US embassy cable - 05MINSK1099

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001099 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV FOR USAID 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, BO 
SUBJECT: Lukashenko to Help Opposition 
 
Ref: Minsk 836 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Lukashenko recently announced he would 
assist the opposition in finding a venue for their 
convention inside Belarus.  This statement came after all 
venues in the country already rejected the opposition's 
application.  The 10+'s organizer, Aleksandr Bukhvostov, 
has been in contact with GOB officials, and believes this 
to be a genuine offer designed to improve Lukashenko's 
image abroad.  Even so, 10+ plans to accept the offer.  End 
summary. 
 
2. (U) On September 8 President Aleksandr Lukashenko made 
the surprise announcement that he had ordered his 
government to assist the Belarusian opposition find a venue 
in Minsk to hold their congress to choose a single 
presidential candidate.  Lukashenko reasoned, "We should 
not give them reasons.  The nation supports the authorities 
and we are supposed to do our utmost to allow the 
opposition to implement their project within the framework 
of the law, and prevent them from provoking us... The 
Belarusian authorities are not that weak and feeble to play 
petty games with them... I instructed all branches of power 
to give the opposition congress a warm welcome, so that 
they could not shout from the rooftops that there is a 
dictatorial regime in Belarus, which suppresses them."  The 
10+ opposition coalition applied to over 70 venues across 
Belarus and was refused the use of all of them.  They were 
therefore planning to hold their congress in Kiev. 
 
3. (C) On September 9 Poloff met with Aleksandr Bukhvostov, 
leader of the deregistered Party of Labor and coordinator 
of the single candidate process for the 10+ coalition.  He 
confirmed Lukashenko's offer.  Bukhvostov said he called 
the deputy mayor of Minsk September 9.  The deputy mayor 
stated he was busy planning Minsk Day celebrations, to be 
held September 10 and 11, but that he would help the 10+ 
find a suitable venue starting September 12.  Bukhvostov 
believes this to be a genuine offer.  The 10+ leadership 
met September 9, and decided to accept the offer as it 
greatly eases logistical planning for the event.  Depending 
on availability, they hope to hold the congress in Minsk 
October 1 and 2.  Bukhvostov speculated the GOB could still 
interfere in the congress, such as by charging astronomical 
rent for the hall or refusing to issue visas to foreign 
journalists, but he does not believe this likely.  He 
opined Lukashenko made this offer as a means to improve his 
international image. 
 
 
Some Squabbles in 10+ 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) Bukhvostov outlined some recent problems within the 
10+.  He said the member parties have started arguing about 
how to use the coalition's limited financial resources for 
the campaign.  Another problem area is how to divide 
delegate votes for the congress among NGOs.  As Bukhvostov 
explained, a disproportionate number of NGOs are affiliated 
with the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) party, which other 
member parties feel would give the BPF too much power in 
choosing a single candidate.  He thought these problems are 
surmountable, and said the 10+ leadership is forming a 
political council which will meet soon to formulate a 
clearer, more rigorous division of power and responsibility 
in the coalition. 
 
 
Local Delegate Conventions Nearly Complete 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) The coalition has just 28 of the 147 local delegate 
conventions left to hold.  Each of these local conventions 
selects two delegates to send to the single candidate 
congress.  The remaining 28 are located in some of the 
toughest places in Belarus for organizing, such as the 
Chernobyl affected regions (where the Belarusian population 
was initially evacuated, and has since been replaced by 
immigrants, largely from Central Asia), and the rural 
Braslov Lakes region.  Opposition parties have the least 
representation in these areas.  The 10+ hopes to complete 
these 28 conventions by September 17. 
 
 
Other Coalition News 
-------------------- 
 
6. (C) According to Bukhvostov, Aleksandr Kozulin's 
Belarusian Social Democratic Party Hramada (BSDPH) recently 
approached the 10+ and asked to participate in the October 
congress to choose a single candidate.  The BSDPH has been 
participating in some of the local conventions, and has a 
number of delegates who will attend the congress, but this 
is the first time the party's central apparatus has 
expressed a willingness to participate. 
 
7. (C) On September 7 three political figures that have 
remained outside the 10+ process, former Agriculture 
Minister Vasily Leonov, former MP Valery Frolov, and former 
speaker of parliament Aleksandr Voytovich announced the 
establishment of a new opposition coalition aimed a uniting 
non-party members.  The three claimed they decided to form 
this coalition because the 10+ was not interested in having 
as members individuals without party affiliation. 
Bukhvostov claimed this coalition has no prospects, as all 
three are aging politicians.  While admitting Leonov has 
some supporters, Bukhvostov stated this coalition is heavy 
on leaders, but light on staff. 
 
8. (C) Comment: Lukashenko's offer of a venue in Minsk came 
as a surprise.  However, it appears to be genuine.  Some in 
the opposition have remarked this will allow the GOB to 
keep closer tabs on the event and are therefore against 
holding it in Belarus.  While the GOB will no doubt use a 
Minsk congress for maximum propaganda value, the same could 
be said of a congress held abroad, where the GOB could 
easily claim the opposition was under foreign control. 
Faced with this, the greatly eased logistics, lesser cost, 
and vastly improved optics of having the event in Minsk 
will hopefully offset any difficulties caused by the BKGB. 
 
 
KROL