US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV5614

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 005614 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IS, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: LABOR'S LEADERSHIP RACE CONTINUES TO FIZZLE AS 
MOST SEE PERES AS OBVIOUS CHOICE 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 3894 
     B. TEL AVIV 3891 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's September 11 
withdrawal from the Labor Party leadership race further 
consolidates support for Shimon Peres in party primaries to 
be held either November 8 or 9, with the final date still to 
be determined.  Polls, including on September 9, consistently 
show Peres in a dominant position, with the latest giving 
Peres some 41 percent support among the Labor membership, 
outstripping contenders Matan Vilna'i, Amir Peretz, and 
Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who together poll some 36 percent. 
Barak's show of support is likely to send most of his 14 
percent following to the Peres camp.  Peretz, Vilna'i, and 
Ben-Eliezer are continuing their candidacies for now. 
 
2.  (C) Labor MK Yuli Tamir, a strong Peretz supporter, told 
Poloff September 12 that she is confident that primaries will 
take place because, she said, second-ranked Peretz will stay 
in the race.  She could not predict whether Vilna'i or 
Ben-Eliezer would maintain their candidacies.  One media 
pundit argued that Vilna'i and Ben-Elizer will drop out due 
to their weak showings in the polls and that a consolidated 
Peres camp will then pressure Peretz to withdraw as well. 
Former Labor Party Chair Amram Mitzna, who headed Barak's 
campaign, told Poloff September 12 that he could not predict 
whether any of the other candidates would drop out.  Mitzna 
told Poloff that the bottom line is that Peres is certain to 
win the party leadership. 
 
3.  (C) A poll of Labor Party members published in Yedioth 
Ahronoth September 9 showed Peres with 41 percent support, 
with Amir Peretz a distant second with 16 percent.  Under 
Labor Party rules, in a three- or four-person race, Peres can 
win a first-round victory if he obtains at least 41 percent 
of the vote and no one else does so.  If there is a second 
round, Tamir predicted, it will be a race between Peres and 
Peretz.  Tamir conceded that Peres has a strong lead, partly 
due to the fact that he is the incumbent leader, and admitted 
that Peres "has a stronger hold" than Peretz over the Labor 
Party membership.  While she acknowledged that Peres is the 
stronger candidate, she commented that "there could be quite 
a lot of surprises (in the run-up to the primaries)."  She 
expressed the hope that more Labor party members will feel 
"enough is enough" with Peres, and start to ask what is good 
for the party. 
 
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