US embassy cable - 05ANKARA5357

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005357 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TU, IZ, Iraq 
SUBJECT: TURKEY GENERALLY UNHAPPY WITH DRAFT IRAQI 
CONSTITUTION, BUT ESCHEWS STRONG PUBLIC STAND 
 
REF: A. STATE 158420 
     B. ANKARA 4965 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Timothy A. Betts for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The GOT is generally unhappy with the draft 
Iraqi constitution; chief concerns are Sunni Arab 
participation, Kirkuk, and official recognition of the 
Kurdistan region.  The Turks see all of these issues as 
tending to pull the country apart, which would be seen as an 
existential threat to Turkey.  Nevertheless, the Turks have 
chosen to take a relatively low-key approach and to watch the 
process unfold.  End summary. 
 
MFA Spokesman Speaks, but No Formal Statement 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) The GOT has yet to release an official statement on 
the draft Iraqi constitution; MFA officials told us recently 
that they would prefer not to release a statement at this 
time.  However, MFA spokesman Namik Tan was relatively 
unhelpful in his comments to the press on Aug. 31, 
complaining about Sunni Arab participation, Kirkuk, and the 
draft's official endorsement of the Kurdistan region.  Tan 
said, "The struggle for dominance in Kirkuk could bring 
conflict and clashes to the rest of the country" and asked 
that the UN play a prominent role in resolving competing 
claims there.  (NOTE: This is a long-standing Turkish desire. 
 END NOTE.)  Tan took a hard line on the Kurdistan region, 
saying "Everyone knows no region called Kurdistan exists." 
(NOTE: While this statement was widely reported, the GOT's 
Deputy Special Envoy for Iraq, Ethem Tokdemir, observed to us 
that Tan had quickly corrected himself, saying there was no 
"state" called Kurdistan.  END NOTE.)  While noting some 
problems with Sunni Arab participation in the process, he 
added that some Sunnis have voiced their acceptance of the 
draft, and Turkey will follow closely the process leading up 
to the Oct. 15 referendum.  Since Tan's press conference, 
Turkey's leadership has said little in public about the 
constitution, and the Turkish press has barely covered it. 
Indeed, during a wide-ranging Sept. 7 conversation with the 
Charge, MFA Under Secretary Tuygan did not even raise the 
constitution. 
 
MFA Officials: Sunni Arabs the Key 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) On Sept. 1, PolMilCouns called on Tokdemir to deliver 
reftel points.  Tokdemir characterized the draft as a "text 
of balance," and noted that the document left significant 
room for the Iraqi legislature to pass laws "to fill out the 
framework."  Therefore, Tokdemir said, the composition of the 
next Iraqi parliament will be of special importance.  Sunni 
participation--both on Oct. 15 but also in the subsequent 
national elections--"will therefore be vital," he added. 
Though Tokdemir expressed confidence that many more Sunni 
Arabs will participate than did in the Jan. 30 elections, he 
asked that we continue our efforts to get them to do so, 
noting that the Turks will do the same. 
 
4. (C) Tokdemir passed on reports that Iraqi Kurds in Mosul 
had already begun attempts to intimidate the Sunni Arab 
population there into not voting in the referendum (on the 
assumption they will vote "no").  PolMilCouns responded that 
these are serious allegations, and requested that Tokdemir 
provide evidence.  (He didn't.)  We acknowledged, however, 
that there will be some elements in Iraq who want to stop the 
political process. 
 
Kirkuk: Stick With Article 58 
----------------------------- 
 
5. (C) On Kirkuk, Tokdemir said it was positive that TAL 
Article 58 had been preserved in the draft constitution, 
noting that under Article 58 "there are many steps between 
now and a referendum."  He repeated familiar Turkish concerns 
about Iraqi Kurds moving into Kirkuk in large numbers over 
the past two years.  (NOTE: MFA officials have raised many 
similar concerns about Kirkuk in previous discussions on the 
constitution (ref b).  END NOTE.) 
 
Comment: Keep Iraq Together 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) What lies behind the Turks' complaints--Sunni Arab 
participation, Kirkuk, and official recognition of the 
Kurdistan region--is Turkey's overall policy goal for Iraq: 
that the country stays together and that an independent 
Kurdistan does not arise.  They see Sunni frustration as 
fueling sectarian strife and the insurgency, both of which 
(Turks believe) would tend to pull the country apart. 
Additionally, the Turks see an oil-rich Kirkuk under Kurdish 
control as the political and economic base for an independent 
Kurdish state.  Such a state would be an existential threat 
to Turkey, which fears it would seek to expand to include 
southeast Turkey, or otherwise encourage Kurdish separatist 
sentiments there. 
7. (C) Comment, cont.: While the Turks are generally unhappy 
with the draft constitution, they understand that it was a 
compromise document (at least between the Shia and the Kurds, 
in their view) and that there are gaps to be filled in later. 
 Turkish officials have told us that they will carry on with 
their outreach to all the political players in 
Iraq--including and especially the Sunnis--both in the 
country and also through political party training in Turkey. 
The GOT remains nervous about Kirkuk, and is concerned that 
the deliberate pace Article 58 lays out will be overridden by 
what they view as unchecked Kurdish expansionism.  Still, the 
Turks have wisely chosen not to take a "sky is falling" 
approach, at least not publicly, until they more fully 
evaluate a final text and the way the political process 
shapes up as we approach the referendum. 
MCELDOWNEY