US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3295

UNCLAS  ALMATY 003295 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE), DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA- 
HELBLING) 
 
USOSCE FOR J. DUNLOP AND R. BARBER 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MAZHILIS CALLS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, 
CANDIDATES NOMINATED 
 
REF: A. Almaty 3047, B. Almaty 2985, C. Almaty 3245, D. 
 
Almaty 1736 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: With the September 7 announcement by the 
Mazhilis that presidential elections will be held December 
4, Kazakhstani political parties have begun to nominate 
their candidates.  President Nazarbayev used his acceptance 
speech to highlight his success in managing the economy and 
outline plans for further reform.  "For a Just Kazakhstan" 
leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay lashed out at the GOK for 
corruption and distorted statistics which paint a too-rosy 
view of the Kazakhstani economy.  He outlined a series of 
populist proposals, including re-nationalizing certain state 
enterprises and distributing oil tax revenues directly to 
the public.  A September 11 presidential decree setting out 
government responsibilities increases the mandate of the 
procuracy to oversee the campaign and elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
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Presidential Elections Set for December 4 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) On September 7, the Mazhilis (lower house of 
Parliament) called presidential elections for December 4, 
2005.  As reported Ref A, the announcement by the Mazhilis 
was a formality following the Constitutional Council's 
ruling on the date.  The official announcement cleared the 
way for parties to begin nominating candidates formally on 
September 8.  The nomination period will end on October 3. 
Formal CEC registration will take place October 3-24.  The 
election campaign will begin on October 25 and end on 
December 2.  Voting will take place on December 4 from 7:00 
to 20:00.  Territorial election commissions must report 
results to the CEC by December 7, the CEC must confirm and 
announce the official results by December 11, and the CEC 
must publish the results by December 14. 
 
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Otan Nominates Nazarbayev; Bloc to Support 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3. (U) The Otan party, of which President Nazarbayev is the 
honorary chairman, held an extraordinary congress in Almaty 
on September 9 to nominate Nazarbayev as its candidate.  In 
accepting the nomination, Nazarbayev highlighted the 
modernization program outlined in his February address to 
the nation.  He emphasized the need for political 
modernization, but offered no specific proposals. 
Nazarbayev spoke in most detail about the need for continued 
economic development through diversification.  Otan 
submitted Nazarbayev's nomination documents to the Central 
Election Commission (CEC) on September 12.  According to 
press reports the CEC immediately announced that the 
documents were correctly prepared. 
 
4. (U) The Otan party congress also decided to form a bloc 
with Dariga Nazarbayeva's Asar party to support Nazarbayev's 
candidacy.  The bloc, to be called the "People's Coalition 
of Kazakhstan," is also expected to include the Civic, 
Agrarian, Democratic Peoples (DPK), and Communist People's 
(CPK) parties.  Nazarbayeva spoke in favor of the bloc at a 
September 8 press conference with acting Otan chair 
Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov.  Asar is expected to formally approve 
the creation of the bloc at its September 14 congress in 
Astana. 
 
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"For a Just Kazakhstan" Nominates Tuyakbay 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5. (U) The "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) opposition movement 
(Refs B and C) held its congress on September 10 to nominate 
movement leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay as its presidential 
candidate.  The event, which proceeded smoothly, was 
attended by all leading opposition figures except Alikhan 
 
 
Baimenov, leader of the rump Ak Zhol party.  The congress 
selected former DCK member-turned-Communist Tulen 
Tokhtasynov to run Tuyakbay's campaign headquarters, and 
True Ak Zhol leader Bulat Abilov to head the electoral 
campaign.  Tuyakbay submitted his application to the CEC on 
September 12, at which time he met with CEC chair Onalsyn 
Zhumabekov to clarify registration and campaign rules. 
 
6. (SBU) FJK invited the Embassy to send an observer to the 
congress, following up by phone several times to ensure that 
someone would attend.  (Note:  This was most likely due to 
the violence that has plagued previous FJK events; see Ref 
D.)  According to FJK leader Amyrzhan Kosanov, the movement 
was refused access by several potential venues.  As a 
location still had not been identified the night before the 
congress, delegates were instructed to meet at FJK 
headquarters at 9:30 am on Saturday to be bussed to the 
venue. Outgoing DCK senator Zauresh Battalova told POEC 
chief on September 10 that FJK leaders had been in 
"negotiations" with unspecified GOK authorities until late 
the previous evening, seeking approval for a venue and a 
guarantee of security. 
 
7. (SBU) In his acceptance speech, Tuyakbay claimed that 
economic conditions in Kazakhstan were worse than the GOK 
admitted, due to a distorted definition of the poverty line. 
He called for the dismantlement of the "monopolistic clan 
economy," and for measures to increase social protection and 
reduce the gap between rich and poor.  He also announced 
plans to support the development of small- and medium-sized 
enterprises and to address unemployment.  Highlighting the 
need for fair conditions for farmers, Tuyakbay called for a 
moratorium on the sale of farmland. 
 
8. (SBU) Somewhat alarmingly, Tuyakbay called for the re- 
nationalization of "illegally privatized" state-owned 
enterprises in the areas of natural resources, natural 
monopolies, government facilities in Almaty, and extra-large 
land plots.  The properties would then be privatized again 
"fairly."  Tuyakbay announced plans to begin distributing 
50% of taxes coming from the extractive industries to the 
public, beginning in 2006.  He said that state owned energy 
company KazMuniGaz (KMG) will be ordered to supply the 
domestic fuel market fully, at "fair prices."  Tuyakbay said 
his government would work to create one million new jobs, 
and would push for fundamental changes to the tax code.  It 
would also curtail the construction of new government 
buildings in Astana.  Tuyakbay promised to increase funding 
for pensioners dramatically, to double the health care 
budget, to increase access to higher education, and to 
allocate $100 million per year to support teaching of the 
Kazakh language. 
 
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Other Candidates 
---------------- 
 
8. (U) At the moment, independent senator Ualikhan Kaisarov 
is the only other candidate to have registered for the 
elections.  In a September 9 Interfax interview, Kaisarov 
praised Nazarbayev for having done much for Kazakhstan.  He 
criticized the team around Nazarbayev as "excessively 
corrupt," and claimed that "[Nazarbayev's] team opposes 
whatever progressive ideas the president suggests." 
Kaisarov concluded that the main task was to "change 
[Nazarbayev's] team," and the only way to do that is to 
choose a new president. 
 
9. (U) Ak Zhol is widely expected to nominate its co- 
chairman Alikhan Baimenov at its September 20 congress in 
Almaty.  In his public comments to date, however, Baimenov 
has remained noncommittal. 
 
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Presidential Decree on Conduct of Elections 
------------------------------------------- 
 
 
10. (U) On September 10, official Kazakhstanskaya Pravda 
published a decree on "Measures on the Fulfillment of 
Electoral Rights of Citizens of the Republic of Kazakhstan" 
signed by President Nazarbayev on September 9.  The decree, 
which is being characterized by the GOK as an effort to 
ensure "free, fair, and competitive" presidential elections, 
directs: 
 
-- the CEC to ensure citizens' rights to vote and be 
elected; 
-- the government to provide adequate financing; 
-- the procuracy to strengthen its oversight of the 
electoral process and to react promptly to complaints and 
violations; 
-- akims to ensure accurate voter lists and support local 
electoral commissions; 
-- the Ministry of Culture, Information, and Sport to ensure 
equal access to the media for all candidates; 
-- the CEC to accredit foreign election observers and media; 
-- the Ministry of Justice to expedite the issuance of ID 
cards and passports and the registration of candidates' 
election funds; and 
-- the Ministry of the Interior, along with akims, to ensure 
social order and security during the campaign. 
 
The decree also urges political parties and other social 
organizations to ensure control over election-related 
events.  Unfortunately, there was nothing in the decree 
ordering presidentially-appointed akims not to abuse 
administrative resources to support the President's 
election. 
 
11. (U) Speaking at an NGO forum on September 12, Nazarbayev 
stressed that the decree gave law enforcement the task of 
making sure that NGOs obey the law and that there is no 
foreign interference. 
 
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Comment 
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12. (SBU) Comment:  While most observers still expect 
significant flaws in the conduct of presidential elections, 
the process has proceeded well thus far.  The fact that FJK 
was able to hold its nominating congress with no violence or 
other provocation was a positive development, and by no 
means a foregone conclusion.  President Nazarbayev's decree 
and his public comments about the need for free and fair 
elections are also steps in the right direction.  However, 
his September 12 remarks about the expanded role of the 
procuracy may foreshadow another period of rising tension 
between the GOK and NGOs.  The application of the decree, 
candidate registration, access to the media, and the 
potential misuse of administrative resources are the next 
big challenges.   End comment. 
 
13. (U) Minimize or Dushanbe considered. 
 
 
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