US embassy cable - 05MINSK1086

UNCLAS MINSK 001086 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, BO 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SET TO BE IN EARLY SUMMER 
 
1. Summary:  The chair of the Central Election Committee 
(CEC) announced on August 30 that the 2006 presidential 
election would be held no later than July 20.  The chair of 
the CEC explained the basic rules for an election campaign 
while not trying to hide her pro-Lukashenko attitude.  She 
predicted few contenders would become candidates and 
indirectly predicted Lukashenko would retain his position. 
Foreign observers are welcome, but only by invitation.  The 
CEC chair pointed out that foreign financial support for 
candidates would be viewed as a hostile move and would be 
met with appropriate actions from the MFA.  End Summary. 
 
2. Chair of the Central Election Committee (CEC) Lidia 
Yermoshina announced on August 30 that the 2006 presidential 
election would take place by July 20.   Yermoshina noted 
that according to Belarus' constitution, presidential 
elections are to be held no later than two months before the 
incumbent president's term expires.  President Lukashenko's 
term ends on September 20, 2006.  According to Yermoshina, 
the last acceptable date for an election is July 16, but 
Belarus' Chamber of Representatives would decide the date 
during their spring session. 
 
3. On September 7, the state-owned newspaper Respublika 
interviewed Yermoshina.  Yermoshina admitted that the 
elections would occur when much of the electorate would be 
on vacation.  This is not a problem, however, because the 
government plans to accommodate those on vacation by 
bringing polling boxes to sanatoriums, resorts, and even 
voters' homes and dachas (cabins).  In addition, voters can 
vote five days before the official Election Day begins. 
 
4. Yermoshina explained the eligibility requirements to run 
for the office of the president.  Candidates must be 
Belarusian citizens, 35 years or older, and have resided in 
Belarus for the last ten years.  In order to be on the 
ballot, a candidate must collect 100,000 signatures, but 
according to Yermoshina, only influential and well-known 
politicians are able to accomplish this.  Yermoshina noted 
that four politicians gathered the needed signatures in 
2001, but more than four candidates at the next presidential 
election would be "very imaginative."  Besides, Yermoshina 
stressed, other than President Lukashenko, there is no other 
well-known figure in the political figure and, therefore, 
there would be no need for second-round elections. 
 
5. A candidate can begin campaigning only after he/she is 
registered, but no sooner than one month before Election 
Day.  According to Yermoshina, all candidates can speak on 
the radio, television, and publish their latforms and 
issues in one of the central governent newspapers.  Each 
candidate will receive USD 7,000 from the state budget for 
their campaign, articularly to print leaflets.  However, 
Yermoshna warned that any Western financing for candidate 
will be viewed as interference in domestic affars; such 
activity will be met with a strong reacton from the MFA and 
law enforcement bodies will ake appropriate actions, 
including against diploats.  Yermoshina opined that Western 
money would only be used for dirty campaigning and for 
discrediting the leading presidential candidate, much like 
what allegedly happened in 2001.  International observers 
will be invited in principle, but the actual composition of 
observer teams is a question the President, MFA, and 
Parliament will decide. 
 
6. Comment:  Even though a date is not set, the 2006 
Presidential elections will most likely take place in the 
early summer.  Yermoshina, towing the usual "free and fair" 
election line, could not hide her pro-Lukashenko attitude 
and expectations that Lukashenko will "win" a third term as 
president.  This is the beginning of the election campaign 
and the outcome already appears to be decided. 
 
PHLIPOT