US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI7092

S E C R E T NEW DELHI 007092 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PBTS, MOPS, MASS, ECON, IN, NP, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: GOI MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN EVER ON NEPAL 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 2014 
     B. KATHMANDU 1980 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: MEA Joint Secretary (North) Ranjit Rae was 
less optimistic than ever that King Gyanendra would take 
steps to resolve the deteriorating political stalemate in 
Nepal.  He told A/DCM and Poloff on September 12 that all 
Indian observers believe the King is in "self-destruct mode," 
and cite the finger-pointing among Palace advisors as 
evidence that there is little confidence among even the 
staunchest royalists that the King will find a successful way 
out (Ref A).  The GOI is concerned that the initiative is 
slipping away from the Palace to the Maoists, and that any 
actions the King may eventually take to reconcile with the 
political parties may come as too little, too late.  Amid a 
spike in domestic "naxalite" terrorism, the GOI is also 
alarmed by the recent joint declaration by Indian and 
Nepalese Maoists.  End Summary. 
 
Brahimi's Visit: No "There" There 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (S/NF) Rae described UN Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi's August 
29-September 1 visit as unsubstantial, painting it as merely 
an exchange of views on Nepal.  Brahimi told the GOI that the 
UN was not looking to take on the challenge of mediating in 
Nepal, and in any case would defer to Indian sensitivities, 
Rae reported.  Rae denied rumors that Brahimi had contacted 
Maoists while in New Delhi (Ref B), complaining that one 
Indian journalist has been publishing "rubbish" about GOI 
contacts with Maoist leaders. 
 
Maoists Attacks Are Very Disconcerting 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) A recent high-casualty IED attack on a mine-protected 
vehicle in India's Chhatisgarh state, attributed to local 
Maoist insurgents, is a "great cause for concern," Rae 
admitted.  GOI security forces are very suspicious that 
Nepalese Maoists are assisting their Indian naxalite 
counterparts.  India's experience has shown that Maoists are 
best dealt with militarily at an early stage, Rae commented, 
but the situation in Nepal has gone beyond the point of a 
military solution.  India and the US must strengthen the 
political parties as a credible institution, he added, so 
that they will be in a position of strength to negotiate the 
ultimate political solution that must end the Maoist 
insurgency. 
 
Comment: Grim Outlook in New Delhi 
---------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In the three years that we have been discussing the 
politics of Nepal, Rae has never been more negative about the 
possibility of a favorable negotiated outcome.  The MEA 
appears to have given up on the hope that the Palace will 
reach an accommodation with the political parties, and now 
seems to be pinning its hopes on boosting the capacity and 
competency of the parties to offer a credible governing 
structure without falling prey to Maoist schemes to gain 
political legitimacy and power.  Rae was clear about the 
menace that the Maoists represent, but also noted -- without 
admitting a shift in GOI policy -- that there was a growing 
consensus in New Delhi that Nepal's political future lies 
with some form of republican government. 
 
5.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http//www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi) 
MULFORD