US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA1460

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KPKO, CG 
SUBJECT: CONTENTIOUS ELECTIONS DISCUSSION AMONG THE VICE 
PRESIDENTS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece.  Reason 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: A discussion of the state of election 
preparations consumed nearly two hours during a September 6 
meeting of the International Committee to Accompany the 
Transition (CIAT) and the Espace Presidentiel (President 
Kabila and four Vice Presidents).  The discussion was marked 
by contentious exchanges among the Congolese, including 
several inflammatory and largely groundless accusations of 
irregularities by Vice President Z,Ahidi Ngoma.  All parties 
expressed determination to step up efforts to resolve ongoing 
logistics problems in voter registration.  While registration 
totals continue to grow (and now total over 9 million), the 
start of registration has been delayed in Bandundu and 
Equateur provinces because of the problems.  The need for 
rapid preparation of a general election law was also 
reiterated.  Separately, the Ambassador expressed his belief 
to President Kabila that those outside of the Election 
Commission should avoid speculation about needed voter 
registration numbers, and focus instead in public statements 
on the goal of providing registration opportunities to all 
Congolese.  Kabila concurred.  Time and logistics are clearly 
the major challenges to ensure general elections are held 
before June 30, 2006.  End summary. 
 
Elections at the Top of the Espace Presidentiel Agenda 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2. (C) The September 9 CIAT-Espace Presidentiel meeting 
opened with a discussion of the current state of election 
preparations.   The South African Ambassador in introductory 
remarks emphasized that time has become the principal 
challenge for all involved in the DRC transition, to ensure 
that general elections will be concluded by June 30, 2006. 
 
3. (C) The Independent Election Commision (CEI) Vice 
President, who had been invited to this portion of the 
meeting, started the substantive discussion with a thorough 
overview of the current state of the voter registration 
process.   This included an update on voter registration 
totals, progress in getting registration centers open in the 
eight provinces where registration is underway, and the 
by-now familiar problems regarding deployments to rural areas 
and general logistics support.  The CEI Vice President also 
reported some security concerns, including at least one 
registration machine apparently stolen as a result of an 
attack on a registration center (note: by Mai Mai).  He did 
report improvements in several areas, thanks largely to a 
strong MONUC effort to increase its support efforts to 
address the most critical needs.  The CEI official concluded 
his presentation by noting that the CEI had been obliged to 
delay the start of scheduled registration in Bandunda and 
Equateur provinces until at least September 15, and possibly 
until September 25.  The reason is that operations continuing 
in other provinces preclude the required redeployment of 
machines.   The CEI is particularly focused now on operations 
in Western Kasai and Katanga, both of which are significantly 
behind schedule.  (Comment: Voter registration totals by 
Wednesday had passed the nine million mark.  End comment.) 
 
4. (C) Subsequent interventions by the GDRC Vice Presidents 
primarily focused on criticisms of the registration process 
and its integrity.  Vice President Bemba questioned various 
aspects of how materials and machines were being allocated, 
and asked if the CEI should hire an international logistics 
expert.  (Comment: In fact, the CEI has available a number of 
international experts, including those with experience in 
organization and logistics, a fact Bemba should and probably 
does know already.  End comment.)  Vice President Z,Ahidi 
was particularly critical, citing various rumors and 
allegations of irregularities, including the outlandish 
charge that a number of registration machines have been 
spirited away to Kampala and Kigali.  Vice President Ruberwa 
reiterated familiar concerns about registration of all Kivu 
citizens, including the relatively large numbers of refugees 
outside of the country (e.g., roughly 150,000 in Tanzania; 
Banyamulenge refugees primarily in Rwanda).  The CEI Vice 
President responded in sometimes excruciating detail to each 
charge or rumor of problems, for example working through the 
list of deployments of all 10,000 registration machines, 
numbers of broken generators, centers opened in recent days, 
etc.  The often-tense exchanges among the Congolese continued 
for some time (Comment: possibly playing to a CIAT audience. 
End comment). 
 
Reiterate Need to Mobilize Logistics Support 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) By the end of the roughly two-hour discussion, there 
had been some useful conclusions.  All reaffirmed the need to 
reinforce efforts to obtain the resources necessary to 
accelerate deployment of registration equipment, people, and 
materials to rural zones.  Predictably, CIAT members tended 
to stress the need for the GDRC to utilize all available 
resources, including those available at the provincial 
government level, and to complete disbursements to fulfill 
GDRC financial pledges to the CEI.  The GDRC senior officials 
appealed for as much international assistance as possible. 
Vice President Ruberwa did promise that the Political and 
Defense Committee that he chairs will examine ways in which 
additional GDRC assets can be identified and utilized. 
 
6. (C) All parties also underscored the importance of 
starting operational planning for holding a constitutional 
referendum, needed before the next (and final) transition 
extension to be approved by December 31.  Also, it is 
important to complete drafting of the general election law, 
and have it fully reviewed in the Parliament as quickly as 
possible.  (Comment: While the electoral law cannot legally 
be formally adopted until after the constitutional 
referendum, there is a consensus view that agreement on the 
text needs to be obtained soon to permit the CEI to proceed 
with necessary preparations, such as ballot design and 
production, for general elections. End comment.) 
 
Ambassador to Kabila: Avoid the Numbers 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) In an earlier September 9 private meeting with 
President Kabila, the Ambassador noted the controversy 
created by EU Commissioner Michel,s recent public statement 
that 15 million registered voters are needed to achieve 
credible election results.  (Note: Criticism has ranged from 
accusations that Michel is seeking to limit the number of 
voters to only 15 million, to predictions that the process 
will never reach a total of 15 million registered, thus 
dooming the election process per Michel,s own declaration. 
End note.)  The Ambassador noted that local journalists had 
pressed him very hard to identify a required number as well. 
He said he had refused speculating on numbers, referring 
those questions to the CEI.  Instead, he told Kabila that he 
had asserted to reporters that the criterion for success 
should be an opportunity offered to all eligible Congolese 
citizens to register to vote.  Regardless of final numbers, 
that is the basis for a credible vote.  Kabila agreed that is 
a useful formulation for public statement. 
 
Comment: Time and Logistics 
----------------------------- 
 
8. (C) The rather gratuitous sniping by the Vice Presidents 
is perhaps disappointing, but not surprising.  Z,Ahidi, for 
example, faces a very uncertain future in elections, and has 
some vested interest in casting aspersions on the credibility 
of the process.  Bemba is always anxious to portray himself 
as the expert professional manager in contrast to the 
amateurs around him.  Despite these internal tensions, a 
regular feature of the transitional government, registration 
is moving ahead.  The logistics problems are the clear major 
immediate problem, but signs of improvements are evident, and 
the recent UNSC resolution authorizing increased MONUC 
logistics support will help as well.  Financing of the total 
election bill totaling roughly $430 million (including 
security costs) is still a concern, although the bulk of the 
money has already been identified by donors, led by EU 
pledges now totaling around $160 million, plus individual 
government contributions.  Everyone,s eyes are on the 
calendar, with a keen awareness of the need to hold the 
constitutional referendum before the end of the year, and to 
have the entire election process completed prior to the 
Transition's June 30, 2006 deadline.  End comment. 
 
 
MEECE