US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3718

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003718 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Sunni Arab 
SUBJECT: SUNNIS PESSIMISTIC ON PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR 
CONSTITUTION 
 
 
Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD, FOR REASO 
NS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY: Deputy Prime Minister Abid Mutlak al-Jaburi 
predicted to Charge September 10 that without changes to the 
draft text, especially on the issue of Iraq's Arab identity, 
no Sunni political figure would publicly support the 
constitution.  Another Sunni Arab negotiator, Shaykh Anwar 
al-Lahibi, told PolCouns September 9 that while the text was 
"80 percent good," without a change on the identity issue he 
doubted Sunni Arabs would support it.  Separately, Iraqi 
Council of National Dialogue (ICND) member and Constitution 
Committee expert Dr. Saadoon al-Zubaidi told PolOff September 
10 he was pessimistic about the results of Sunni-Kurdish 
meetings in Irbil over the last few days.  There are no 
reports of any agreed changes to the Constitution as a result 
of these meetings.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (C)  Deputy Prime Minister and political independent Abid 
Mutlak al-Jaburi told Charge September 10 that without 
"small" changes to the text, no Sunni Arab political figure 
would publicly support the draft constitution.  He had no 
news about the discussions in Irbil.  The most important 
change, he said, would be reaffirmation of Iraq's Arab 
identity.  He asserted that Kurdish acceptance of such 
language would change nothing on the ground but would 
reassure the Sunni Arab community.  Al-Jaburi also said it 
would be better to tighten the conditions under which new 
regions could be established.  Charge cautioned al-Jaburi 
that the window for additional changes was about closed.  If 
al-Jaburi felt strongly about such changes, he should talk to 
Kurdish leader Masood Barzani immediately.  Charge cautioned 
that the kinds of amendments to the text that al-Jaburi is 
seeking are not "small" changes and will be difficult if not 
impossible now. 
 
3. (C)  Al-Jaburi also provided a copy of a letter signed by 
Iraqi Islamic Party General Secretary Tariq al-Hashimi 
September 3 calling for Sunni suspension of participation in 
the government in response to the ITG's "unjust campaign 
against the Sunni".  The letter asks senior Sunni officials 
to resign if the government does not respond to their 
demands.  It was addressed to al-Jaburi, Vice President 
al-Yawr, Governorate Affairs Minister al-Hardan, Defense 
Minister al-Duleimi, Industry and Minerals Minister 
al-Najafi, Culture Minister al-Rawi and Women's Affairs 
Minister al-Shaikhly.  Al-Jaburi said he would reject 
al-Hashimi's proposal and had extracted signed pledges from 
almost all the other recipients to do the same.  (Al-Yawr, 
al-Jaburi said, had "authorized" the Deputy Prime Minister to 
sign for him.)  However, al-Jaburi stressed that the 
situation is becoming increasingly difficult for Sunni 
figures in the ITG who want to support the draft constitution. 
 
4. (C) Al-Jaburi characterized the position reflected in 
al-Hashimi's letter as an effort to remain politically 
competitive on the Sunni Arab street with the Moslem Ulama 
Council, which has taken a hardline stand on the draft 
constitution. PolCouns responded that it would be more 
constructive for Sunni leaders to tell groups like the Ulama 
Council to stop making inflammatory remarks. 
 
5.  (C)  Another Sunni Arab political leader, Shaykh Anwar 
al-Lahibi from Ninewah, told PolCouns late September 9 that 
the draft text was "80 percent good," but Sunni Arab 
politicians would not support it as it stands.  Al-Lahibi 
said the Sunni Arab negotiators had not yet provided a 
detailed readout to their colleagues in Baghdad.  He insisted 
that the Iraqi identity issue is vital to the Sunni Arab 
street.  Second most important, he stated, was adjusting the 
federalism language to make less certain the establishment of 
new regional entities.  PolCouns noted that the text in these 
areas already had been adjusted so that Iraq's Arab League 
membership is highlighted and the mechanism of determining 
regional entities is pushed off to next year.  Al-Lahibi 
doubted the changes would be enough to win much Sunni support. 
 
6. (C)  Meanwhile, our Baghdad political contacts have 
received little information on the status of the Irbil 
meetings between Sunni and Kurdish representatives.  Known 
participants at the talks include ICND members Mahmoud 
Mashadani and Sheikh Abd al-Nasser al-Janabi, former Sunni 
Waqf leader Adnan al-Duleimi, IIP Secretary General 
al-Hashimi, and Saad al-Janabi. There are no reports of 
agreed changes resulting from these discussions.  In 
particular, there is no indication of resolution on the 
wording of Article Three, which states that Iraq is a 
founding member of the Arab League obliged to follow its 
statutes. 
Satterfield