US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI3799

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003799 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS TO AIT/W AND USTR 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC, EAP/EP AND EB/IFD/OIA 
TREASURY FOR OASIA ZELIKOW,WISNER AND OCC AMCMAHON 
TREASURY ALSO PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD OF GOVERNORS, 
SAN FRANCISO FRB AND NEW YORK FRB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2020 
TAGS: ECON, EINV, PINR, PREL, TW, CN, Foreign Policy, Finance, Cross Strait Economics 
SUBJECT: EVOLVING TAIWAN ROLE IN GREATER CHINA ECONOMY 
 
Classified By: AIT ACTING DIRECTOR DAVID KEEGAN, REASON 1.5 B/D 
 
1.  (C) Summary: A number of forward-looking Taiwan business 
people see that Taiwan's economy is in the midst of another 
major shift in its evolution from manufacturing toward a 
service and knowledge-based economy.  While other Pacific Rim 
economies are becoming big players in venture capital in 
China, Taiwan businesses are discovering a unique mentoring 
role in coordinating China's emergence as a global economic 
power.  Taiwan's visionaries see that contrary to the common 
perception, Taiwan wields considerable influence in China in 
commerce and in economic policy.  China is to a large extent 
modeling its economic policies on the export-led development 
strategy that created the Taiwan "economic miracle" of 
development in the 1970's and 80's.  Taiwan is not just 
inspiring, but also investing: over 70 percent of China's 
high-tech exports come from Taiwan-invested factories, and 
over two-thirds of Taiwan's foreign direct investment goes to 
China.  Former Acer Group Chairman Stan Shih's establishment 
of iD Softcapital in January 2005 creates a new, key role for 
Taiwan in fostering start-up companies in Greater China by 
using Taiwan's strength in understanding international trade 
logistics to supplement China's shortcomings in this area. 
End Summary. 
 
Asian Venture Capital Plays Major Role in China 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2.  (C) The media has recently reported the role played by 
venture capitalists from Pacific Rim countries in the 
formation of start-up companies in China.  Hong Kong-based 
venture capital firm Softbank Asia Infrastructure Fund (SAIF) 
Partners has earmarked about 70 percent of its US$404 million 
SAIF for China.  SAIF executives claim the company's annual 
return of 97 percent over the past three years is based on 
its strong network of local contacts in China unearthing 
investments that the "fly-in" venture capitalists from 
Silicon Valley have difficulty finding.  Silicon Valley-based 
H&Q Asia Pacific is also dismissive of "venture capital 
tourists" and considers the Asian origin of its top 
executives as crucial in its 19 years of successful 
investments in start-up companies in East Asia.  H&Q has 
invested about US$250 million in Chinese companies and 
indicates that amount is likely to grow quickly in the 
future. 
 
Taiwan's Investors Conservative 
------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Although Taiwan is a major investor in China, and 
Taiwan capital plays a crucial role in China's export 
industries, relatively little of this investment goes to 
Chinese start-up companies.  From his vantage as a consultant 
to small and medium size Taiwan investors, Crystal Capital 
Managing Partner Peter Shen (Pei-ling) told AIT there are few 
real venture capitalists left in Taiwan.  The bursting of the 
dot.com bubble soured many investors on high-risk projects, 
after which there were increased cross-Strait tensions and 
the new Taiwan tax law which removed exemptions for 
investments in start-up companies.  Weak stock market 
performance and low P/E ratios have further dampened Taiwan 
venture capital activities in recent years. 
 
4.  (C) Shen said he has clients who claim to be venture 
capitalists, but when he presents them with opportunities 
involving high tech start-up companies in China with great 
potential returns but also great risk, they find a reason not 
to invest, often citing a lack of technical expertise. 
However, these self-described venture capitalists are very 
interested when Shen shows them a conservative manufacturing 
investment with a small but safe rate of return.  Shen 
described the typical Taiwan small investor as having a 
conservative middle-class point of view and not willing to 
take much risk.  He noted that many of Taiwan's larger 
venture capital firms receive money from government funds, 
such as the Executive Yuan's Development Fund, and are 
prohibited or discouraged from investing in China.  Even the 
Taiwan venture capital firms without government funds face 
restrictions on the types of investments they can make in 
China, and are encouraged to invest elsewhere. 
 
Taiwan Money Not At Home 
------------------------ 
 
5.  (C) Shen also commented on the tendency of Taiwan capital 
owners to keep their money offshore.  He estimated that 
Taiwan-owned capital made up 25-40 percent of the capital in 
Hong Kong hedge funds.  Shen believed there has been a 
large-scale exodus of Taiwan businesses and capital owners 
from Taiwan in recent years to seek better investment and 
business opportunities in other parts of Greater China, which 
he defined as including China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, 
Singapore, and all the Southeast Asian economies dominated by 
ethnic Chinese.  He thought this had led to the development 
of a loosely affiliated international business network of 
capitalists and business people that had a Taiwan link, but 
which did not necessarily maintain any formal ties with 
Taiwan such as citizenship or business registration.  Shen 
noted that Taiwan expats had also become prominent in other 
parts of the world. 
 
6.  (C) Merrill Lynch Taiwan Director Sophia Cheng also 
described to AIT the widespread reluctance of Taiwan capital 
owners to repatriate earnings or keep investments in Taiwan. 
Cheng saw Taiwan's inheritance and gift taxes of up to 50 
percent as a major factor encouraging wealthy residents to 
park assets off-island, and noted that many of her clients 
have moved money to Hong Kong because it lacks these taxes. 
Further, Taiwan does not tax overseas income and is blocked 
from doing so by the lack of tax treaties between Taiwan and 
all but 15 other countries. 
 
7.  (C) Investments by Taiwan venture capital firms in 2005 
were only about half the level they reached in 2000.  Merrill 
Lynch Director Cheng noted that the poor venture capital 
market in Taiwan in recent years resulted from capital 
flowing out of Taiwan due to concerns about the cross-Strait 
political situation from 2000-2004.  She also mentioned that 
the number of companies listing on the Taiwan stock exchange 
had averaged over 100 per year for the past four years, and 
price/earnings ratios declined to 13 or 14:1, lower than 
other regional markets.  The relatively low price/earnings 
ratio in turn discouraged venture capital firms from 
investing in start-up companies.  Many venture capital firms 
switched their focus to private placements or mergers & 
acquisitions. 
 
The Greenwich Village of Greater China 
-------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) In spite of his perception of large-scale business 
flight from Taiwan, Shen still saw Taiwan as the most livable 
place in Greater China because of its relatively free press, 
liberal policies and attitudes, and creative orientation. 
Shen thought these attributes gave reasonable assurance of 
Taiwan's continued prosperity by being a creative center for 
all of Greater China.  As an example, he cited the popularity 
of Taiwan pop music and soap operas in other parts of East 
Asia. 
 
New approach 
------------ 
 
9.  (C)   iD Softcapital was established by Acer Founder Stan 
Shih in January 2005 shortly after Shih's formal retirement 
as Chairman of the Acer Group.  The company manages about 
US$460 million in funds, out of which a venture capital fund 
of about US$370 million is dedicated to the development and 
expansion of start-up companies.  The remaining funds are 
used in iD SoftCapital's consulting and re-structuring 
operations.  iD Softcapital Group Chairman and General 
Partner William Lu (Hung-i) met with AIT/Econ on August 29 to 
discuss his company's approach toward Taiwan participation in 
international venture capital opportunities. 
 
Key Taiwan Role in Greater China 
-------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) According to Chairman Lu, iD SoftCapital's primary 
mission is to offer expertise in asset and fund management, 
and "intellectual development for the new economy."  He 
described iD SoftCapital as an "integrator" that brings 
together various essential business resources from the 
"global Chinese community."  Lu said iD SoftCapital has a 
very different approach from other Taiwan venture capital 
companies.  It is not seeking investors from Taiwan, instead 
it will integrate Chinese management and marketing skills 
from Taiwan, capital, and technology from Chinese communities 
in the United States and Europe, with the manufacturing 
ability of China to promote Greater China's (which Lu defined 
as Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China) economic development. 
11.  (C) Chairman Lu said that at present, about 60 percent 
of iD SoftCapital's investment is in Taiwan and about 30 
percent in China.  The company will gradually increase the 
proportion of it investment in China to 50 percent over the 
next three years.  During this period it will gradually shift 
its staff from Taiwan to Shanghai. 
 
12.  (C) Lu noted that some other Taiwan companies are trying 
to adopt a similar strategy to take advantage of the demand 
and opportunities for venture capital in China. 
 
13.  (C) Echoing Lu's and Shen's comments, Matthew Miao, 
Chairman of Mitac, which makes PCs, servers and mobile 
communications devices in Taiwan, Guangzhou, China and 
Jiangsu, China, told AIT on September 6 that Taiwan's 
greatest strength is to be a "business integrator."  He said 
Taiwan has already moved from a manufacturing powerhouse 
exemplified by the term "made in Taiwan" to a coordinating 
role best explained as "made by Taiwan."  He sees Taiwan's 
future growth tied to a strategy of bringing Taiwan's 
managerial, marketing and logistical strengths together to 
run multinational efforts to research, design, produce, 
distribute and retail products. 
 
Taiwan Helps China Modernize Economy and Laws 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
14.  (C) AIT contacts note that Taiwan's mentoring of China 
goes well beyond the commercial realm into economic policy 
areas.  Local contacts claim that people from Taiwan 
currently enjoy widespread respect and admiration in China. 
Taiwan lawyers have played a significant role in advising and 
drafting China's commercial law, and native Taiwanese have 
become senior economic advisors to the PRC Government.  Even 
China's overarching strategy of export-based economic growth 
is to some extent modeled on Taiwan's success with that 
strategy as the basis for its "economic miracle" of the 
1970's and '80's.  Taiwan is not just inspiring, but also 
investing: over 70 percent of China's high-tech exports come 
from Taiwan-invested factories, and over two-thirds of 
Taiwan's foreign direct investment goes to China.  Economists 
estimate that the total cumulative Taiwan investment in China 
is over 10 times the total U.S. investment of US$10-12 
billion.  Former Acer Group Chairman Stan Shih's 
establishment of iD Softcapital in January 2005 creates a 
new, key role for Taiwan in fostering start-up companies in 
Greater China by using Taiwan's strength in understanding 
international trade logistics to supplement China's 
shortcomings in this area. 
 
15.  (C) Comment: AIT contacts have observed that Taiwan's 
greatest potential contribution to the economic development 
of Greater China is its knowledge of international business 
practices and global logistics.  If iD SoftCapital can 
succeed in its vision of managing Taiwan's strengths as an 
integrator with other essential business components from 
around the world, the resulting synergies could lift the 
economic integration of Greater China to an even higher 
level.  China's respect for Taiwan encompasses Taiwan's legal 
and economic systems as well as its artistic and cultural 
products such as popular music and television.  While Taiwan 
often laments its lack of influence over China's policy 
towards Taiwan, it is, in fact, exerting an enormous 
influence in China's economic development, and in China's 
economic, legal, civil, material, and cultural aspirations. 
End Comment. 
 
KEEGAN