US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7230

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007230 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, IN, PK, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: WHITHER THE BJP? 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 5685 
     B. NEW DELHI 5216 
     C. NEW DELHI 4447 
     D. NEW DELHI 4315 
     E. NEW DELHI 4270 
     F. NEW DELHI 4232 
 
Classified By: CDA Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Well-documented divisions (reftels) have 
recently prevented the BJP from fulfilling its role as 
India's leading opposition party and led to a string of 
electoral defeats.  The latest "crisis" was the expulsion and 
reinstatement of BJP leader Madan Lal Khurana.  The core 
issue is whether the Sangh Parivar (Hindu family of parties) 
will capture the party or allow it to adopt a more moderate 
course.  The party will continue to decline until this issue 
is resolved.  The BJP's vituperative attack on PM Singh's 
comments during a meeting with President Bush reflects this 
malaise, and the readiness to jump on any issue that presents 
itself.  The party leadership will meet in Chennai September 
16-18 in an attempt to address its internal issues.  If it 
fails to resolve this crisis, the BJP can expect continued 
decline and likely defeat in a crucial electoral contest in 
Bihar in mid October.  BJP problems have already impacted the 
Indian political system.  The Left Front (LF) has moved to 
occupy some of the opposition vacuum, and some within the 
Left and regional parties have begun speculating about the 
formation of a "third front" to replace the BJP as the 
opposition leader (septel).  Despite these developments, the 
BJP should not be counted out, and it could still revive, 
resume its place as India's leading opposition party and 
return to power in New Delhi.  End Summary. 
 
Still More Divisions 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) When in power, the BJP often appeared monolithic 
and disciplined.  Since being ousted from New Delhi, the 
Sangh Parivar has fractured.  Although the party had been 
deeply divided for some time, the rift first became public 
when the RSS expressed its displeasure at the party's aging 
leadership duo of Party President LK Advani and former PM 
Atal Behari Vajpayee and called for their replacement. 
Advani fueled the flames with his unexpectedly conciliatory 
remarks on Pakistani founder Muhammad ali Jinnah during his 
May-June trip to Pakistan (reftel F). 
 
3.  (U) Advani's resignation as BJP President and subsequent 
reinstatement only increased the sense of desperation.  Most 
political pundits inside and outside the party doubt that 
Advani will be able to hold on and expect he will be forced 
to again resign for a final time later this year.  The 
question is not if, but rather when.  With his resignation 
imminent, and no clear successor waiting in the wings, the 
BJP has become locked in a leadership struggle that has 
energized ambitious leaders and their various factions. 
Second tier leaders are staking their claims as best 
qualified to rejuvenate the party and lead it to victory. 
 
Khurana as Bellwether: Modi Litmus Test 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) The latest episode in the protracted factionalism 
concerned the BJP's long-time political chieftain and former 
Chief Minister Madan lal Khurana, who was expelled from the 
BJP on September 11, and reinstated within 90 minutes after 
submitting a letter of "apology" to the party on September 
12.  Khurana's fate was never the real issue.  Indian media 
and political pundits avidly followed the issue since it 
could provide an indicator whether the BJP will become the 
political mouthpiece of the Sangh Parivar (Hindu nationalist 
family of parties), or evolve into a more conventional 
opposition party. 
 
5.  (C) Advani expelled Khurana for criticizing Gujarat Chief 
Minister Narendra Modi, the poster child of the Sangh 
Parivar.  Advani's position was that Khurana exhibited a lack 
of "discipline," by questioning the party's failure to rein 
in Modi and restrain his excesses.  Under Modi's leadership, 
Gujarat has become deeply divided between Modi's opponents 
and supporters, and Advani has not intervened to resolve the 
issue. 
 
6.  (C) Despite Advani's long association with the RSS and 
his moves to placate them by supporting Modi, the 
organization and its Sangh allies have determined that Advani 
must be removed and replaced with someone more amenable to 
their agenda.  Should they succeed, it would indicate that 
the Hindutva Wing has succeeded in its long-term goal of 
capturing the BJP, dooming the party to the political 
wilderness. 
 
7.  (C)  Former PM Vajpayee, who has long mediated between 
the Sangh Parivar and others within the BJP, tried to play 
the same role in the Khurana affair.  He first criticized 
Advani for being too hasty in expelling Khurana, then 
demanded that Khurana "apologize" before reinstatement, and 
lastly papered-over his differences with Advani, calling him 
"a friend, a colleague and the party president," and saying 
"we work together and we should always do so." In actuality, 
Vajpayee's flip-flops indicate the extent to which he has 
lost the reins of the party. 
 
Vacuum At the Top 
------------------ 
 
8.  (C) The recurring "crises" in the BJP reflect a power 
vacuum at the top.  Party President Advani has been forced on 
the defensive by the Sangh Parivar's repeated attacks. 
Consumed with his own defense and lacking reliable 
lieutenants, he has been unable to manage the day to day 
working of the party or devise an effective strategy to 
combat upcoming elections or return the BJP to power in New 
Delhi.  Sensing Advani's weakness and imminent departure, 
party leaders have stepped up their own campaigns to grab 
power, not only to replace Advani, but to carve out power 
bases in the states and define the BJP's future. 
 
9.  (C)  As a result, the BJP's state units mirror the scene 
in New Delhi, with factions fighting for dominance.  In 
addition to the bitter feud in Gujarat, the Uttar Pradesh BJP 
is so deeply divided that it has all but disappeared as a 
force in the country's largest state.  In Madhya Pradesh, 
former Chief Minister Uma Bharati and her supporters are 
openly working to remove the BJP Chief Minister Babulal Gaur. 
 Similar inter-BJP battles are taking place in Rajasthan, 
Jharkhand, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Himachal 
Pradesh and J&K, and most importantly in Bihar, which goes to 
the polls on October 19. 
 
Looking for Issues 
------------------ 
 
10.  (C) With the BJP in a deep malaise, it is having trouble 
presenting a coherent and unified front in opposition to UPA 
policies.  In an unusual move indicating its desperation, the 
party has stepped up criticism of UPA conduct of the India-US 
relationship.  On September 14 prominent BJP leaders 
including former External Affairs Ministers Yashwant Sinha 
and Jaswant Singh attacked PM Singh for "discussing domestic 
politics" during his meeting with President Bush.  Claiming 
that the Prime Minister had singled out former PM Vajpayee 
for being "sharply critical" of the recent US-India 
agreement, Jaswant Singh emphasized that "all established 
conventions, mutual regard and due courtesy demand that 
domestic politics not be made a subject of discussion by our 
PM when visiting abroad."  BJP Vice President Mukhtar Abbas 
Naqvi told the press that the party would issue a separate 
statement on the Prime Minister's "conduct" of foreign 
relations.  We expect the BJP to be similarly quick in 
jumping on any perceived mishandling of the Indo-Pak 
relationship for electoral advantage. 
 
The Party Leadership Conclave 
----------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) There are several key events that will in the coming 
months provide indicators as to where the BJP is headed.  One 
is the BJP leadership conference now scheduled for September 
16-18 in Chennai.  Media and political observers are 
predicting that swords could be drawn at the meeting.  The 
Sangh Parivar could use this venue to make its move to unseat 
Advani, forcing Vajpayee to play a mediating role to paper 
over differences. 
 
Electoral Battlegrounds 
----------------------- 
 
12.  (C) The other key indicator is upcoming state elections. 
 To demonstrate its political viability, the BJP must halt 
its electoral tailspin.  If it cannot produce victories, its 
support could dry up, as the money and politicians move on to 
parties with better electoral track records and a better 
ability to secure and distribute government patronage.  The 
upcoming Bihar election could be a key indicator.  RJD boss 
and Railway Minister Lallu Prasad Yadav is pulling out all 
stops to return to power in the state.  One of the keystones 
of his campaign is an appeal to Bihar Muslims to freeze the 
BJP "communalists" out of power.  Should the BJP fail to meet 
the Lallu onslaught and go down in defeat, it will increase 
the party's downward momentum. 
 
13.  (SBU) Another key electoral battleground could be UP, 
where the government could fall at any time.  Although we 
doubt the party will move until its position is assured, 
Congress activists continue to threaten to use the Governor 
to dismiss the UP government and bring on an election.  On 
September 14, Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav alleged that 
Congress is plotting to use a fatal outbreak of Japanese 
Encephalitis as an excuse to dismiss his government, while 
the UP Congress continues to assert that the state's 
deteriorating law and order situation has made it 
ungovernable.  Should an election be called in UP, the BJP 
would not be a serious contender.  Press reports quoted a 
"senior BJP functionary" in that state as confirming that the 
BJP is in "complete disarray" and there is a "total lack of 
any united movement." 
 
Comment: Where Do We Go From Here? 
---------------------------------- 
 
14. (C) Recent BJP turmoil has no doubt weakened the party. 
Public airing of internal problems is a dramatic shift in BJP 
behavior and points to a power struggle the likes of which 
the party has not seen in many years.  The BJP downturn has 
already prevented it from playing the role of an effective 
opposition, allowing the Left Front (LF) to step in to fill 
the opposition vacuum.  It has also led some in the regional 
and left parties to examine the possibility that they could 
take advantage of this situation to formulate a "third front" 
to grab power (septel). 
 
15.  (C) However, despite its deep and persistent problems, 
predictions of the BJP's permanent demise are premature.  The 
long-awaited generational shift in leadership when Advani 
resigns, likely before the end of 2005, could still energize 
the beleaguered party, and the BJP's several year run of 
electoral success demonstrates that there is a current of 
Hindu nationalism in Indian society waiting to be tapped. 
Also relevant is the Congress Party's ability to avoid the 
pattern of corruption, dynastic politics and patronage-based 
administration that dragged down earlier governments.  The 
near term outcome hinges on whether the BJP will choose a 
more radical successor, further weakening the party by taking 
it away from its the moderate masses, or elect a centrist, 
who will follow in Vajpayee's footsteps and strengthen the 
party under a "Hindutva Light" agenda with a greater focus on 
economic reform, development, and pragmatic administration. 
PYATT