US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1422

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001422 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR DISCUSSES HIS OPTIONS FOR 2007 
 
REF: ABUJA 1635 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (S) Summary: In an August 27 conversation with the Consul 
General, Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu stressed he was 
hedging his bets and political ambition on the 2007 election 
by no longer placing sole reliance on riding the coattails of 
Vice President Atiku.  Tinubu sensed Atiku's stock was 
declining and could descend further.  He thinks Atiku will 
leave the PDP and thus weaken the party.  Tinubu vaticinated 
that National Security Advisor Aliyu Gusau, a Babangida 
loyalist who has amassed sensitive, damning information on 
many of the players, could emerge as a key broker and perhaps 
darkhorse in the PDP presidential scramble.  Consequently, 
Tinubu has held meetings with 2003 presidential candidate 
Muhammadu Buhari and former head of state Babangida.  While 
Tinubu wants to be somebody's vice presidential candidate, he 
also eyes a Senatorial seat as a possible alternative. 
Tinubu no longer sees Atiku as a likely winner of the PDP 
presidential nomination.  End summary. 
 
OPTION ONE: VP CANDIDATE FOR ATIKU 
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2. (C) During a relaxed August 27 evening meeting with Consul 
General, Lagos State Governor Tinubu provided his analysis of 
the current electoral topography, particularly in the rival 
People's Democratic Party.  Although now in different 
political parties, Governor Tinubu and Vice President Atiku 
have a close relationship dating back to the early nineties; 
their friendship is one that defies party lines and perhaps 
political logic.  Whispered in the backrooms as well as aired 
in the public domain by less discreet tongues has been the 
possibility of an Atiku-Tinubu ticket under the banner of a 
new "progressive" party.  In the past, Tinubu has talked with 
verve to us about this option.  At this last meeting, 
however, he was more cautious.  Tinubu was noticeably less 
sanguine about Atiku's presidential chances. 
 
3. (S) Atiku's position within the PDP has weakened 
considerably, Tinubu assessed.  Atiku has lost his grip on 
the National Executive Committee as President Obasanjo has 
successfully ensconced loyalists there.  Obasanjo is also 
applying heavy pressure through the EFCC on Atiku's other 
main intra-party allies, the PDP state governors.  Tinubu 
felt that many of these governors would wilt under the 
pressure and make amends with the President, thus further 
undermining Atiku's position within the party. 
 
4.  (C) Tinubu maintained it would take a political miracle 
for Atiku to gain the PDP presidential nomination. 
Alternatively, if Atiku left the party, his exit would be 
precipitated by a defeat for the party nomination.  Defection 
born of defeat would not auger well for the fate of the new 
party Atiku would form, Tinubu forecasted.  Nonetheless, in 
the next breath, Tinubu voiced eagerness at joining Atiku in 
a different party in order to fight the Obasanjo machine. 
 
5. (C) Tinubu observed Obasanjo was almost as neuralgic about 
former head of state Babangida becoming the PDP nominee as 
about Atiku's possible ascension.  Given this feuding 
triangle, Tinubu thought each man would do his best to play 
the other two against themselves.  This three-way tug of war 
might not produce anything but a political stalemate 
requiring a compromise candidate.  Enter NSA Aliyu Mohammed 
Gusau.  Tinubu commented that Gusau has strong ambition but 
is careful not to encroach on turf staked out by Babangida, 
Gusau's mentor.  However, Babangida would give Gusau a nod if 
Babangida himself was foreclosed.  Babangida would rather see 
a loyal surrogate than an Obasanjo proxy win the prize. 
 
6.  (S) Additionally, Gusau, as NSA, purportedly has dossiers 
embarrassing to both Obasanjo and Atiku, Tinubu maintained. 
At the right time, Gusau could brandish these files to douse 
Obasanjo's and Atiku's ardor while promoting either 
Babangida's or his own ambitions.  The benefit that Gusau 
would serve to the likes of Babangida, Obasanjo and Atiku is 
that, among the major players, he knows how to keep secrets 
and he would be least likely to publicly air the other's 
dirty linen. 
 
OPTION TWO: VP CANDIDATE FOR BUHARI 
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7.  (C) In light of Atiku's mire, Tinubu has begun to hedge 
by holding discussions with Muhammadu Buhari of the All 
Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP) about the VP slot on a Buhari 
ticket.  Buhari finished second to Obasanjo in the highly 
controversial 2003 elections.  What was not controverted by 
most objective analysts was that Buhari won a sizable 
majority of the Northern vote.  If he is to run again, he 
needs a southern VP candidate who can command a large voting 
bloc.  Assuming he continued to control the North in 2007, 
all Buhari needs to take the election is to win one of the 
three Southern zones, Tinubu calculated.  Tinubu said his 
command of the AD in the southwest and his close connections 
with four of the six South South governors (Ibori of Delta, 
Igbinedion of Edo, Attah of Akwa Ibom, and Alamieyeseigha of 
Bayelsa) makes him an attractive partner to Buhari.  The 
drawback to teaming either with Atiku or Buhari is that this 
would produce an all-Muslim presidential ticket. 
 
8.  (C) While Tinubu did not see this as a big problem with 
Atiku (due to Atiku's noted religious laxity and his 
pro-Western outlook), it would be a heavy cross to bear for a 
Buhari-Tinubu ticket because of the perception in many 
southern Nigerian minds that Buhari is a religious zealot. 
Because of this factor, Tinubu asserted he had begun to shift 
his focus, which had been exclusively on the vice presidency, 
to see the Senate as a nice place to land upon exiting the 
governor's mansion. 
 
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PLAN B: SENATE PRESIDENT 
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9. (C) Tinubu said he is seriously considering the Senate in 
2007.  This would be an easier campaign and, given his 
political hold in Lagos, one more likely achieved than a run 
at becoming the nation's number two citizen.  If he selected 
this route, he would support either Buhari or Atiku with the 
understanding that if either won, Tinubu would be appointed 
Senate President - the number three citizen in Nigeria. 
Moreover, he also believes he could influence the selection 
of either Atiku's or Buhari's running mate. 
 
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THE AD, LAGOS AND SOUTHWEST 
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10. (C) Closer to home, Tinubu stated he was under intense 
pressure from the half-dozen AD candidates to anoint a 
successor in Lagos State.  He said he would resist the 
pressure and hold an impartial primary - whoever won would 
get his blessing.  The Governor revealed, however, that local 
electoral politics was making a casualty of orderly 
governance in the state.  State commissioners with 
gubernatorial ambitions had their knives drawn at each other 
and were rapidly factionalizing the party and government. 
Tinubu said he might be faced, for the sake of his and the 
Lagos State government's sanity, to demand all potential 
candidates resign their government positions.  Despite this 
turmoil, Tinubu expressed confidence the AD would recapture 
the Lagos gubernatorial seat.  He also predicted that the AD 
would have a good chance in the other Southwestern states, 
particularly Ondo and Osun, where the one-term PDP governors 
have distinguished themselves by their ineptitude. 
 
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COMMENT 
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11.  (C) Comment:  Reading the writing on the wall and 
getting a good sense of it's likely conclusion, Tinubu is 
exploring options other than his old friend Atiku.  Although 
Tinubu expressed confidence and felt himself to be in a 
strong position to influence national politics, reality might 
be a lot less generous.  Currently, the options to realize 
his vice-presidential ambitions are thin and getting thinner. 
 He maintains a degree of popularity in Lagos State.  The 
strategy to concentrate on running for the Senate for Lagos 
and on shoring up the AD in the southwest are less expansive 
than what we have heard from him on prior meetings.  They are 
also much more realistic.  End Comment. 
BROWNE