US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3822

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003822 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW, Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT:  Great Southern Expectations for KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
  1.  Summary (SBU):  Although Speaker of the Legislative 
  Yuan Wang Jin-pyng's main constituency is in Kaohsiung 
  County, Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, much to the surprise 
  of most KMT supporters, defeated Wang Jin-pyng in the KMT 
  Chairman election in Southern Taiwan. Voters here, 
  putting a new premium on "clean government," expressed a 
  hope that the KMT can reform and that scandals in Taiwan 
  can begin to fade rather than to continuously erupt. 
  End Summary. 
 
  2. (SBU) Elected KMT officials in Kaohsiung County and 
  their supporters have told AIT/K that Ma Ying-jeou's 
  victory in the KMT Chairman election is proof that people 
  expect clean politics and hope that the KMT will reform. 
  Ma was elected despite the fact he had no substantial 
  access to grass root members of the party, particularly 
  in southern Taiwan, to campaign for him and despite 
  lacking the central party organization support possessed 
  by Wang Jin-pyng. On the other hand, Wang Jin-pyng's loss 
  may just be attributed to his long political career, 
  which began in 1975, and his broader connections in the 
  Party that link him inevitably to "black-gold" and the 
  "old-KMT." 
 
  3.  (U) The following is the voting rate in southern 
cities/counties, which Ma won by a surprising margin: 
 
Kaohsiung City:      Ma - 75.28%       Wang - 23.30% 
Chiayi County:       Ma - 59.81%       Wang - 38.77% 
Chiayi City:         Ma - 74.10%       Wang - 25.07% 
Tainan County:       Ma - 60.19%       Wang - 38.43% 
Tainan City:         Ma - 76.15%       Wang - 22.75% 
Kaohsiung County:    Ma - 54.17%       Wang - 44.90% 
Pingtung County:     Ma - 63.85%       Wang - 35.12% 
Penghu County:       Ma - 66.65%       Wang - 31.96% 
Taitung County:      Ma - 76.06%       Wang - 22.94% 
 
 
  4.  (U) Ma's election by such broad margins, according to 
  local KMT sources, reflects the public's disappointment 
  in the recent cases of corruption that have surfaced in 
  President Chen's administration. There is a sense in the 
  south among Wang Jin-pyng supporters that Ma, although 
  his "clean image" makes him unsuitable to actually run 
  the KMT's assets, makes him the "great hope" for the KMT 
  to reform the party and retake the presidency.  This 
  island-wide desire for "clean government," personified by 
  Ma Ying-jeou, may be the force that can sweep Ma to the 
  presidency and other KMT politicians into local 
  positions.  Wang supporters in the south, while agreeing 
  Wang would still be a better and more savvy KMT leader, 
  voted for Ma because of the party's current "need" for a 
  fighting chance against the DPP.  Rather than the vote 
  for Ma signaling a lack of support for Wang, it actually 
  heralded a move to place ideas above personalities. 
 
  5.  (SBU)  KMT sources stated repeatedly that in order to 
  prove to people that the KMT will reform and will bring a 
  better, cleaner political environment, Ma's main task is 
  now to nominate candidates who are free from allegations 
  of corruption and who present a fresh vision for the 
  future of the party.  While KMT sources offered no 
  particular names of candidates who might fit that 
  description, they did note that only after the results of 
  future elections -- the first of which will be the 
  December 3 mayoral/magistrate elections - will Ma 
  determine whether the people approve of his performance 
  as Chairman of the KMT.  His personal campaign efforts 
  for Southern KMT candidates in future elections will be a 
  test to see how far south his immaculate coattails really 
  extend. 
 
  6. (SBU)  During AIT/K's visits to local DPP offices in 
  the 2004 presidential election, some of the DPP local 
  chairmen in Southern Taiwan stated that the local DPP 
  would have had far more difficulty campaigning for 
  President Chen if Ma were the KMT presidential candidate. 
 
  7. (SBU)  A DPP Kaohsiung party official admitted to 
  AIT/K on September 6, 2005, that they have received 
  numerous complaints from their supporters. Supporters 
  have accused the DPP administration of being as corrupt 
  as the previous KMT administration and have characterized 
  DPP politicians as being connected with "black-gold". 
  This DPP official criticized DPP politicians and 
  officials, stating that some of them "forget their ideals 
  after gaining power and position".  He expressed 
  disappointment in politics, but stated, "We cannot live 
  without politics." 
  8.  (SBU) Comment.  Ma's surprisingly strong showing indicates 
  that he, or the ideal he represents, has more of an 
  island-wide appeal than most people, perhaps including 
  himself, had realized.  Oddly enough, the DPP seems to 
  have realized that what Ma represents and the cleanliness 
  attributed to Ma by the people is far more dangerous than 
  the man himself.  DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang, on a trip 
  to boost local candidates in I-lan county, recently 
  stated "We [DPP] will win if we have good performance in 
  local areas.  So our biggest enemy is ourselves, not Ma 
  Ying-jeou."  End comment. 
 
  THIELE 
 
  KEEGAN