US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2882

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002882 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PDP FAILS TO RESOLVE INTERNAL CRISIS 
 
REF: ABUJA 2862 
 
 
Classified by DCM Timothy Andrews. Reasons 1.5 (B & D). 
 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  PDP officials hoped that the October 14 
meeting between the President and PDP legislators and 
governors would effectuate a rapprochement within the 
divided party.  The session did not meet these 
expectations.  Insiders told us that the meeting was 
acrimonious and a less-than-adequate "apology" by Obasanjo 
did not satisfy the National Assembly members.  Vice- 
president Atiku was notably absent from the meeting.  In 
the end, the only achievement was the appointment of 
another committee to negotiate with both sides in the 
ongoing crisis.  Failure to resolve the issue only delays 
much anticipated decisions by Obasanjo and the PDP which 
could make succession scenarios clearer.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C)  The PDP meeting on Monday October 14 was well 
attended, with PDP legislators, governors, dozens of party 
members and the President all participating.  Conspicuously 
absent was Vice President Atiku Abubakar.  A PDP insider 
told Poloff that Atiku absented himself to avoid expected 
questions about the timing of party primaries.  While 
Obasanjo preferred holding the Presidential primary first, 
Atiku had hinted that his preference to hold the 
Presidential primary last.  The insider said that 
Obasanjo's supporters had planned to pin Atiku down on the 
issue and force Atiku's hand on his often-bruited 
presidential aspirations.  According to one of the 
attendees, the atmosphere was "acrimonious."  There was 
more recrimination than reconciliation. 
 
 
3.  (C)  National Party Chairman Audu Ogbeh stressed, as he 
did in an earlier meeting with AF/W Director Michael 
Arietti that day, that the PDP's electoral chances at all 
levels of elections in 2003 would be greatly diminished if 
the warring party members did not reunite.  In spite of 
Ogbeh's urgings, House Speaker Ghali Na'Abba criticized 
Obasanjo for supporting the Independent Corrupt Practices 
Commission's (ICPC) investigation against him. Na'abba 
reportedly told the President, "I may have done some things 
which the ICPC could find fault with," but said that 
Obasanjo should be cautious because "similar accusations 
could be launched against many close to the Presidency as 
well." 
 
 
4.  (C)  Discussing the impeachment efforts, several PDP 
members said the list of 32 offenses allegedly committed by 
Obasanjo were not impeachable offenses. Responding to these 
comments, Na'Abba assented to call a meeting of the PDP 
Assembly caucus to discuss withdrawing the impeachment 
threat.  However, according to a PDP official, only Na'Abba 
and Deputy Speaker Chibudom Nwuche showed up for the 
caucus. 
 
 
5.  (C)  Faced with mounting opposition, Obasanjo offered 
an apology of sorts.  According to press reports, Obasanjo 
said he was not seeking to impeach Na'Abba and Senate 
President Anyim Pius Anyim and urged everyone to "open 
lines of communications" in an effort to resolve the 
party's internal conflicts.  An attendee at the meeting 
commented to Poloff that Obasanjo's statement, rather than 
giving the apology demanded by the Legislative Branch, was 
diplomatic but inadequate.  Obasanjo reiterated his 
position that he had really done nothing impeachable, but 
allowed mistakes could have been made. 
 
 
6.  (C)  After all that was said among the principals who 
attended, there was no breakthrough.  Carefully, the 
attendees agreed to appoint a 15-member committee to 
discuss the findings of the previously constituted 10- 
member panel on ways to resolve the crisis.  No timetable 
was set for these deliberations, but the House and Senate 
members reportedly agreed to put impeachment efforts on 
hold until after the new committee prepared its report. 
According to another source, Obasanjo is finally realizing 
that he may have some trouble with his image, but was still 
being misled by Minister of Works and Housing Tony Anenih, 
who "swears on his Bible to Obasanjo that he can deliver 
reelection without making any concessions." 
 
 
7.  (C)  Meanwhile, Obasanjo has taken no overt steps to 
meet the demands of Atiku and his key Northern backers from 
1999 (reftel).  Atiku told us privately that he had little 
hope that tangible progress was in the offing and that he 
had low expectations for this latest reconciliation 
committee. 
 
 
8.  (U)  Briefing the press after the meeting, Ogbeh said 
that the meeting was "one of the best the party has held 
since he became chairman." 
 
 
9.  (C)  COMMENT:  This meeting had been referred to by 
many PDP insiders as a "make or break" meeting.  Falling 
short, the result does not strengthen optimism that the PDP 
can work out its internal differences and adopt a winning 
strategy for the upcoming round of elections.  By ignoring 
or delaying the difficult issues underlying the PDP's rift, 
scenarios for party conventions, elections and presidential 
succession remain as murky as ever. 
JETER