US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2883

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002883 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  A POLITICAL PARTY PRIMER 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 2202 
     B. ABUJA 2862 
 
 
Classified by DCM Timothy D. Andrews.  Reasons:  1.5 (B & D). 
 
 
1.  (C)  INTRODUCTION:  With the registration of three new 
political parties, the political landscape for Nigeria's 
2003 election cycle now includes six political parties: 
the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), the Alliance 
for Democracy (AD), the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP), 
the National Democratic Party (NDP), the All People's Grand 
Alliance (APGA), United Nigerian People's Party (UNPP).  By 
definition, each party has a national character and exists 
under guidelines that define how many offices they must 
maintain throughout the country.  Given President 
Obasanjo's perceived electoral weakness, it is too early to 
predict what the scene may look like as elections approach, 
but the following snapshot provides the current status of 
each.  END INTRODUCTION. 
 
 
People's Democratic Party (PDP) 
------------------------------- 
 
 
2.  (C)  The ruling PDP is blessed with some of the 
strongest personalities in the country, including the 
incumbent President Olusegun Obasanjo.  However, this 
blessing is also its curse.  The PDP is formed from a core 
group of supporters of the late Shehu Yar'adua and led by 
current Vice-president Atiku Abubakar, but the party is 
augmented by numerous locally powerful politicians who 
agreed to support the party in the previous round of 
elections.  This marriage of convenience, while effective 
in 1999, has grown strained.  There just are not enough 
political "goods" for all the potentates in the party.  The 
President embodies incumbency's advantages, but he has very 
little personal support within the party.  Vice President 
Atiku Abubakar, on the other hand, is a highly proficient 
politician who has spent his time building relationships at 
home while his boss traveled the world.  The rift between 
Obasanjo and Atiku (ref B) is almost public and probably 
irreparable.  An outright public break between the two men 
would weaken each and could cause many of the local 
strongmen to flee to other parties with little risk to 
their own local political futures. 
 
 
Alliance for Democracy (AD) 
--------------------------- 
 
 
3.  (C)  The AD, the second of the three parties, while 
maintaining a presence nationwide, is a party of Southwest 
Nigeria (Yorubaland).  As such, the AD remains active in 
national politics, but has little hope of fielding a 
presidential candidate.  For now, the AD appears content to 
consolidate its hold on the Southwest while expanding into 
neighboring areas where possible.  According to some party 
leaders, the AD hopes to pick up a few Senate and House 
seats in the South-South and the Middle Belt areas.  One 
has said that the party would be competitive for statewide 
offices in Kwara, Plateau and Benue states in the coming 
elections.  The desire of the AD politicians is to maintain 
a distinct Yoruba character while attracting some minority 
support from these mixed regions. 
 
 
All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
4.  (C)  The ANPP changed its name from APP in anticipation 
of a merger with the UNPP, which subsequently was aborted. 
The ANPP has attracted a diverse list of supporters from 
throughout the nation.  This makes for strange bedfellows. 
One announced presidential candidate, former military 
leader Mohammadu Buhari, appeals to the Northern masses but 
is anathema to the ANPP's core backers, Northern elites. 
It is making efforts to attract more support in the South- 
South and Southeast in order to continue Northern influence 
in Nigeria's political process.  Its prospects for gaining 
the presidency depend largely on the travails of the PDP 
and Obasanjo's decisions on self-succession. 
 
 
National Democratic Party (NDP) 
------------------------------- 
 
 
5.  (C)  The NDP was allegedly registered with the support 
of former military leader Ibrahim Babangida (IBB).  The NDP 
has a scattering of support among youth, particularly in 
the North but will wield little influence in the upcoming 
elections if it cannot attract a big name candidate.  The 
clear preference of the party's leadership and grassroots 
supporters is to convince IBB himself to become the party's 
standard bearer.  But IBB's current intentions are unclear, 
and he has other vehicles that might prove more roadworthy. 
 
 
All People's Grand Alliance (APGA) 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
6.  (C)  The APGA, also midwifed by IBB, has also met with 
little success in attracting nationwide support.  Its hope 
seems to be to evolve into the party of choice for the Igbo 
community of the Southeast.  While it has had some success 
in attracting Igbo politicians, the Igbo themselves are 
split on what their role should be in the elections and 
what strategy to pursue.  Some are content to play second 
fiddle to a Northern standard-bearer while others argue 
that the time has come for the Igbo to present a serious 
Presidential candidate of their own.  If the APGA can help 
consolidate Igbo views, it might evolve into a Southeastern 
version of the AD and become the powerbroker for the 
Southeast.  If not, the party may wither on the vine. 
 
 
United Nigerian People's Party (UNPP) 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
7.  (C)  The UNPP, the third party reportedly formed with 
IBB's support, has since turned on its reported benefactor 
over alleged broken promises.  While enjoying some success 
in gaining supporters outside the North, it has not been 
able to position itself as an alternative to the original 
three parties and appears in no danger of doing so soon. 
 
 
8.  (C)  COMMENT:  While the political situation remains 
very fluid, some lines are discernible.  The PDP and the 
ANPP remain the two parties to beat in national elections, 
with the AD solid in its home base.  If the PDP cannot 
resolve its internal differences, its strongest supporters 
will have no reason to remain loyal and can jump to one of 
the other parties with relative impunity.  The ANPP is 
best-positioned to capitalize on the disarray within the 
ruling party and hopes to pick up significant support in 
the upcoming weeks as succession issues are being sorted 
out.  As always, personalities matter more than parties in 
the crunch of an election campaign.  Until fence-sitters 
and aisle-crossers settle down, it will remain impossible 
to estimate how the parties will fare in legislative and 
gubernatorial elections. 
JETER