US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1621

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001621 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EFIN, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT: MALDIVES:  FORMER DETAINEE-TURNED-CABINET MINISTER 
ASSERTS GAYOOM ACTING IN "GOOD FAITH" 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 1530 
     B. COLOMBO 1556 
 
Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) In a September 6 meeting with the DCM in Colombo, 
Maldivian Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmed Shaheed and Finance 
Minister Qasim Ibrahim each asserted their strong belief in 
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's commitment to democratic 
reform, citing several recent positive developments, such as 
the decision to register political parties, as proof. 
Foreign Minister Shaheed reported that the Government will 
urge the Special Majlis to adopt a "roadmap" to reform but 
sidestepped the question of whether the roadmap would include 
a timetable.  With the appointment of Qasim, who spent 
several months in solitary confinement after the August 12-14 
unrest in 2004, the Government is eager to show Gayoom is 
bringing "reform-minded" people into his inner circle.  End 
summary. 
 
 
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OUT OF THE PRISON CELL; 
INTO THE CABINET 
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2.  (SBU) In a September 6 meeting with the DCM in Colombo, 
Maldivian Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmed Shaheed and Finance 
Minister Qasim Ibrahim each asserted their strong belief in 
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's commitment to democratic 
reform.  Qasim, who was previously affiliated with the 
opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and spent several 
months in solitary confinement on Dhoonidhoo Island following 
the August 12-14 demonstrations in 2004, was accompanied by 
former fellow Dhoonidhoo inmate and MDP sympathizer Mohamed 
Naseem, now Executive Director of the Ministry of Finance. 
Shaheed noted that Gayoom's recent appointments of new 
Ministers had brought a "reform-minded group" into the 
Cabinet who "have the determination to bring the political 
party process forward." 
 
3.  (C) After thanking the Ministers for their government's 
expression of condolence and offer of assistance for the 
victims of Hurricane Katrina (Ref B), the DCM asked about the 
situation in Maldives following the demonstrations of August 
12-14 this year and subsequent detentions of numerous 
protesters and opposition activists (Ref A).  Qasim noted 
that even during his extended detention last year on 
Dhoonidhoo, he nonetheless remained convinced of President 
Gayoom's commitment to reform.  "I said I was sure he'd take 
the (reform) agenda forward; now he has done so," the new 
Finance Minister declared, citing the June 2 decision to 
register political parties, expanded freedom of press, and 
recent changes to the Cabinet (including his own appointment) 
as evidence of Gayoom's "good faith" efforts to move ahead. 
The August 12-14 detentions this year following the MDP 
demonstrations were necessary, he indicated; "otherwise, we'd 
have chaos."  In an aside, he observed that mult-party 
democracy "costs a lot," adding that now "the Government has 
to please more people." 
 
 
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FOREIGN MINISTER CITES PROGRESS; 
ACKNOWLEDGES CONTINUED DETENTIONS 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
4.  (C)  FM Shaheed reported that "40 or so detainees" remain 
in custody, of which 25 may have had previous convictions for 
various offenses, including narcotics possession.  The 
remainder, according to Shaheed, were either involved in the 
protests August 12-14 or have been identified as 
"ringleaders" inciting the unrest--even if they did not 
actually participate in the demonstrations.  (Note:  We know 
of at least one detainee who was not even in Male' on August 
12-14 but who has nonetheless been dubbed a "ringleader." 
End note.)  The Foreign Minister then enumerated several 
positive developments since the August 12-14 unrest.  In 
addition to the August 19 visit by an ICRC delegation, a 
representative from the International Committee of Jurists 
had attended the August 24 arraignment of MDP Chairman 
Mohamed Nasheed (Ref B), Shaheed noted, while a recent joint 
Canadian-EU "fact-finding mission" had been allowed to visit 
detainees and reported finding the treatment of detainees 
improved from last year.  In addition, the Government may 
sign the Optional Protocol Against Torture during the United 
Nations General Assembly this month, Shaheed said. 
 
5.  (C)  Despite the disturbances of the previous month, the 
Foreign Minister continued, the Government gave the MDP 
permission to resume public meetings as long as no 
loudspeakers were used.  After the MDP flouted this 
restriction, however, the Government was forced once more to 
call on September 5 a two-week moratorium on such gatherings. 
 (Note:  The Government lifted the moratorium the following 
day.  End note.)  Shaheed expressed concern that some members 
of the MDP would use the September 19 death anniversary of 
two inmates during a 2003 prison uprising as a pretext for 
creating fresh disturbances.  However, "by and large, the MDP 
is trying to distance itself from violence," Shaheed 
emphasized.  To encourage non-violent political debate, the 
Attorney General has invited representatives from all parties 
for a dialogue on proposed reform, the Foreign Minister 
reported.  "The Government is trying to provide an outlet" 
for discontent other than street protests, he added. 
 
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ROADMAP--BUT NO TIMETABLE 
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6.  (C) The DCM asked the Ministers if they were satisfied 
with the pace of reform so far.  Acknowledging that the 
Special Majlis had not moved expeditiously to enact reform, 
Shaheed said, "However fast we go, there will be problems 
because of the magnitude of the changes we're trying to 
make."  After the Special Majlis reconvenes on October 1, the 
Government will propose a "roadmap" to reform that will 
include key benchmarks, such as electoral reform, voter 
education, judicial reform, presidential term limits and 
revisions to the penal code.  When asked whether a timeframe, 
however notional, would be attached to the roadmap, Shaheed 
responded that the Government would "list out the tasks to be 
done in some kind of sequence," but cannot dictate a 
timetable independent of the Special Majlis.  Special Majlis 
deliberations on the proposed reforms should be complete 
within one year, Shaheed predicted, but cautioned that actual 
"implementation would have to be phased in" more gradually. 
"We can't speed up reform at the expense of debate." 
(Comment:  Apparently debate cannot be speeded up either. 
The Special Majlis has been debating rules of 
procedure--never mind any actual reforms--for more than a 
year.  End comment.)  Given the numerous fundamental changes 
still pending, Shaheed commented, "we can't think of holding 
(presidential) elections until we know what we're voting for. 
 . . . We have to make sure we have sufficient mechanisms in 
place" to resolve the disputes that will inevitably arise in 
the course of the first multi-party election.  In light of 
these constraints, Shaheed said, presidential elections are 
unlikely to be held before 2008. 
 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C)  A year ago at this time, Qasim was in solitary 
confinement on Dhoonidhoo (and, during two of our visits to 
him and Naseem, exhibiting signs of mental stress), and the 
Government was preparing sedition charges against him.  Now 
he is the premier member of a "reform-minded group" in the 
Cabinet that the Government hopes will convince the 
international community that Gayoom's commitment to 
reform--although sometimes derailed by periodic arrests of 
opposition figures--remains constant.  While many recent 
steps, like the registration of political parties and the 
expansion of the Cabinet, indeed suggest that the Government 
is on the right track, Gayoom will have to overcome his 
default response to opposition--arresting the "ringleaders" 
and charging them with sedition--before true reform can 
occur.  While we appreciate that the Government cannot 
pre-empt the work of the Special Majlis by imposing time 
limits on the "roadmap," adopting some kind of prospective 
timeframe for proposed reforms to be enacted could bolster 
public confidence in Gayoom's sincerity.  DCM and Econchief 
will have an opportunity to review the situation more closely 
during their visit to Maldives September 14-15 
LUNSTEAD