US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA2726

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 OTTAWA 002726 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015 
TAGS: CA, PGOV, PREL 
SUBJECT: UNCERTAINTY THE OPERATIVE WORD AS PARLIAMENT SET 
TO RESUME 
 
 
Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reason 1.4 (B) (D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The Canadian Parliament is scheduled to 
resume on September 27, amidst a political climate that is 
best defined by uncertainty.  PM Martin has the option to 
prorogue Parliament, which would end the current session and 
reset the agenda by calling for a new session and an early 
confidence vote over the Throne Speech.  This would buy him 
some time and leverage but would be very unpopular with many 
Canadians who want to see Parliament work.  When the last 
session ended the Canadian public seemed ready to punish the 
Liberals over the corruption scandal, but without bringing in 
the Conservatives in the process.   How deep the chastening 
process needs to go is not clear, but there are indications 
that many feel it has gone far enough.  The Conservatives 
made no gains over the summer and the Liberals held their 
own, and may be banking on the possibility of starting fresh 
as a more humble party, ready to get down to business.  It 
also didn't hurt that in the last session the Liberals, 
although struggling to survive, still chalked up a reasonable 
record of accomplishments along the way. 
 
2. (C) As Parliament resumes, all energies will be focused on 
preparing for the next election, which PM Martin promised 
would be held 30 days after the release of the Gomery report, 
last scheduled for mid-December.  A December-January election 
is unlikely, however, given weather conditions, and it is 
more likely that Martin will appeal for reason and set a date 
for an early spring election, something the opposition would 
be in no position to oppose beyond superficial protests for 
appearances sake.  The Liberals will use that period to shore 
up their numbers, focusing on Quebec and Ontario, and barring 
any major missteps will probably continue to at least hold 
onto power as a minority government.  The Conservative lack 
of traction is related both to the deficiency of a compelling 
agenda, and the absence of a leader that people outside of 
Western Canada can rally behind.  Conservative MP James Moore 
believes the real problem with Stephen Harper is not just 
that he comes across stiff, but also as a Western figurehead 
who lacks the essential nationalist credentials that 
Canadians require of their Prime Ministers.  With so much up 
in the air, the only certainty is that the next term, like 
last year, will be a wild ride.  End Summary 
 
SESSION HIGHS AND LOWS 
---------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) In purely legislative terms, the Parliamentary 
sitting from September to June was minimally successful. 
(Note: a session of Parliament does not technically end until 
it is prorogued or until an election is called, thus the 
current Liberal Government still sits as the First Session of 
the 38th Parliament, which will continue when Parliament 
resumes.  End Note).  The average number of bills introduced 
per session since September 1996 (when Parliament began 
compiling statistics) is 57, with a high of 88 bills for a 
two-year session in 1997 and a low of 37 in a two-month 
session.  These were all majority governments. 
 
4. (SBU) In the nine months of the current session, 34 of 60 
bills introduced have passed, a credible number given the 
government's minority status.  Critics pointed out that the 
overall quality of the bills passed was lackluster -- there 
were spending estimates, treaty obligations, and routine 
business, including the Competition Act, the Canadian Grain 
Act, and a bill on migratory birds, hardly the stuff of 
headlines.  But government supporters pointed to the 
high-profile same-sex marriage bill, a hard-fought budget 
bill, and laws on mental disorders, the protection of 
children, and the veteran's charter as indicators that the 
government was not just marking time. 
 
5. (C) If the session was a bit slow, it was largely because 
the Liberals spent a good deal of energy just trying to 
survive.  From the Throne Speech in early October the 
Liberals went from being merely distracted as they tried to 
find their footing in a minority parliament, to full crisis 
mode as the Gomery inquiry into the Quebec advertising 
scandal put them fully on defense in the spring.  But the 
Liberals proved adept at survival.  Throughout the session 
Liberal House Leader Tony Valeri (the "Dark Prince of 
Parliamentary Procedure" according to the Hill Times) teamed 
up with 40-year veteran Senior Legislative Counsel Jerry 
Yanover to run circles around the Opposition -- canceling 
opposition days, cutting off debate through obscure tactics 
such as Time Allocation, and forcing unscheduled votes onto 
their schedule. 
 
6. (C) The Liberals also bought public support by painting 
the Conservatives as in bed with the separatists, which was 
chilling at a time when separatism was again raising its ugly 
head (ironic, since revelations of the Liberal advertising 
sponsorship program sparked renewed separatist sentiment in 
the first place and the Liberals sought Bloc support for 
legislation whenever they needed it).  Throughout the session 
the Liberals also looked for ways to chip away at the 
Conservative numbers, buying the defection of Conservative 
Belinda Stronach with a cabinet position, and welcoming that 
of Independent Chuck Cadman, whose constituents did not want 
to see an election so soon.  Martin finally bought the 
support of the NDP by pushing through a budget amendment that 
was tailored to their core projects.  All of this was shored 
up by PM Martin's direct appeal to the Canadian people in a 
televised address, in which he conceded blame, but promised 
to get to the bottom of it by continuing the Gomery inquiry 
and offered to call for an election 30 days after the release 
of the Gomery report. 
 
7. (C) In the end the Liberals came within one vote of losing 
a confidence motion on May 19, but their survival bought them 
the summer to regroup.  It was a fairly high price to pay for 
survival, but the Liberal's staying in power appeared to be 
in synch with the Canadian public's wish to punish the Grits 
without bringing the Tories into power. 
 
MR. DITHERS? -- MAYBE NOT 
------------------------- 
 
8. (C) PM Martin's leadership was repeatedly questioned 
during the session.  His tendency to work on multiple issues 
without bringing any of them to closure earned him the title 
"Mr. Dithers."  But according to Globe and Mail's Lawrence 
Martin the title may not be completely deserved.  He points 
to the following accomplishments as evidence of a capable 
leader: 
 
--    Securing same-sex marriage legislation 
--    Cutting budget deal with the NDP 
--    Stealing Belinda Stronach 
--    Weathering the Gomery Inquiry 
--    Hiding from the Grewal Tape trap (in which a 
Conservative MP recorded conversations with senior Liberals 
attempting to buy his defection) 
--    Emerging with a ten-point lead over the Conservatives 
 
PM Martin has certainly held his own and is a force to be 
reckoned with for the opposition. 
 
WHAT'S NEXT? 
------------ 
 
9. (C) Parliament is set to resume on 27 September.  A 
rumored early recall of Parliament to discuss the softwood 
lumber issue was probably never more than bluster to begin 
with and, in any event, in the wake of Katrina a recall to 
beat up on the U.S. would never happen.  The more realistic 
question is whether PM Martin will prorogue Parliament, which 
ends the parliamentary session until a new session begins 
including a new Throne Speech.  According to political 
analyst Bruce Campbell, a prorogation would have a number of 
advantages for the Liberals.  First, it would give the 
government free advertising of its generally popular agenda 
through the Throne Speech, putting the Conservatives on the 
defensive in the process.  Second, it would create a 
confidence vote at a time when the Liberals likely have the 
numbers to survive it, securing a mandate for them at the 
beginning of the term.  Third, it would clear the 
parliamentary agenda "allowing any bills, motions, and 
references to committees which the government does not want 
to see proceed to 'die on the order paper." 
 
10. (C) But this step would also be very unpopular with many 
Canadians, and would make the NDP, whose mantra is "making 
government work" livid.  The Conservatives could also accuse 
the Liberals of ducking out at a time when gas prices are sky 
high and without dealing with the issues related to Ontario's 
economy that have been trumpeted by Premier McGuinty for the 
past year.  If the PM decides to prorogue, the government 
could announce it in advance, or may simply do so when 
Parliament resumes. 
 
11. (SBU) As Parliament drifts in, the numbers are as follows: 
 
Liberals                      133 
NDP                            19 
Independent Parrish             1 
Total                         153 (Speaker only votes to 
break  a tie) 
 
Conservatives                  98 
Bloq Quebecois                 54 
Total                         152 
 
Undecided Independents        2 
David Kilgour (former Liberal but voted against the 
government in last confidence vote because of frustration 
over Sudan) 
Pat O/Brien (former Liberal who left the caucus over same-sex 
marriage issue; voted against the Government in confidence 
vote) 
 
Vacant                        1 
      Independent Chuck Cadman died in July 
 
Total                         308 
 
In any confidence vote the outcome would be in the hands of 
the independents. 
 
12. (C) The political alignments in Parliament are constantly 
shifting and the parties will, like last year at this time, 
go into the session without clear partners.  The NDP 
supported the Liberals through the last round of confidence 
votes, but made clear that its support was conditionally tied 
to the budget and would end when the budget bill was passed. 
The Bloc and Conservatives have been working in concert to 
bring the government down, but for wildly different reasons 
and with almost no shared social or political values.  In any 
case, the Conservatives need to be careful not to get too 
close to the Bloc because it tarnishes their nationalist 
credentials.  How these alignments will shift in the coming 
session is an open question. 
 
ELECTION COMING? 
---------------- 
 
13. (C) In a sense, the next term will be one long election 
season.  PM Martin promised to hold an election 30 days after 
the release of the Gomery commission final report on the 
sponsorship scandal.  The problem is the report's release on 
December 15 would lead to an election in "deep winter," which 
would be very unpopular here.  Despite his assurances that he 
will proceed as announced, the PM could easily get around 
this by suggesting a date as early as possible in the spring 
and asking the opposition parties for their support. 
 
14. (C) Martin would most likely lead another minority 
government after the election.  The Liberals have gained 
little ground in either Ontario or Quebec but nor have the 
Conservatives.  One recent poll shows the Liberals regaining 
some support in Quebec, not but enough to increase their 
seats.  What is helping the Liberals according to Bruce 
Campbell is the simple lack of traction on the part of the 
Conservatives.  Campbell told Poloff that this is both policy 
and personality driven. The Conservatives tried to work both 
problems throughout the summer, but without success in the 
polls.  They spent the first half of the summer trying to 
make Stephen Harper look more like the normal Canadian next 
door and less like a Western political wonk by putting him on 
the barbeque circuit, but largely struck out.  In August they 
changed tactics and started to go to their traditional 
strength and showcase policies, but this also largely fell 
flat -- the two key issues of gas tax and child care 
resonated among the faithful but did not appear to pull in 
the fence sitters. 
 
CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
15. (C) The most recent Conservative issue, standing up to 
the U.S. on softwood lumber by revisiting the rules of the 
road in NAFTA and Canada's trade relations, could turn into a 
winner on the margins.  It will help the Conservatives build 
in some distance from the U.S., and if they can massage the 
message as one of "free trade from a position of strength," 
it will help them.  But no policy issue can overcome the 
aversion which Canadians in the East appear to have to 
Stephen Harper.  Harper has simply not been able to break 
through to mainstream Canadians, especially in Ontario and 
Quebec, where he comes across as out of touch.  There has 
been talk of party faithful convincing Harper to step down 
prior to an election, but analyst Campbell believes he will 
more likely ride out the next election, leaving the party to 
regroup after it loses. 
 
16. (C) Conservative MP James Moore believes that Harper's 
problem is not just that he comes across aloof, wonky, and 
Western, but that he is lacking in essential nationalist 
credentials.  What Canadians look for, Moore says, is a 
leader who epitomizes the nation of Canada, and has served in 
positions that are national, not regional.  All recent 
leaders, Chretien, Trudeau, Martin, Mulroney, were seen as 
strong nationalists, who were associated with Canada, not a 
specific province.  While Harper has had a national profile 
for the past several years, Moore believes that Canadians are 
still suspicious that his heart is still in the West.  He 
believes the party will not succeed until Harper steps aside 
and another leader, such as Bernard Lord, takes the helm. 
 
17. (SBU) As we predicted this time last year, once again 
Parliament is embarking on a largely uncharted journey, and 
it is sure to be one wild ride. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
WILKINS