US embassy cable - 02HARARE2336

UNCLAS HARARE 002336 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PGOV, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: PUBLIC OPINION POLL REVISITED 
 
REF: HARARE 02265 
 
 1. This cable is to provide clarification on the comparison 
of the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) poll and the 
Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) results as described 
in REFTEL.  ZESN election results are based on official 
Zimbabwe Registrar General election results.  ZESN is not an 
independent polling or survey organization.  It is a 
coalition of thirty-eight non-governmental organizations 
formed to coordinate activities pertaining to elections.  For 
the 2002 presidential election results, ZESN collected, 
compared, and synthesized media and government reports on 
election results and disseminated their findings to the 
public.  No organization could do an independent assessment 
of the voting or voter rolls because the government never 
provided an NGO or opposition parties with voters rolls. 
ZESN might have been better able to provide an independent 
assessment had more people been accredited as domestic 
observers.  Of the 12,500 names submitted, only 420 people 
were accredited. 
 
2. In light of the source of ZESN electoral data, the fact 
that ZESN reported 43.1 percent of people voted for MDC and 
56.9 percent voted for ZANU-PF is not surprising, does not 
reflect an independent assessment, and does not necessarily 
contradict MPOI survey results (30.5 percent MDC and 27.4 
percent ZANU-PF). 
 
3. Despite these shortcomings, the ZESN Zimbabwe Presidential 
Elections March 2002 report, released in April, does 
highlight some irregularities in the compilation of the voter 
rolls. The report cites a study conducted by Probe Market 
Research (PMR), an affiliate of Gallup International Poll 
Group, which suggested an over inflation of the number of 
possible people on the voters roll.  According to PMR, a 100 
percent voter registration would be 3.6 million names and not 
the 5.6 million claimed by the government.  PMR claims that 
there could only have been 4.8 million potential voters in 
the country but given HIV/AIDS and economic migration from 
Zimbabwe, the total figure was likely lower.  (Note: PMR 
referred to an anonymous 1997 study as the basis of its 
calculations.  Using a methodology similar to that described 
by PMR and using U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, 
there would be more than 5.8 potential voters in the country 
versus the 4.8 PMR claims.  A 100 percent voter registration, 
even against the backdrop of AIDS and economic migration, 
would also be more than PMR,s estimates but not as high as 
the GOZs announced registrants numbers.  End Note.) 
 
4. A comparison of registered voters between 1995 and 2002 
shows some interesting movements.  The number of registered 
voters was smaller in Bulawayo in 2002 than 2000 while in the 
pro-ZANU-PF provinces registered voter populations increased 
by more than 40,000.  From 1995 to 2002, Mashonaland Central 
and Midlands had increases in voter numbers of more than 
100,000 people compared to 50,000 in Matebeleland, an MDC 
stronghold.  Harare also had a sizeable increase in the 
number of registered voters between 2000 and 2002. 
 
5. Comment: The Government of Zimbabwe,s refusal to provide 
the voters roll to NGOs or the opposition parties makes any 
sort of independent post-election analysis difficult.  While 
ZESN attempts to provide an independent assessment of the 
electoral process, it falls short because it was not provided 
with complete data.  The ZESN report does have its merits in 
that it provides data on previous elections so that some 
comparisons are possible.  End comment. 
SULLIVAN