US embassy cable - 05CAIRO7189

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007189 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, EG, EU 
SUBJECT: ENGAGING "LIKE-MINDED" NATIONS ON INTERNATIONAL 
OBSERVATION OF EGYPT'S UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Emboffs have reached out to key members of 
Cairo's diplomatic community to urge public and private 
support for international observers in the run up to the 
parliamentary elections.  We have spoken with a visiting UK 
Cabinet Secretariat team; a joint meeting of poloffs from ten 
"like-minded" embassies; and a visiting EU delegation that is 
exploring the feasibility of an international observer 
mission for the parliamentary elections.  Our interlocutors 
agree that an international observer mission would be a major 
positive development, and they have watched with interest our 
efforts to persuade the GOE to invite international 
observers.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C)  Poloff met UK poloff and UK Cabinet Secretariat 
officers on September 13 for a review of the September 7 
election.  Poloff explained that, despite the GOE's refusal 
to invite an international observer mission, we were pleased 
that USG-supported domestic monitors had played a key role in 
the September 7 election observation.  Poloff explained the 
role played by NDI and IRI assessment teams (which in lieu of 
international observation teams nevertheless advance the goal 
of international engagement with Egypt's electoral process) 
and noted our firm intention to try again to convince the GOE 
to invite international monitors for the parliamentary 
elections. 
 
3.  (C)  In a meeting later on September 13 with 
"like-minded" poloffs from the French, British, Norwegian, 
Swedish, Belgian, Dutch, Swiss, Italian, Danish, and 
Australian embassies, poloff reiterated the points already 
made separately to the British regarding the success of 
domestic monitoring efforts, the role of the NDI/IRI teams, 
and the need to take another run at the question of 
international observation. 
 
4.  (C)  Finally, in a September 14 meeting with EC 
Delegation Charge and a visiting six-person team from 
Brussels--which has spent several days in Cairo exploring the 
feasibility of mounting an EU observation team for the 
parliamentary elections--DCM, ECPO Counselor, and poloffs 
reviewed our efforts on monitoring in connection with the 
presidential election and noted our plan to push ahead with 
support for domestic and international monitors.  The EU team 
noted that their purpose in Cairo was threefold: 
 
--"fact-finding" about the just completed presidential and 
upcoming parliamentary elections; 
 
--exploring the medium to long-term possibilities for 
electoral assistance, including in such areas as civic 
education and candidate training; and 
 
--exploring the prospects for an EU observation mission for 
the parliamentary elections. 
 
5.  (C)  In the wide-ranging discussion that ensued, the EU 
team made several key points: 
 
--The EU's internal guidelines for how to conduct 
international monitoring missions are designed to maximize 
the access, impartiality and credibility of any EU monitoring 
mission. 
 
--"Agreement (i.e., from the GOE) is indispensable for us," 
the EU Charge noted.  The EU would not consider an 
observation/monitoring mission without the support of the 
host government. 
 
--They believed that while the USG and EU should closely 
coordinate on our respective approaches to the GOE, they did 
not favor joint demarches, which they argued are poorly 
received by the GOE. 
 
--The delegation members noted that European Parliamentarians 
may also consider coming to assess the parliamentary 
elections.  They noted that ideally the EU MPs would 
piggyback on a larger technical observation mission, but that 
even if a technical observation mission did not materialize, 
some EU MPs might choose to visit Egypt for the parliamentary 
elections.  The problem with the latter scenario, opined the 
delegation, was that it combined a partial, non-expert 
assessment with the relatively high-profile of EU MPs who 
might issue statements on less than full information. 
 
--Perhaps trying to diminish expectations, the delegation 
told us that if the 2005 parliamentary elections go off as 
expected (i.e., with the customary intimidation, rigging, and 
general messiness), they wonder about the value of trying to 
mount an observation mission.  They argued that unless there 
is a realistic expectation that the 2005 parliamentary 
elections will mark an advance in Egypt's nascent democracy 
(instead of merely business as usual), a formal international 
observation mission would simply confirm everyone's worst 
fears.  (We countered that the simple occurence of proper 
internation observation would be a major development, which 
the EU team acknowledged.) 
 
--Egyptian political party representatives, civil society 
representatives, and other non-governmental players had all 
met with and briefed the EU delegation.  The GOE had 
cancelled appointments with key officials at the MFA, 
Justice, and Interior, however. 
 
--The EU team further noted that eight weeks is the minimum 
time needed to organize such a mission, but said that a 
comprehensive effort, albeit under rushed conditions, could 
still be organized six weeks ahead of the elections. 
 
6.  (C)  Comment:  The EU delegation did not seem optimistic 
that they would receive an invitation from the GOE to conduct 
a proper observation mission, but their presence in Cairo 
suggests that they are willing to give it a try.  They also 
noted that NEA DAS Carpenter will hold a video conference 
with EU officials in Brussels on Monday, September 18. 
Septel lays out our current thinking on the tactics we 
recommend to get international observers for the 
parliamentary elections.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
RICCIARDONE