US embassy cable - 05CAIRO7113

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007113 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, MASS, KPAL, EG, IS, OVIP 
SUBJECT: (C) SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL ABIZAID'S SEPTEMBER 
14-16 VISIT TO EGYPT 
 
 
Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  General Abizaid, Embassy Cairo warmly welcomes your 
return visit to Egypt.  Your visit for the Bright Star 
exercise will reaffirm the strength of the U.S.-GOE bilateral 
relationship and our common commitment to regional stability. 
 I look forward to discussing with you recent internal 
political developments and strategies we might use to 
strengthen our cooperation with Egypt. 
 
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Elections 
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2.  (S)  The September 7 presidential elections mark a 
significant development in a period in which the concepts of 
multiple political parties, public debate, and greater 
political awareness and engagement may become the norm. 
President Mubarak was declared the official winner, taking 88 
percent of the vote.  Surprisingly, the GOE announced that 
Ayman Nour of the Al Ghad party placed second.  The vote was 
marred by allegations of fraud, and the reported turnout of 
23 percent was exaggerated.  Press reports, voters, 
opposition groups, and independent monitors cited widespread 
violations during balloting, including strong pressure on 
voters from National Democratic Party (NDP) cadres to back 
Mubarak.  Nonetheless, the vote marked an important step 
toward a democratic transition in Egypt.  There was virtually 
no violence (common in previous elections), and independent 
monitors were (belatedly) granted access to some polling 
stations.  Opposition coverage in the media, while not nearly 
as great as that given to Mubarak, was more balanced than in 
past elections. 
 
3.  (S)  The upcoming parliamentary elections, likely to take 
place in November, pose a challenge, particularly given the 
weakness of the opposition parties.  In addition to pressing 
now for international observers, we also believe domestic 
monitors can play a role. 
 
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Internal war on terror 
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4.  (C)  The GOE responded to the July 23 terrorist attack in 
Sharm al Sheikh by mobilizing security forces in the Sinai. 
GOE officials acknowledged the link between the Sharm 
incident and the October 2004 attack in Taba.  They further 
linked both attacks to a small cell of Jihadis who exploit 
Bedouin disenfranchisement and sympathy for the Palestinians 
to persuade them to carry out attacks on tourist sites.  The 
Bedouin have fiercely resisted the GOE crackdown and killed 
two high ranking police officials in August.  Some speculate 
that the aggressive tactics used by authorities since the 
October 2004 Taba attack, including indefinite detention of 
many Bedouin, has only worsened terrorism in the area as the 
Bedouin seek to avenge the arrested.  Security officials 
believe that a stable Gaza and greater optimism among 
Palestinians will help them rid Sinai of Jihadi sponsored 
terrorism by reducing their appeal among the locals. 
 
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MoD points 
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5.  (C)  We understand that your time with the MoD may be 
limited; however, we recommend that you touch upon the 
following issues as time permits. 
 
--Funding for Egypt's field hospital in Afghanistan will run 
out in November.  The MoD may ask about the availability of 
continued funding, at least until July 2006.  In light of the 
need to build the capacity in Afghan hospitals, the U.S. has 
urged the GOE to move hospital personnel off base to local 
hospitals, but the GOE has resisted, citing security 
concerns. 
 
--U.S. Suez Canal transits remain numerous and are a critical 
element to U.S. force mobility.  There are 25 transits 
planned this month alone.  You may wish to express your 
appreciation for GOE cooperation on security. 
 
--The Border Guard Agreement between Egypt and Israel has 
been signed, and on September 11, Egypt started deploying the 
750 border guards responsible for implementing the 
agreement's terms.  Directorate of Military Intelligence 
contacts told us that the deployment is going well but noted 
that it will be at least ten days before all troops are in 
place.  Given the importance of maintaining security to the 
GOI, it will be critical for the GOE and PA to maintain order 
on the border. 
 
--Peacekeeping in the Sudan is critical.  The GOE currently 
has 36 observers in Darfur and is poised to send 800 
peacekeepers to South Sudan as soon as transport can be 
arranged.  An MoD contact also told us that the GOE is 
considering sending an additional 175 observers to Khartoum. 
You may want to urge the MoD to expedite the deployment of 
the peacekeepers. 
 
--Egypt has produced a defense modernization plan.  There is 
room for improvement, particularly in the areas of training, 
doctrine, and leadership development. 
 
--The MoD will ask for your support in countering the moves 
in Congress to reduce Egypt's FMF.  You might encourage the 
MoD to make more effective presentations to Congress and note 
the positive impact that Egypt's visible displays of support 
for U.S. policies can have in the Congress. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
RICCIARDONE