US embassy cable - 02COLOMBO1975

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001975 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  10-22-12 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, PINR, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Adverse court ruling and coalition stresses 
spell trouble for government 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 220642Z Oct 02 
 
-      (B) Colombo 1968 
-      (C) Colombo 1942, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In a widely anticipated decision, 
Sri Lanka's Supreme Court has shot down the government's 
bid to rein in President Kumaratunga's powers.  The 
government is still developing its reaction to the 
adverse ruling.  On another front, the GSL continues to 
try to squelch a mutiny by a dissident faction of Muslim 
MPs led by a controversial politician.  Given the 
confluence of its recent cohabitation and coalition 
problems, the government is clearly taking on some water 
in spite of the general popularity of its peace 
initiative.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
==================== 
Adverse Court Ruling 
==================== 
 
2.  (SBU) In a widely anticipated decision foreshadowed 
in Ref C, Sri Lanka's Supreme Court has shot down the 
government's bid to rein in President Kumaratunga's 
powers.  In its (highly technical) decision formally 
announced on October 22, the court ruled that the 
section of the government's proposed "19th" 
constitutional amendment voiding the power of the 
president to call an election one-year after the last 
election required a national referendum.  This was a 
sharp surprise to the government, which thought it would 
only need two-thirds support in Parliament to pass the 
proposed amendment.  The court did state that this 
section of the proposed amendment could possibly pass 
constitutional review if it was redrafted to read that 
the president could only call a new election three years 
after the last election.  If it was redrafted in this 
fashion, the amendment could become law if it attained 
two-thirds support in Parliament without need of a 
referendum, the court stated.  As for the proposed 
amendment's other key section, the court ruled that the 
proposal to allow crossover voting in Parliament was 
unconstitutional.  (Note:  See Ref C for additional 
detail regarding the court's decision on the proposed 
"19th" amendment.) 
 
3.  (SBU) To add insult to injury, the Supreme Court 
also ruled against the government's proposed "18th" 
constitutional amendment.  The court ruled that the 
proposed amendment's clauses providing immunity to 
members of a constitutional council administering 
independent commissions were unconstitutional unless 
extensively redrafted.  In addition, a referendum was 
needed for the proposed amendment's passage into law. 
(Note:  In the 17th amendment passed last year, the 
government agreed to set up independent commissions for 
elections, the judiciary, police, and the civil service. 
Because of disagreements over immunity and other issues, 
the independent commissions are not yet in operation.) 
 
====================== 
GSL Reaction Not Clear 
====================== 
 
4.  (C) The government is still developing its reaction 
to the adverse ruling.  In a press conference, G.L. 
Peiris, the Minister for Constitutional Affairs, 
indicated that the GSL was reluctant to press for a 
referendum on the proposed "19th" amendment because the 
subject was so narrow and complex that it did not lend 
itself well to public debate.  Instead, Peiris 
indicated, the government was seriously considering 
trying to call a parliamentary election, which would 
allow the public a clear choice between the PM and the 
president.  (Note:  It is not clear whether the 
constitution allows Parliament acting on its own to call 
an election or whether it would need the president's 
blessing.  For her part, the president has made clear 
she has no plans to call an election.)  Peiris added 
that the government was also mulling over whether it 
should try to redraft the proposed "19th" amendment to 
meet the court's concerns.  Discussing the issue with 
the Ambassador, Milinda Moragoda, the Minister for 
Economic Reform, related that the government had not 
made any decisions on what to do and he did not expect 
any soon.  The PM was still reviewing the issue, he 
noted. 
 
5.  (C) While the government's next steps are still 
being determined, it is clear that it has been sorely 
embarrassed by the court's decision.  The press has been 
full of articles querying how the GSL could have drafted 
amendments that were so easily knocked down by the 
court.  (Note:  Although the court is considered pro- 
Kumaratunga in its composition, most observers believe 
that its decision was reasonably well founded.) 
Commenting on the government's predicament, Taranjit 
Sandhu, polchief at the Indian High Commission, told us 
that the government "really is looking incompetent on 
this issue and had better gets its act together 
quickly." 
 
===================== 
Fire on Another Front 
===================== 
 
6.  (C) The GSL also continues to try to squelch a 
mutiny by a dissident faction of Muslim MPs.  As 
reported in Ref B, these MPs have basically rebelled 
against the leader of their party, Rauf Hakeem of the 
Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC).  The dissidents, who 
number anywhere from three upwards, have demanded that 
the government agree to create a council for Muslims in 
the east as a condition for any interim negotiated 
solution to the conflict with the Tamil Tigers.  While 
it is not clear, the dissidents seem to be threatening 
to bolt from the government's coalition or at least 
boycott Parliament until their demands are met. For its 
part, the government is working overtime to bring the 
dissidents back into the fold.  (Note:  As related in 
Ref B, if the MPs left the coalition, it could have a 
serious impact on the governing coalition's slim 
majority status.  Even with the Muslims out of the 
equation, however, the government does not appear to be 
any immediate danger of falling because it appears that 
it can count on the support of Tamil MPs in any 
parliamentary vote of confidence.) 
 
7.  (C) The leader of the dissidents is a controversial 
figure.  A.L.M. Athaullah, 45, is the Minister for 
Highways, a non-cabinet position.  He is from Ampara 
District in the east and was a close associate of M.H.M. 
Ashraff, the founder of the SLMC who died in 2000. 
According to some observers, Athaullah has a thuggish 
reputation and a bent toward Islamic communal thinking. 
Moragoda told the Ambassador that Athaullah is using 
Islamic extremist rhetoric in an attempt to whip up 
anti-peace process opinion in the east.  Moragoda, who 
encountered Athaullah during a recent visit to the east, 
commented that he (Athaullah) seemed to be having some 
success using this tack. 
 
======= 
COMMENT 
======= 
 
8.  (C) Given the confluence of its recent cohabitation 
and coalition problems, the government is clearly taking 
on some water.  The court decision, in particular, has 
been one of the most serious setbacks it has suffered 
since coming to power in December 2001.  Despite its 
problems, the government still seems to maintain 
widespread public support due to the popularity of its 
peace initiative.  In light of its current problems, the 
government might be tempted to try to get out of the box 
it is now in by testing its presumed popularity with the 
voters via a national election.  END COMMENT. 
 
9.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS