US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3301

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ALMATY 003301 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE), DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-HELLING) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KZ, POLITICAL, 2005 Election 
SUBJECT: KAZAZKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO 
PARLIAMENT--WE ARE ON THE RIGHT PATH 
 
REF: ALMATY 3245 
 
Classified By: DCM Mark Asquino for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
 1. (C) Summary: Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev 
unofficially kicked off his reelection campaign in a 
September 1 speech to the fall session of parliament. The 
President gave a glowing review of social goals he set out in 
his February address to the nation. His overall theme, 
stability and market-driven prosperity, was tempered by a 
two-part scheme for democratization that largely centered on 
decentralization and judicial reform. He reiterated 
Kazakhstan's bid to chair the OSCE in 2009, develop its oil 
industry and diversify its economy, enter the WTO, and 
continue a multi-vector foreign policy. First Deputy of the 
Presidential Administration Marat Tazhin repeated 
Nazarbayev's democrazation pitch in a September 5 statement. 
End Summary 
 
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Stability and a Chicken in Every Pot 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (SBU) On the hustings all summer, Nazarbayev said that 
what people told him they wanted most was prosperity and 
stability. "What are the people's main...concerns...improving 
the standard for living...and the stability of society." He 
lost no time in conjuring the ghosts of Andijan and Bishkek, 
adding that "everyone (I spoke with) is concerned with the 
need to avoid the unrest...in some neighboring...states." 
 
3. (U) The President ticked off social programs and budgetary 
support that either were increased or commenced since his 
February address and should be completed by 2007. The goal, 
according to him, is to build a "socially-oriented market 
economy." Some of the reforms include the following: 
 
--increase in pensions, which now average just under $100; 
--more money for the disabled; 
--low income housing for 1,500 households and mortgage 
support; 
--doubling student stipends and increase of 25% in state 
support for education; 
--mandatory health insurance and a 30% growth in state health 
care spending; 
--3,000 "Bolashak" stipends for foreign study. 
 
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Ownership Society 
----------------- 
 
4. (U) For Nazarbayev, ownership, private property, and free 
markets are the best antidotes to instability and chaos: "The 
success of our economic--and especially political 
programs--depends on strengthening the owner class, which 
represents a middle class that is know forming." To do that, 
the president proposed the following programs: 
 
--reform of the tax code to help small businessmen; 
--10 billion tenge support for the "Fund to Develop Small 
Business"; 
--creating an "agribusiness" sector to prepare for WTO 
accession; 
--WTO accession; 
--shedding the non-core functions of state enterprises; 
--diversifying the raw materials based economy through the 
"cluster strategy" (expanding value-added side of production); 
--market driven development of hydrocarbons that will result 
in 2 mb/d in exports by 2010 and 3 mb/d by 2015. 
 
He also underscored Kazakhstan's commitment to contract 
sanctity and, with an eye on growing oil production, its "new 
role in securing international energy stability." 
 
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"Harmonizing Democratic Restructuring" 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) The President repeated democracy themes he raised in 
his February address to the nation, while also outlining a 
two-stage "National Program of Democratic Reform" between 
2006-2011. He also announced the creation of a government 
commission on democratic reforms that he himself plans to 
chair. His program includes: 
 
 
--Appointment of certain, "non-power" ministers and 
ambassadors after consultation with parliament; 
--"remove the shortcomings of the electoral system"; 
--draft law on trial by jury; 
--more accountability by appointed officials, especially 
akims; 
--decentralization, including more power to locally elected 
legislative bodies,"Maslikhat"; 
--building of civil society, especially with the aid of NGOs; 
--increasing the size and functions of parliament, including 
in forming a cabinet; 
--fighting corruption; 
--increasing the independence of the court system. 
 
6. (U) Nevertheless, Nazarbayev stated that democratic 
reforms must "evolve in harmony with the specific features 
and traditions of a multinational and multiconfessional 
society." In a nod to regime hard-liners, Nazarbayev said 
that democratization opponents who fear instability "must be 
considered as seriously as all others." 
 
 
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More of the Same in Foreign Policy 
---------------------------------- 
 
6. (U) Nazarbayev underscored Kazakhstan's "multi-vector" 
foreign policy and pledged to seek good relations with 
Russia, the U.S (including support for Iraq), China, and the 
E.U. The president said that "Our foreign policy 
priorities..remain constant." 
 
7. (U) He also restated Kazakhstan's bid to chair the OSCE in 
2009. Nazarbayev said that he had tasked his Presidential 
Administration to prepare the country's institutions for the 
task, especially concerning democratization and building 
civil society. He also called on parliament to ratify all 
treaties that deal with human rights, such as the 
International Convention on Civil and Political Rights and 
the Convenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights. 
 
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GOK SPIN 
-------- 
 
8. (U) In a September 5 statement, First Deputy of the 
Presidential Administration Marat Tazhin repeated the 
president's call for democratic reform. On the 
president-friendly "Khabar" television network, Tazhin 
announced that Kazakhstan "was on the threshold of systematic 
political reform." He said that for the first time the 
president had "articulated" that "the main vector of 
development for Kazakhstan is liberalization."  Most 
importantly, he hinted that Nazarbayev might sit down with 
the opposition: "he is ready to discuss questions of 
political reform with various political forces in our 
society." 
 
 
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The Opposition's Take 
--------------------- 
 
9. (C) On the margins of his meeting with former President 
Clinton (reftel), opposition presidential candidate 
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay commented he did not expect Nazarbayev's 
promise of political reform to amount to anything. "We don't 
need another commission," he said; "we all know what changes 
are needed." Tuyakbay added that he did not believe the 
commission would begin its work until after the presidential 
election, "that is, if Nazarbayev wins." 
 
 
10. (C) Comment: While the opposition's skepticism is 
understandable, given Nazarbayev's record, we are encouraged 
by his statements on political reform and his willingness to 
sit down at the table with the opposition. Post will press 
the GOK to back up these positive words with real action. 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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