US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1425

S E C R E T LAGOS 001425 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN VP'S POLITICAL FUTURE DIMS 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d 
). 
 
1.  (S) Summary.  A long-standing consulate contact said 
pro-Obasanjo hardliners in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 
were eagerly waiting information from the FBI they hoped 
would incriminate Vice-President Atiku.  In his political 
distress, Atiku is reaching out to former head-of-state 
Ibrahim Babangida (IBB).  The contact, who is close to 
Babangida, said this is the type of situation in which 
Babangida thrives.  Babangida will secretly support Atiku 
while informing Obasanjo of some of what Atiku is up to -- 
this way hoping to score points with the President.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (S) In a September 1 meeting with the Consul General, 
Professor Ukandi Damachi opined the PDP appeared to be moving 
up its timeline from early next year to right now to dump VP 
Atiku.  He said Obasanjo loyalists believe the FBI's 
investigation of Congressman Jefferson will unearth evidence 
of misconduct by VP Atiku.  The rumor circulating among the 
political elite is that the USG will come down hard on 
Atiku's wife, purportedly a U.S. citizen, for tax evasion. 
This should be enough to finish Atiku, Damachi smiled. 
 
3.  (S) Now in political extremis, Atiku has been making 
overtures to former head-of-state Babangida, Damachi's 
political boss.  Atiku wants to gather anti-Obasanjo allies 
to form a new political alliance of political heavyweights 
such as himself and IBB.  Of course, IBB's strategem is not 
as coarse and is more Machiavellian than Atiku's.  Damachi 
said IBB will likely give Atiku assurances of support in 
hopes of enticing Atiku into battling Obasanjo. 
Simultaneously, IBB will also keep his lines open to 
Obasanjo, informing him of some of Atiku's plans.  IBB hopes 
to keep Obasanjo and Atiku feuding so that they enervate 
themselves.  At the same time, IBB figures he can better 
position himself in Obasanjo's future political calculations 
if he is seen as helping Obasanjo by feeding him information 
on Atiku.  Damachi said IBB would begin to perfect this 
strategy the weekend of September 2-3 when most of the 
Northern elite, including Atiku, would be attending a series 
of weddings in Kano.  IBB, Damachi said, would encourage 
Atiku to start his own party as a way of not allowing 
Obasanjo to bury him and as a way of remaining in the hunt 
for 2007. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4.  (C) With Atiku under siege, IBB feels he has more room to 
maneuver.  IBB's instincts are correct but he overestimates 
his ability to spin this situation to his liking.  Both Atiku 
and Obasanjo are aware of IBB's legerdemain and will not be 
taken by his expressions of support.  Thus, while IBB may 
enjoy the gamesmanship of political intrigue, his vaunted 
mastery of the craft has actually restricted his ability to 
act effectively and will unlikely advance his position 
appreciably.  End comment. 
 
5.  This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
BROWNE