US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3750

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003750 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, IZ, Shia Islamists 
SUBJECT: SHI'A AND KURDS CONTINUE DEBATE  OVER WATER 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 3714 
 
Classified By: Charge David Satterfield for reasons 
 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  Authority over Iraq's water resources has 
emerged as a temporary stumbling block to concluding the 
draft constitution.  The Kurds want a strong role for 
regional governments in managing water resources, while the 
Shi'a insist that the central government have the main 
authority.  This water issue combined with a recent spike in 
Kurdish voter registrations in Kirkuk has made the Shi'a even 
more suspicious of Kurdish intentions.  Efforts to find a 
compromise resolution continue.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Kurdish Counter-offer on Water 
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2.  (C) On September 10, Charge, UK AMB, and PolCouns flew to 
Salah Al-Din to meet with Kurdish President Masood Barzani to 
seek closure on remaining constitutional issues.  Barzani 
agreed with top Shi'a Coalition official and Deputy Speaker 
of the Transitional National Assembly Hussein Ibrahim Saleh 
Al-Shahristani that authority over water resources is the key 
issue. Kurdish aides to Barzani privately told PolCouns that 
the Kurds would not accept central government control of 
tributaries flowing through Kurdistan that eventually link up 
with the Tigris River (this includes the Diyala and Great Zab 
rivers). The Kurds find the August 28 text language of 
Articles 107 and 110 of the Constitution sufficient. 
 
3.  (C) The Kurds reviewed and rejected the UN-inspired 
language sought by the Shia Coalition for Articles 107 and 
110 that would give the central government exclusive 
authority, "in consultation with" regional governments over 
management of tributaries flowing into major rivers.  After 
consultations with his son Masrur and his Chief of Staff, 
Fuad Hussayn, President Barzani agreed to put the Shia 
proposed text not under the exclusive authorities section 107 
but rather under the shared authorities listed in Article 
110.  Both Charge and UK AMB fought back other Kurdish 
suggestions to edit the UN text. 
 
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Shia Coalition Initial Response - No 
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4.  (C) On September 11, Shahristani told Charge and UK AMB 
that he was skeptical the Shi'a Coalition would accept this 
Kurdish counter proposal; the Coalition would not want the 
central government and the regional government to share water 
authorities.   As before (see reftel), Sharistani argued that 
with reference only in the shared authorities section, the 
central government would not have undisputed authority to 
manage the national water resources.  (Comment:  the Shi'a 
are worried that the Kurds will overuse water resources 
reducing the water flow to the Southern Shia' areas.  End 
Comment.)   Charge and UK AMB emphasized that the text gives 
central government clear input into water management.  In 
particular, and we understand of critical importance to 
Ayatollah Sistani, Article 90 would give the Federal Supreme 
Court clear scope to settle water disputes between the 
central government and a regional or provincial government, 
or between local governments.  Shahristani understood this 
point but doubted it was enough for the Shi'a Coalition to 
waiver in their position. 
 
5.  (C) Late on September 11, the Coalition held an internal 
meeting and according to Shi'a Coalition member Fryad Omar 
the Coalition rejected the Kurdish proposal to share water 
authority.  A top Coalition member involved in constitution 
negotiations, Abdulhadi Al-Hakim, told PolCouns on September 
12 that the Coalition members claim the Kurds are asserting 
too much authority over water.  The Shi'a do not want to be 
at the mercy of the Kurds when it comes to water, he stated. 
PolCouns urged Shi'a to accept that the Federal Supreme Court 
would be able to settle any water disputes, or at least come 
up with a counter-proposal to quickly settle this issue. 
Al-Hakim agreed that it is important to finalize the text. 
He anticipated that the Coalition will provide a 
counter-proposal in a couple of days. 
 
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Water Issue Unravels Election Law Deal ? 
------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Shahristani informed Charge that Shi'a Coalition 
members noticed the enormous spike in voter registration in 
Kirkuk.  They are suspicious that the Kurds plan to take 
unfair advantage of the Shia Coalition's agreement to use 
voter rolls as the basis for estimating population and thus 
assignment of the numbers of seats per governorate in the 
next assembly.  He predicted that the Shia would seek instead 
to use population estimates extrapolated from food ration 
card data - something the Kurds had not wanted.  Charge urged 
Shahristani to address the voter registration problem 
directly with the Iraqi Elections Commission.  PolCouns 
suggested that the Elections Commission re-open the 
exhibition and challenges period whereby Kirkuk voters could 
contest the voter registry. Shahristani said he would take 
these points back to the Shi'a Coalition. 
 
7.  (U) On September 12, Pol FSNs watching from the 
Transitional National Assembly visitor's gallery reported 
that the Kurds remain steadfast in their position on water. 
Meanwhile, Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq 
member Riyadh Abdul Al-Hamza Abdul Al-Razaq Al-Barib told Pol 
FSN privately September 12 that the Shi'a recognize that the 
water issue is the last unresolved Constitutional issue and 
will eventually capitulate to the Kurds allowing them 
regional control of water resources.  He told the Assembly 
that were the Americans not helping the Kurds on the water 
issue, the Kurds would concede instead.  PolFSN reported that 
the draft election law given to TNA members this morning 
includes new language that stipulates that the 230 
governorate seats in the next national assembly will be 
assigned on the basis of population estimates extrapolated on 
last January's voter registry. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C)  We think a deal on language about authority over 
water resource management is achievable.  Both sides accept 
that the central government and regional governments should 
have roles in managing water resources.  They also accept 
that the future constitution cannot settle the exact limits 
of the authority here of the central and regional 
governments.  Neither side is seeking clear definition of 
those limits.  Creative language can probably paper over the 
real concerns and finalize the text.  Like everything else in 
these constitution negotiations, however, this will take a 
little time. 
Satterfield