US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3284

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ALMATY 003284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KPAO, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION BUYS 
CRITIC'S SILENCE 
 
 
Classified By: CDA MARK ASQUINO, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY: Nurbulat Masanov, a well-known human rights 
activist and political commentator, will forego his role as 
expert analyst at a discussion club to head an institute on 
ethnology created for him by the presidential administration. 
 In accepting the new position, Masanov agreed to refrain 
from criticizing the president in the run-up to December's 
presidential elections.  Masanov predicted that the 
administration would likely interfere in the electoral 
process, because they need to maintain the administrative 
mechanism of fraud for the future, when the competition might 
be closer and they would need to fix the results.  Silencing 
Masanov's analysis and commentary during the campaign period 
is a loss both to the opposition, as well as to the public 
trying to make informed decisions about whom to support for 
president.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
AN OFFER HE COULDN'T REFUSE 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Nurbulat Masanov, the deputy general director of the 
Polyton Discussion Club and well-known human rights activist, 
told emboff September 8 that Marat Tazhin, deputy head of the 
Presidential Administration, offered him a paid position to 
head an institute on ethnography with 50 staff and 
researchers in Almaty.  In accepting the offer, Masanov had 
to agree to refrain from criticizing the president in the 
run-up to December's presidential elections.  Masanov will 
stay on at Polyton as a moderator of discussions, calling on 
participants, but he will no longer offer his 
throught-provoking, insightful critiques of both the 
opposition and the administration on a broad array of social 
and political issues.  At their meeting Tazhin asked Masanov 
what he would trade for his position as the club's deputy 
director.  Masanov is an academic by profession, and has 
devoted his life to the study of ethnology.  He told Tazhin 
he had been blacklisted, and was unable to get a teaching 
position at any of the universities in Kazakhstan.  (Note: 
According to "Who's Who In Kazakhstan," he was a professor at 
Kazakh State University until 1998.)  Tazhin then asked him, 
"Well, what if you had your own institute?"  It was an offer 
Masanov could not refuse.  Tazhin must have been confident of 
the answer, because the administration has already identified 
a building to house the institute. 
 
3. (C) Masanov was pleased with the unexpected development in 
his academic career and unapologetic about his decision to 
accept the administration's offer.  He did, however, want to 
explain how he made the decision to embassy representatives, 
who attend the Polyton discussions and have supported 
Polyton's applications for National Endowment for Democracy 
grants.  Although Masanov did not say what salary Tazhin 
offered, other sources said he took the position to support 
his family.  His modest salary as the club's deputy director 
was covered in the NED grant. 
 
 
2005 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS:  FRAUD AS USUAL 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Masanov said that  the presidential elections in 
December will be conducted fraudulently as usual, and will 
not be open, fair or transparent as Nazarbayev and his team 
have promised.  He said the administration would still take 
measures to fix the results for Nazarbayev, because they 
needed to maintain the system of electoral fraud for the 
future.  Fair elections would set a precedent that 
Kazakhstanis would demand in all subsequent contests, and 
Nazarbayev was not ready for a true commitment to clean 
elections. 
 
 
AN ETHNOLOGIST'S TAKE ON NAZARBAYEV 
----------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Masanov's passion is the study of 'kochevniki,' the 
nomads of Kazakhstan, and he has written several books and 
over 200 scholarly articles on the subject.  As an 
ethnologist, he analyzes local politics through the prism of 
Kazakh nomadic customs and characteristics.  Masanov said 
Nazarbayev engaged in politics like a canny nomadic horse 
trader, and made separate deals with disparate and sometimes 
conflicting partners, but always with the aim of securing his 
own objective.  He cited the maneuvering on the BTC pipeline 
as an example.  Nazarbayev appeared at the opening in May 
with U.S. Secretary of Energy Bodeman and the presidents of 
Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.  However, Nazarbayev made no 
formal commitments at the gathering in deference to Russia, 
E 
 
 
which continues to view  the pipeline as a threat to its own 
oil pipelines.  He said Nazarbayev would eventually sign, but 
in his own time. 
 
6. (C) As for how Nazarbayev might view his place in history, 
Masanov said Nazarbayev considered himself the founder of the 
first state of Kazakhstan.  He  was determined to secure 
Kazakhstan's place on the international stage and in world 
history.   Masanov said all Nazarbayev's decisions and 
actions as president were taken with the goal of making 
Kazakhstan a force to be reckoned with among other world 
powers:  fostering a democratic society is not part of his 
vision.  Securing the OSCE chairmanship, however, is very 
important for Nazarbayev, he said, because the chairmanship 
would not only secure Kazakhstan's standing in the 
international community, but also would show Kazakhstan's 
superiority over all other former Soviet republics and Russia. 
 
 
OPPOSITION'S LOSS, ADMINISTRATION'S GAIN 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Some observers say that the opposition should have 
recognized Masanov's value and paid him a salary for acting 
as Polyton's moderator and analyst.  Based on his comments 
about the oppostion, Masanov may have made his decision after 
being snubbed by "For a Just Kazakhstan" leader Zharmakhan 
Tuyakbay.  Masanov said he acted in the past as an advisor to 
Ak Zhol chairman Alikhan Baimenov. Tuyakbay approached 
Masaonov about a similar role in FJK, but then never 
developed a working relationship with him. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  The GOK's apparent "buying-off" of Masanov 
will silence an astute analyst who has provided incisive 
commentary on political issues and personalities.  Losing 
Masaonov's perspective as Polyton's moderator during this 
crucial campaign period will be a  great loss to the 
opposition.  In addition, it will be a loss to voters seeking 
alternate points of view to those provided by the GOK's media 
spin-machines in the lead-up to the December presidential 
election. 
 
9. (U)  Minimize for Dushanbe considered. 
ASQUINO 
 
 
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