US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA730

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, SOCI, LO 
SUBJECT: SLOVAK PARLIAMENT CAN'T GET QUORUM; OPPOSITION 
CLAIMS SMALL VICTORY 
 
REF: A. BRATISLAVA 705 
 
     B. BRATISLAVA 694 
     C. BRATISLAVA 682 
     D. BRATISLAVA 677 
     E. BRATISLAVA 663 
     F. BRATISLAVA 626 
     G. BRATISLAVA 618 
 
Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C)  The GOS failed to get enough votes to reopen 
parliament September 12 after its summer break.  After 
failing to achieve quorum both Monday and Tuesday (falling 
three members short of the 76 required), we are told that 
Chairman Pavol Hrusovsky will postpone the session until 
9:00am Tuesday, September 20.  Meanwhile, members of Prime 
Minister Dzurinda's SDKU party are scrambling to convince 
independent MPs to show up.  This does not mean the 
government will fall; in fact, it remains well in control. 
However, it may make it more likely that national elections 
will take place before they are scheduled (September 2006), 
though we do not think the Slovaks will be heading to the 
polls to pick a new government before June. 
 
MPs: ALL DRESSED UP BUT NO PLACE TO VOTE 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  After Monday's failed roll call, opposition leader 
Robert Fico touted the lack of quorum -- which his Smer party 
helped to orchestrate -- as evidence of a "government crisis" 
caused by the departure of Pavol Rusko's Alliance of New 
Citizens party (ANO, reftels) from the ruling coalition.  He 
emphasized the need for early elections.  Fico claimed that 
the government does not have sufficient support in parliament 
to continue legislating its agenda.  Late last week the 
leadership of the Christian Democrat Party (KDH) told the 
press it had thought about the feasibility of early elections 
and was not worried. 
 
COALITION MEMBER UPSET BY HIS "HYENA" COLLEAGUES 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
3.  (C)  SDKU Deputy Chairman Roman Vavrik told us that SDKU 
has been reaching out to the 22 independent MPs upon whom the 
coalition relies to maintain its majority voting block (and 
thus power).  According to Vavrik, former HZDS MP Gustav 
Krajci pledged his support to the government Monday morning 
only to change his mind by the afternoon; another independent 
MP they were counting on for support is in the hospital.  SMK 
has a replacement for a deceased MP, but parliament needs a 
quorum in order to swear him in.  As of Tuesday morning, 
Vavrik told us that the coalition still lacked three votes. 
Vavrik was upset by what he called the "hyena-ism of good 
Christians" like Zuzana Martinakova of Free Forum and Ivan 
Simko of Mission 21, both former leaders of SDKU.  Simko has 
been "playing games," demanding a similar sweetheart deal 
between the coalition and himself as the one recently signed 
with the former ANO MPs lead by Lubomir Lintner.  Former ANO 
MP (and former Minister of Economy) Nemcsic wants Lintner's 
group to apologize for their actions while members of ANO, 
when they removed Nemcsic from the party (and thus his 
Ministry) to clear the way for Pavol Rusko's accession to the 
position; only then will he cooperate again with the 
coalition. 
 
4.  (C)  Vavrik told us that the coalition suspended 
parliament until Tuesday, September 20, at which time they 
hope to have rounded up the three remaining votes required to 
open the session.  SMK MP Pal Farkas said by next week the 
coalition would have enough votes, and that HZDS will help. 
However, Farkas said that in exchange for HZDS' help, the 
coalition may have to agree to early elections in June. 
 
COMMENT:  NO DISSOLUTION LIKELY 
------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  We fully expect this parliamentary "crisis" will be 
overcome.  The President of the Slovak Republic can dissolve 
the parliament after three months of inactivity.  However, 
this is unlikely.  The MPs (and particularly the independent 
MPs) will prove more interested in their positions -- and 
their immunities and handsome monthly stipends -- than in 
allowing the current deadlock to escalate to that point.  No 
one but Fico is talking about early elections before June 
2006, which, we note, would only be three months earlier than 
scheduled. 
VALLEE 
 
 
NNNN