US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2892

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 002892 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: VICE PRESIDENT ATIKU MULLS A PROMOTION 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 2862 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASONS 1.5 (B) and 
(D). 
 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Vice President Atiku Abubakar wants to be 
Nigeria's next President; however, he no longer wants to wait 
for 2007.  Competing ambitions and mutual mistrust have 
placed Atiku and Obasanjo on a collision course. Atiku thinks 
he can snatch the PDP Presidential nomination from an 
unpopular, weakened Obasanjo. However, an open challenge to 
Obasanjo would be untidy, cause convulsions within the PDP, 
and increase the sense of political uncertainty throughout 
Nigeria. As Atiku inches closer to his decision on 
challenging Obasanjo, he also must gauge how many of his 
ostensible supporters pushing him are genuine or whether 
their efforts are designed to turn Obasanjo and Atiku into 
enemies. Instinctually, Atiku may be a better politician than 
Obasanjo, but  Atiku is also more representative of Nigeria's 
traditional monetized politics than the reformist, too often 
coarse Obasanjo.  Atiku does advocate privatization and other 
economic reforms, yet he also is closely associated with 
"business as usual" and allegedly a party to corruption. 
Reftel reported Atiku's account of current events and his 
role in them.  Much of what Atiku stated is true, but we do 
not believe that he is nearly as passive, or as blameless, as 
he claims.  This cable provides Embassy's assessment of 
Atiku's role in the conundrum that is Nigerian politics 
today. End summary. 
 
 
2.  (C) Vice President Atiku occupies a position most 
ambitious politicians find uncomfortable.  The safest bet and 
the most statesmanlike thing would be to stand pat as the 
number two on Obasanjo's ticket.  However, given Atiku's 
ambition and his withering relationship with the President, 
Atiku would chafe at four more years under Obasanjo.  Seeking 
the top office has a compelling attraction; it is equally 
foreboding.  Should he maneuver wisely, Atiku will ascend the 
greasy political pole to become Nigeria's Chief Magistrate. 
Should he make the wrong move, political oblivion would 
likely be next. Moreover, history may indict Atiku for 
letting personal ambition blind him to the imperatives of 
national political stability. 
 
 
-------------- 
HOW IT STARTED 
-------------- 
 
 
3.  (C) Despite his claim that Obasanjo drafted him (reftel), 
most accounts indicate Atiku was not Obasanjo's first choice 
as running-mate.  Obasanjo initially discounted Atiku as a 
customs officer with blots on his reputation. However, the 
PDP's strength was built on two main foundations: One was the 
clout of former Head of State Ibrahim Babangida and other 
retired generals; the other was the PDM, the "progressive" 
grassroots political network established by the late General 
Shehu Yar'Adua.  While the generals' support was essential 
getting Obasanjo's candidacy started and securing the PDP 
nomination, Obasanjo would need PDM members as his campaign 
foot soldiers to win the general election.  Atiku had 
inherited the leadership of the PDM from Yar'Adua. Atiku 
became Obasanjo's running-mate because of this political 
reality. 
 
 
4.  (C) The two men meshed during the first two and a half 
years of the Administration.  As Vice President Atiku 
shepherded the economic portfolio, presiding over the 
Administration's ambitious privatization initiative. Atiku 
had wide latitude in appointing heads of parastatals and 
party officials as well.  The VP maintained control of the 
PDM faction within the party, albeit the PDM had weakened 
since the election in 1999.  He compensated by extending his 
influence throughout the party, particularly in the National 
Secretariat and among PDP National Assembly Members.  Atiku 
 
SIPDIS 
quietly positioned himself as perhaps the single most 
influential person in the PDP machinery, eclipsing even 
Obasanjo. 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
ELECTORAL JOCKEYING MUDDIES THE WATER 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
5.  (C) By the end of 2001, electoral pressures began to mire 
the relationship with Obasanjo.  Works and Housing Minister 
Tony Anenih and NSA Aliyu Mohammed helped drive the wedge 
between Obasanjo and Atiku. Wanting to be the main PDP 
apparatchik, Anenih saw Atiku as a rival.  This rivalry was 
compounded by Anenih's desire also to control the PDM, where 
heretofore he was a important but lesser player than Atiku. 
Anenih began canvassing Northern Governors -- particularly 
Kaduna's Makarfi and Bauchi's Mu'azu -- to possibly replace 
Atiku as Obasanjo's second.  Anenih did not hide his 
machinations, hoping Atiku would find out. Atiku did. 
6.  (C) NSA Mohammed's reason for poisoning the 
Obasanjo-Atiku relationship were less apparent but may have 
been the child of Mohammed's own inchoate electoral ambitions 
or Aliyu may have been working at the behest of Babangida. At 
the beginning of the year, Babangida reportedly (and 
repeatedly) delivered messages to the President that his 
support was contingent on Obasanjo jettisoning Atiku. 
Babangida saw Atiku as a potent rival to the mantle of the 
North's preeminent political player and heir apparent to the 
presidency in 2007. 
 
 
7. (C) Rumors of Atiku's testing the political currents were 
not completely unfounded.  Notwithstanding Anenih's 
scurrilous behavior, the unraveling of the Obasanjo-Atiku 
relationship may have been pre-ordained by a combination of 
Atiku's quiet but strong ambition and Obasanjo's patent 
unpopularity. Early this year, Atiku tasked a group of 
advisors and scholars to develop a National Development 
Program, a macro-economic blueprint for Nigeria.  A more 
intimate sub-group began assessing Atiku's and Obasanjo's 
respective electoral prospects.  The findings that Atiku was 
more popular than his boss encouraged the VP's thinking of an 
independent political future. This undertaking commissioned 
by Atiku did not go unnoticed by the Presidency. Obasanjo's 
April electoral announcement only worsened matters.  Not only 
did Anenih attempt to schedule the rally when Atiku was 
abroad, when Obasanjo himself mounted the rostrum to speak, 
he omitted to mention the Vice President as his running-mate. 
 Despite this glaring omission, Obasanjo temporized for 
several weeks before making a tepid statement naming Atiku as 
his running-mate. (Note: Even today, the large campaign signs 
only display Obasanjo's name. END Note.) For the second time, 
political necessity forced an unenthusiastic Obasanjo to 
embrace Atiku, their partnership returning to its original 
form as the political equivalent of a shotgun wedding. 
 
 
------------------------------- 
IMPEACHMENT - THE MAJOR OPENING 
------------------------------- 
 
 
8.  (C) The relationship between the President and Atiku 
deteriorated swiftly. Supporters within and without the party 
pressured Atiku to announce his candidacy; speculation about 
the VP's intentions became a regular media theme. Moreover, 
the National Assembly's impeachment threat furthered Atiku's 
leaning toward going it alone, and the jury is out whether 
Atiku helped orchestrate the impeachment move. However, as 
Atiku himself admits, he has not used his considerable 
political influence to rescue Obasanjo. Atiku's claim that 
his passivity is a result of accusations of betrayal by 
Obasanjo's advisors is convenient but unconvincing. If 
Atiku's interests were served by Obasanjo emerging unscathed 
from the impeachment threat, he would have pitched a helping 
hand.  This also would have been the best way to refute 
allegations of betrayal. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
AN ATIKU CANDIDACY: PROBABLE, BUT STILL UNCERTAIN 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
9. (C) A recent meeting of the PDP Board of Trustees was 
devoted to a discussion of an alternative to Obasanjo. 
Obasanjo's foes are becoming more numerous and bolder in 
their pronouncements, sensing  his weakness and inability to 
sanction them for opposing him.  Obasanjo is in real danger 
of losing the PDP nomination. Atiku could help resuscitate 
Obasanjo's chances with a strong show of support; however, he 
seems more interested in positioning himself to take 
advantage of Obasanjo's decline.  Atiku is pacing on the 
sidelines, giving tacit encouragement to Obasanjo's foes and 
hoping that growing opposition within the party will grind 
Obasanjo's reelection dreams to a halt.  He probably hopes 
Obasanjo will decide to throw in the towel and not seek 
renomination.  This would minimize future accusations of 
betrayal.  If Obasanjo proves stubborn and continues with his 
candidacy, Atiku may wait until the last minute to publicly 
break with the President. By that time and with Obasanjo 
facing a wall of opposition, Atiku could be "drafted" as the 
only candidate that represents both newness and continuity, 
thus reconciling the fragments of an internally embattled 
political party. (Note: However, we have heard from one 
source that Atiku tendered his resignation late September but 
was persuaded to retract it. We cannot substantiate this and 
Atiku did not confirm this during his frank discussion 
reported reftel. End Note) 
 
 
10. (C) Atiku would be a formidable candidate.  Over the 
years, particularly the last three as Vice President, he has 
amassed a sizable fortune through both legitimate and 
questionable means.  Taking a page from the Babangida manual, 
Atiku has spread his largesse wisely, developing a network of 
elected politicians, traditional leaders, government 
officials and businessmen who owe him favors. While, in its 
totality, his network is not as influential or affluent as 
Babangida's, it likely surpasses those of any other 
politician. However, an important consideration for Atiku is 
the substantial overlap between his network and Babangida's. 
Many of the same businessmen who profited from their ties to 
Babangida in the early nineties have a similar relationship 
with Atiku now. The question of who controls the loyalty of 
these figures may be a key factor in a Babangida-Atiku 
contest for influence. 
 
 
11.  (C) While a formidable candidate, hurdles standing in 
Atiku's way include: 
 
 
-- Obasanjo:  If he fails to win re-nomination, Obasanjo will 
blame Atiku. He could well use the rest of his tenure to 
reign vindictiveness on the Vice President, seeking to block 
his PDP nomination and his election. 
 
 
-- North: Atiku is not well respected by many in the Northern 
political class.  He is not from the Northwest, the heart of 
the region's political power, and is considered an upstart of 
modest pedigree.  Moerover, some see Atiku, although a 
Moslem, as anti-Islamic because of his public statements 
against Shari'a. Fort his and other reasons, he has been in a 
running feud with the ACF, the principal Northern political 
organization. Finally, many northerners see Atiku as having 
done far too little for their region. 
 
 
-- Southwest: If seen as having torpedoed Obasanjo, Atiku 
would face opposition in the Southwest. While not enamored 
with Obasanjo, many Yorubas would still see Atiku's candidacy 
as the beginning of the dreaded return to national power of 
the Northern elite, even though Atiku is disliked by many 
Northerners.  One way to minimize this backlash would be to 
select a Yoruba running mate. Longtime friend Lagos State 
Governor Bola Tinubu has been rumored for that slot. 
However, bringing Tinubu into the PDP from the AD would cause 
ripples within the PDP and possible opposition from the AD. 
While the Southwest could be especially problematic, Atiku 
has also tried to court governors from the South-South and 
Southeast as well. 
 
 
-- Religion: Although Atiku is not considered a devout 
Moslem, religious tensions could grow if he fails to choose a 
Christian running mate. (Tinubu is Moslem.) 
 
 
-- Disloyalty Factor: While (almost) all is fair in Nigerian 
politics, Atiku will be walking uncharted territory by 
challenging Obasanjo.  Many Nigerians may not want to reward 
him for what seems like a betrayal of the President.  Then 
there is the matter of blatant hypocrisy.  Only a few months 
ago Atiku publicly stated he would rather be Obasanjo's VP 
than head his own ticket.  Atiku seems to be banking on the 
belief that Obasanjo is so unpopular, the people will view 
Atiku's challenge as a rescue rather than a  betrayal. 
 
 
-- Corruption Factor: Atiku is considered corrupt by many 
people.  Obasanjo or an ally could present an "Atiku Dossier" 
before the ICPC, the federal anti-corruption commission, or 
to the general public.  An Obasanjo ally has already filed a 
case against another Obasanjo foe, House Speaker Ghali 
Na'Abba. 
 
 
-------------------- 
The Babangida Factor 
-------------------- 
 
 
12.  (C) The Vice -President told us that Babangida has urged 
him to run.  Atiku reportedly has reciprocated Babangida's 
support with the promise to be a one-term President, thus 
opening the door to Babangida in 2007.  However, taking 
Babangida's encouragement at face value could be dangerous. 
Babangida's baseline political objective is to remain the 
North's preeminent political actor. Atiku represents a known 
threat to that aspiration. If Atiku supplants Obasanjo, Atiku 
becomes the most important political player in Nigeria and 
the North by virtue of his office and the power it affords. 
Moreover, the wily Babangida knows Atiku's one-term promise 
is utterly unenforceable. Babangida probably is not 
encouraging Atiku to run so that he can win, but to break the 
erstwhile Obasanjo-Atiku alliance. Babangida is probably 
calculating that the best way to defeat Obasanjo and Atiku is 
to divide and conquer the duo by exploiting and increasing 
their mutual mistrust.  By forcing Atiku's hand now when he 
is not quite ready, Babangida would not have to contend in 
2007 with an Atiku flush with the benefits of four additional 
years of incumbency. Babangida's play could conceivably 
destroy Atiku politically and irrevocably. 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
13. (C) The signs of the time point to Atiku challenging 
Obasanjo. It is significant that the VP is not helping 
Obasanjo contend with the impeachment battle. Nowadays, the 
two rarely speak or meet privately. Meanwhile, Atiku is 
marshalling his strength within the party.  He is talking to 
PDP State Governors and members of the party NEC. A cagey 
operator, Atiku is letting others stalk Obasanjo while he 
awaits the right time to move. Atiku can only gain the 
Presidency in 2003 by emerging from Obasanjo's shadow, but, 
in doing so, he also exposes himself to political jeopardy. 
This is Atiku's dilemma. He thinks he can sprint past 
Obasanjo to seize the PDP nomination, but what he does not 
know is who, beside Obasanjo, will oppose his ambitions. 
Atiku claims Babangida has told him to run.  However, he must 
wonder if Babangida is laying in wait to ambush him 
politically. 
 
 
14. (C) As a candidate, Atiku presents a mix of good and bad. 
 Hands down, he is a more astute politician than Obasanjo. 
Atiku would not commit the many insensitive blunders that 
have undermined Obasanjo's popularity and cause so much 
friction between the Executive and Legislature and the 
President and the political elite. He has been a friend of 
the private sector and the business community. He also is 
friendly toward the United States, would seek a good 
relationship and would not try to undermine our interests in 
Nigeria. However, he is considered venal and has used his 
position to accumulate significant business interests that 
enriched him and his cronies. 
 
 
15. (C) Atiku is an accomplished practitioner of the politics 
of business as usual. As such, his commitment to fight 
corruption and promote genuine economic reform is suspect. 
All in all, Atiku grades much better than Obasanjo on style; 
but on substance, he probably brings to the table much less 
of what Nigerians need or want to secure a better and 
different future. 
JETER