally joined the movement.  In 
essence, a handful of micro parties on the center-right 
aligned to form National Unity.  At the National Unity 
announcement ceremony (which President Uribe did not attend), 
leaders highlighted the electoral strength of the affiliated 
members of Congress.  In addition, National Unity promised to 
attain double the number of votes of another nascent 
pro-Uribe party, Radical Change (Cambio Radical), led by 
Senator German Vargas Lleras, in Congressional elections to 
be held on March 12.  During the second week of September, 
Democratic Colombia (Colombia Democratica), led by Senator 
Mario Uribe, President Uribe's first cousin and long-time 
political counterpart and ally, announced a potential fusion 
with "Wings" (Alas), a small center-right movement headed by 
fellow Senator Leonor Serrano.  The long-standing 
Conservative Party (Partido Conservador Colombiano, PCC), an 
erstwhile Uribe ally currently under the direction of Senator 
Carlos Holguin, continues to operate under the presumption 
that reelection will stand, and that the party's faithful 
will vote, in a (date yet to be determined) national 
referendum, to support Uribe as its official candidate in 
2006.  The Conservatives have been on record asking that 
Uribe replace VP Francisco Santos with a Conservative VP 
running mate. 
 
3.  (SBU) Vocal pro-paramilitary political actors, like 
Representatives Rocio Arias and Eleonora Pineda, continue to 
vie for invitations to run for Congress.  While Santos stated 
that paramilitaries were not welcome in his party, and 
blackballed both Arias and Pineda, immediate past House 
Speaker Zulema Jattin, a member of National Unity, publicly 
invited a prominent demobilized paramilitary member to run 
for Congress under the UN label.  (Note:  The paramilitary in 
question, Jairo Andres Angarita, was the number two of the 
AUC's Sinu-San Jorge Bloc, formerly led by Salvatorre 
Mancuso.  He demobilized in early 2005 and was processed 
under Law 782, for having committed only minor, pardonable 
crimes.  End Note.)  In an interview in leading daily El 
Tiempo on September 10, Senator Uribe, head of Democratic 
Colombia, welcomed members of Congress sympathetic to 
paramilitary interests into his party.  Senator Uribe was 
quoted as saying "after December 31, we will no longer have 
paras (paramilitaries), we will have demobilized who may be 
candidates and eventually be elected." 
 
4.  (C) President Uribe has said on a number of occasions 
that paramilitary leaders guilty of serious crimes will not 
be legally permitted to serve in Congress.  Prosecutor 
General Iguaran and former vice minister of Justice Rafael 
Nieto endorsed this legal analysis in recent speeches and 
meetings, though others, such as former Supreme Judicial 
Council (Consejo Superior de la Judicatura; the judicial 
branch's administrative and disciplinary arm) head Gilberto 
Orozco, have demurred. 
 
5.  (C) Comment:  The continued existence of National Unity 
and Democratic Colombia is largely contingent on the 
Constitutional Court allowing reelection to stand.  A Court 
decision adverse to President Uribe would send most of the 
two parties' members scurrying back to the Officialist 
Liberal Party, the original political base of the majority. 
Vargas Lleras, by most accounts, is hedging his bets, 
supporting President Uribe publicly yet working his 
substantial media connections to garner regular, positive, 
and prominent personal coverage, in the event reelection dies 
and he enters the 2006 Presidential contest.  Electoral laws 
permit alliances of parties for the Presidential election. 
However, one party would appear as the lead vehicle for Uribe 
on the ballot.  As such, much of the current jockeying is a 
battle of political egos.  In addition, new and complex rules 
will take effect in upcoming Congressional elections (Ref A), 
and Congressional aspirants are brooding over their safest 
electoral options. 
DRUCKER