US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3804

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003804 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: TAICHUNG CAMPAIGN TRAIL: KMT LOSING ITS GRIP? 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 
1.4 (B/D). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  On August 24, Deputy Director Keegan 
traveled to Taichung City to meet with incumbent Taichung 
City Mayor Jason Hu, his DPP opponent Lin Chia-lung, and DPP 
candidate for Taichung County Commissioner Chiu Tai-san. 
Taichung City and County have traditionally been KMT 
territory, but DPP candidates are optimistic about their 
chances in the December 3 city/county elections there.  Even 
though he holds a strong early lead in public opinion polls, 
Mayor Hu has not ruled out the possibility of a loss to his 
younger rival.  For his part, Lin Chia-lung promises to be a 
more responsive mayor, and to use his access to Chen 
Shui-bian's DPP government to bring a mass-transit railway 
system to Taichung.  Chiu Tai-san told AIT that increasing 
divisions between the "Red" and "Black" factions of the KMT 
have weakened that party's grip on the county government, 
creating a unique opportunity for the DPP.  For the DPP, 
which has traditionally been stronger in the south, victories 
in either Taichung City or Taichung County would be a major 
step in its drive to increase voter support in Northern 
Taiwan.  End Summary. 
 
Mayor Hu Cautiously Confident 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Mayor Hu told the Deputy Director that despite his 
comfortable lead in the Mayoral race he expects the race to 
grow tighter in the final months of the campaign.  (Note: 
The latest ERA TV poll of August 25 shows Hu leading Lin 48.1 
percent to 24.9 percent.  End Note.)  Representatives of the 
DPP government, he surmised, would be coming to Taichung and 
promising public works if the DPP candidate wins.  Hu said, 
moreover, that his opponent's campaign war chest is full, and 
that "anything is possible" in the final few months of the 
race, including trumped-up scandals.  If the KMT loses the 
Taichung mayoral race, he mused, it could presage a third 
straight presidential loss in 2008. 
 
DPP Mayoral Candidate Won't Back Down 
------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) DPP Taichung Mayor candidate Lin Chia-lung is the 
former Director (2004-2005) of the Government Information 
Office (GIO), the public relations and media regulatory body 
of the Taiwan central government.  The Taiwan press recently 
blamed Lin for the seven-month GIO delay in disbursing to 
relief NGOs some NT$400 million (US $13 million) in aid 
donations for victims of last December's tsunami.  Despite 
that setback and his weak polling numbers, Lin told the 
Deputy Director, he is optimistic that his youth (41), 
experience, and connections to the DPP central government 
will convince voters he is the best choice for Mayor. 
Incumbent Mayor Hu is 68 years old, he noted, compared to the 
average voter age in Taichung of 33.  Noting reports that Hu 
is in poor health, Lin said he would use his campaign to 
highlight his own youth and vitality.  Lin's "Healthy 
Taichung" campaign ads show him playing volleyball, 
basketball, riding a bike, boxing, etc.  Lin argued that his 
academic and political accomplishments (Yale Ph.D., GIO 
Director) already rival Hu's (Oxford Ph.D., Foreign 
Minister), even though he is 20 years Hu's junior.  But it is 
Lin's connections to the DPP government in Taipei that enable 
him to promise a Taipei-style mass-transit railway system for 
Taichung.  According to Lin, the DPP's access to resources 
and its ability to deliver are "better than ever."  (Comment. 
 Recent embarrassments in the Kaohsiung metro and high speed 
projects may make such promises less appealing.  End Comment.) 
 
Magistrate's Race Could Be A Squeaker 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Chiu Tai-san is the DPP candidate in the Taichung 
County Magistrate race, a position similar to a County 
Executive in the US.  Chiu told the Deputy Director that 
Taichung has long been a KMT stronghold, but enmity between 
the local "Red" and "Black" KMT factions has compromised KMT 
dominance in the county.  Although recent polling puts Chiu 
15 points behind his KMT opponent, incumbent Huang 
Chung-sheng, Chiu is so confident of the breakdown in KMT 
organizational strength in Taichung County that he claims he 
has a "50-50" chance of winning.  Chiu charged that Huang has 
been an ineffective Magistrate, because he has ceded too much 
control to local faction leaders in exchange for their 
support.  Nor will Huang benefit from Chairman Ma's 
popularity, argued Chiu, because Ma is a reformer and Huang 
represents the "old" KMT. 
 
5. (C) Chiu estimated that 45 percent of Taichung voters are 
loyal Pan-Blues, and 35 percent are Pan-Green voters.  Chiu, 
however, a member of the DPP "New Tide" faction, believes his 
clean image will help him attract the lion's share of the 
10-15 percent pool of swing voters.  Chiu, moreover, has 
pledged to connect Taichung's county road system to Taiwan's 
island-wide highway system, to lure Taiwan-PRC charter flight 
business to Taichung's international airport, and to reverse 
the county's budget deficit problem.  He told the Deputy 
Director that a voter turnout below 70 percent would hinder 
his chances, since the majority of these voters would come 
from the KMT fixed local base of older voters.  A higher 
turnout, however, would mean that he had succeeded in getting 
swing voters, including younger commuters who work in Taipei, 
to vote, which would enable him to win.  Thus, Chiu 
explained, his strategy at this point is to concentrate on 
winning over grass-roots leaders to ensure their mobilization 
support come election day.  As a Taichung County native, 
coming from a KMT family, Chiu has been working to accentuate 
Red-Black faction problems and win over KMT voters who no 
longer feel bound by old faction loyalties. 
 
6. (C) Comment:  It may be that Taichung DPP candidates are 
better-positioned, better-funded, and better-connected than 
at any time in the past, but Lin and Chiu must overcome 
substantial polling deficits with less than 100 days until 
the December 3 elections.  Lin told AIT that, unlike the KMT, 
the DPP candidates in Taichung are "united," and running as 
"partners" in an integrated campaign.  While Lin's campaign 
relies more on image than substance, using advertisements to 
play the "age" card against his older, more established 
opponent, Chiu is running a more traditional, 
boots-on-the-ground strategy, focusing his efforts on the 
local leaders he believes can deliver the votes.  Both DPP 
candidates, however, particularly Taichung City Mayor 
candidate Lin Chia-long, will face a steep uphill battle to 
catch their KMT incumbent opponents.  End Comment. 
KEEGAN