US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1657

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001657 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: SEVEN OPPOSITION MPS END THEIR BOYCOTT OF 
PARLIAMENT AS AMENDMENT DISCUSSION CONTINUES 
 
REF: YEREVAN 1593 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1. (C) The seven MPs of the opposition National Unity Party 
officially ended their 19-month boycott of parliament on 
September 12.  Their return comes as the National Assembly 
continues discussion of a draft constitutional amendments 
package (ref) and local media and observers devote more 
attention than usual to Armenia's legislature.  National 
Unity Party leader Artashes Geghamian insisted that the 
decision to return was in no way linked to the rumored 
discussion of whether the GOAM can strip boycotting MPs of 
their mandates after prolonged absences.  He instead 
described the move was instead a "response to requests from 
his constituents."  Geghamian told Emboffs that his party 
will call on the GOAM to hold extraordinary presidential and 
parliamentary elections following the referendum on the 
constitutional amendments currently scheduled for November. 
 
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JUSTICE BLOC:  BOYCOTT A-LA-CARTE 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) A Justice Bloc spokesperson confirmed to us September 
12 that its 14 MPs were also considering a return but had 
opted instead to attend sessions that they considered 
"important" while nominally maintaining their boycott for an 
indefinite period.  Justice Bloc leader Stepan Demirchian had 
made brief appearances in the National Assembly hall during 
the (widely televised) second reading of the constitutional 
amendments package in mid-August but has otherwise steered 
clear of parliament since February 2003.  (Note:  Demirchian, 
like many other opposition MPs, temporarily suspended his 
boycott during the parliamentary hearings on the 
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict earlier this year.  End Note.) 
 
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COMMENT:  OPPOSITION FISSURES STILL CLEARER THAN GOALS 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
3. (C) Geghamian's decision to return to the parliament has, 
for the moment, offered a badly needed boost to his political 
profile (after months of obscurity in the public eye).  This 
attention but could prove short-lived, however, unless the 
media continue to cover parliamentary proceedings with 
regularity.  While international observers will welcome his 
party's return to parliament, his track record in parliament 
for constructive dialogue has been uneven.  What is clear 
from his public and private comments is that his party 
continues to struggle to define its relationship with the 
opposition Justice Bloc.  The opposition's mantra about 
Kocharian's "illegitimacy" still does not include a 
well-defined opposition platform nor specific policy goals. 
Some opposition leaders are now calling for an outright 
boycott of the November referendum on the constitutional 
amendments in hopes to unite opposition supporters, discredit 
the Kocharian administration, and "force" a set of 
extraordinary elections.  With a large group of opposition 
MPs now back in parliament, another group still boycotting, 
and others yet undecided, we continue to predict that this 
scenario is unlikely. 
EVANS