US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS3346

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 003346 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER; DEPARTMENT ALSO PASS USAID FOR 
D/AA - AFR ALMQUIST 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, EAID, KDEM, ET, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU ELECTION TEAM LEADER DENOUNCES ETHIOPIA 
ELECTIONS, CALLS FOR "BUSINESS AS USUAL" TO END 
 
REF: (A) ADDIS ABABA 3117 (B) ADDIS ABABA 3122 
 
Classified By: PRMOFF MARC J. MEZNAR.  REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (U) Summary.  At a September 13 hearing of the European 
Parliament, the Chief Observer of the EU's election 
observation mission in Ethiopia, MEP Ana Gomes (Portuguese 
Socialist), condemned the GoE's handling of the redress 
process and related human rights abuses.  She urged the 
international community to step up diplomatic pressure on the 
Ethiopian government, particularly at the upcoming events in 
New York.  Gomes also said the European Commission should 
reconsider its aid to Ethiopia which amounts to 500 million 
euros per year.  A final report on the elections, which will 
be released in the coming weeks, will not be substantially 
different from the interim report, but will include 
recommendations for electoral reform.  Gomes described a good 
working relationship with the Carter Center and claimed the 
election observers helped ensure that over 90% of eligible 
voters cast ballots.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Gomes began her presentation to the Foreign Affairs 
Committee by outlining Ethiopia's strategic importance:  70 
million citizens who set an example of Christian-Muslim 
toleration; troubled neighborhood, including Somalia and 
Sudan, as well as a boundary dispute with Eritrea; diplomatic 
links with the Gulf and headquarters of the African Union; 
and, a Marxist-style regime in power that showed an opening 
to democracy by allowing multi-party relations.  She said 
that the EU's decision to send the largest group of election 
observers (over 160 spread throughout the country) reflected 
Ethiopia's strategic importance.  Gomes added that the GoE's 
unprecedented openness in the campaign also influenced the 
decision to observe these landmark elections.  She credited 
the involvement of the international community as the 
catalyst for the "stunning" turnout of over 90% of eligible 
voters. 
 
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Timeline: Promising Start to Poison Pen Letter 
------------------------ 
 
3. (U) According to Gomes, hints of trouble surfaced before 
the elections when questions were raised about the 
independence of the National Elections Board and during the 
elections themselves when NGOs were prevented from observing. 
 However, "things started to unravel" in a dramatic way the 
night of the elections when results indicated the opposition 
was headed for a landslide victory in the capital.  Gomes 
traced the major developments, as follows: 
 
-- May 15: Gomes issued a preliminary report, which was 
basically positive but reflected concern about the 
transparency of the counting; 
 
-- May 24: The EU was forced to release a statement because 
of growing concern that the results were being manipulated 
and because of growing popular suspicion; 
 
-- June 8: GoE security forces brutally repressed protestors, 
killing 42 and arresting 5000 (including children).  Gomes 
praised the work of EU Member State embassies for their work 
in getting 4500 prisoners released (without being charged). 
Gomes stated that the GoE began harassing opposition leaders 
and restricting the media (particularly radio and 
television). 
 
-- August 21: Re-runs were conducted in several regions 
correctly, despite poor organization (particularly in the 
Somali Region). 
 
-- August 25: Complaints about the redress process resulted 
in a preliminary statement of the EU observer mission which 
concluded that the process had not met international 
standards because of "serious intimidation and human rights 
abuses."  As an example, she cited maneuvers by the sitting 
Parliament to financially strangle jurisdictions won by the 
opposition.  PM Meles, furious reaction was made public in a 
14-page letter published by an official newspaper (reftel a). 
 
 
-- August 29:  The UK Presidency released a statement backing 
Gomes' findings, noting her report was "balanced and 
impartial".  A similar public statement backing the Gomes 
report was issued jointly by Commissioners Ferrero-Waldner 
and Michel. 
 
------------------------ 
Gomes says GoE must face consequences 
------------------------ 
 
4. (U) Gomes said that despite the problems, the dramatic 
increase for the opposition from 12 to 182 seats represented 
a victory for democracy.  She said that the "serious" human 
rights violations committed by the GoE should not be ignored 
by the international community.  Gomes noted that this week 
was "crucial" in determining whether it would be business as 
usual at the UN or whether the GoE would be rebuffed.  Gomes 
was adamant that the GoE's actions "must have consequences" 
in the EU-Ethiopia relationship. 
 
5. (U) She also said the European Commission should 
reconsider its annual assistance package of 500 million 
euros, which includes substantial budget support.  Gomes 
noted that UN Special Envoy Marrti Ahtisaari has expressed 
frustration at the way humanitarian aid is distributed 
(excluding NGOs from the process) and land distribution 
issues.  MEP Michael Gahler (German Conservative) agreed with 
Gomes' analysis and lamented that EU governments tend to 
support the status quo; he also criticized European 
Commission officials who "have an interest in playing down 
massive electoral fraud" in Ethiopia. 
 
6. (U) Regarding the U.S., Gomes said she hoped that 
diplomatic efforts aimed at "stopping terror will not allow 
dictatorships (like Ethiopia) to continue operating."   Gomes 
reported very good cooperation with the Carter Center, 
particularly during the redress phase which began June 10. 
Because neither side had expected the post-election phase to 
continue for so long, it was essential that the various 
monitoring teams coordinate their activities.  She expected 
the analysis of the Carter Center to track essentially along 
the same lines as the EU's (reftel b). 
 
------------------------ 
Next Steps 
------------------------ 
 
7. (U) Gomes expects to issue the final report within the 
next few weeks.  She said it will not be substantially 
different from the preliminary one, but will be more 
forward-leaning in nature.  One recommendation will be for 
Ethiopia to compile a permanent registry of voters (instead 
of the lists drawn up for each election) to reduce fraud. 
 
8. (U) Responding to a concern expressed by MEP Veronique de 
Keyser (Belgian Socialist), Gomes discounted the possibility 
that the final report might provoke a new popular uprising 
and more deaths, noting the lack of popular reaction to the 
interim report.  She contrasted this with PM Meles' emotional 
response, saying that a 14-page letter was a tacit 
acknowledgement that he could not continue doing business as 
usual. 
 
9. (U) During the Q & A period following her report, various 
MEPs praised Gomes' work, defended her actions and even 
suggested she should win the EU,s Sakharov prize for 
defending human rights. 
 
10. (U) DG RELEX Head of Unit for Human Rights and 
Democratization Rolf Timans, said that the European 
Commission "to a large extent" supports the Gomes report and 
praised the "huge effort" she made.  However, he said that he 
would wait for the final report before making a conclusive 
analysis.  Timans also said that Commissioners Ferrero-Walder 
and Michel will meet with PM Meles in New York in order to 
clarify the Commission's support for the observation mission. 
 He said that it was impossible to disassociate the technical 
from the political issues which the report raised.  Above 
all, he said that the Commission hoped to stabilize the 
situation in Ethiopia in order to prevent further bloodshed 
and to help the GoE open a healthy dialogue with opposition 
groups. 
 
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Comment 
------------------------ 
 
11. (C) Behind the scenes, there has been a lot of post-play 
quarterbacking in Brussels about Ana Gomes' handling of the 
Ethiopian elections.  The carefully chosen words by the EU 
Council and the Commission are aimed at standing up for human 
rights and supporting the independent mission of the European 
Parliament while not jeopardizing the EU's relations with 
Ethiopia.  (Note.  Tension with Ethiopia has already been 
aggravated by the boundary dispute situation.  End Note.) 
Gomes cannot be written off as a "wacky" Parliamentarian. 
She is a veteran Portuguese diplomat who as Ambassador to 
Indonesia at the time of East Timor's independence gained 
valuable experience in handling delicate political matters. 
Furthermore, her erstwhile supporter in Addis, EU Chief of 
Mission Timothy Clarke, has a solid technical background with 
his previous portfolio as EuropeAid,s head of unit for 
Democracy and Human Rights in Brussels.  (That he is the 
brother of UK Home Minister Charles Clarke undoubtedly 
facilitates cooperation with the UK Presidency.)  One EU 
insider said that despite these professional credentials, 
neither was prepared for the aggressive tenacity of the 
Ethiopian authorities. 
 
12. (U) USEU hopes that the upcoming meetings between A/S 
Frazer and Gomes in New York and with USAID D/AA AFR Almquist 
in Washington can further improve transatlantic cooperation 
in observing elections and strengthening democracy in Africa. 
 
McKinley 
.