US embassy cable - 05ANKARA5270

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005270 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015 
TAGS: PREL, IS, IR, IZ, TU 
SUBJECT: KING ABDULLAH VISITS TURKEY, SHARES CONCERNS ABOUT 
IRAQ CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS 
 
REF: AMMAN 7157 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
Summary 
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1.  (C)  Jordan's King Abdullah visited Ankara September 5 at 
his initiative and met briefly with Turkish President Sezer, 
PM Erdogan and FonMin Gul.  Focusing on Iraq, Abdullah 
reportedly expressed two major concerns: first, that Iraq's 
Sunnis are becoming alienated from the constitutional 
process, which they view as overemphasizing sectarian 
interests over Iraqi unity, and second, that if Shias and 
Kurds feel they can go their separate ways, Iran's influence 
in Iraq would only be strengthened.  Abdullah and the Turks 
agreed to more intense Jordan-Turkey consultations to find 
ways to ensure all Iraq's groups are kept in the process, 
Iraqi national unity is promoted over sectarian interests, 
and Iran's influence is not allowed to grow.  Abdullah said 
he would also discuss these concerns with President Bush 
(NFI).  Discussions also touched upon the Middle East Peace 
Process, with both sides agreeing Israel's pullout from Gaza 
represented a major opportunity that should not be 
squandered.  End Summary 
 
Jordanian Concerns about Sunni Participation in Iraq 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
2.  (C)  King Abdullah spent a few hours in Ankara September 
5 consulting with President Sezer and PM Erdogan on Iraq, the 
Middle East Peace Process, and bilateral issues.  MFA sources 
tell us the visit was hastily arranged at Abdullah's  request 
and Iraq was foremost on his mind.  MFA DG for Middle East 
Celikkol told PolMilCouns September 7 Abdullah was worried 
about growing Iranian influence on Iraqi politics.  The King 
asked for increased Jordan-Turkey consultation and 
cooperation, including the exchange of "information and 
notes" on Iraq, and the Turks agreed.  According to Celikkol, 
the King asserted he had some influence with Shia groups not 
under Tehran's control as well as some moderate Sunni groups. 
 Celikkol said the King believes the constitution will be 
approved in the referendum; he is more concerned about the 
outcome of the December general elections.  Asked what other 
Arab governments were doing to address his concern, Abdullah 
asserted the North Africans were distant and disinterested 
while other Arab leaders were fearful of engaging more fully 
for fear of attacks on their diplomatic personnel and out of 
concern for their own, potentially restive Shia populations 
(save Egypt). 
 
3.  (C) Expanding on Celikkol's report, MFA Middle East 
Department Head Sedat Onal told Poloffs September 8 that 
Abdullah reiterated long-standing concern that Iraq's Sunnis 
are being alienated from the political process, especially 
the development of the constitution.  According to Abdullah, 
the Sunnis are increasingly convinced the constitution as 
drafted does not serve their needs, emphasizing the interests 
of different ethnic and religious groups at the expense of a 
broad Iraqi identity.  Abdullah worried that if the Shias and 
Kurds feel emboldened to go their own separate ways in Iraq, 
Iranian influence on Iraqi politics will only grow.  If the 
Shia gain wider influence in Iraq than justified by their 
proportion of the population, the "Shia Crescent" in the 
region will be strengthened.  In this context, Shia rumblings 
about an autonomous region are troubling.  Abdullah 
reportedly called for greater cooperation to ensure all Iraqi 
groups remain involved in the political process and that a 
broad Iraqi identity is protected and encouraged over 
sectarian interests.  According to Onal, President Sezer 
agreed with the King's assessment and noted that there is 
still time for the Sunnis to increase their participation, 
particularly in forming the legislation that will fill out 
the constitutional framework.  PM Erdogan reportedly agreed 
more emphasis must be placed on a unified Iraqi identity but 
the actions of the Shias as well as the Kurds are a 
disturbing sign that communal tendencies continue to dominate. 
 
MEPP -- Not Losing an Opportunity 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  According to the MFA, the King and his hosts touched 
on the MEPP, with the Turks reportedly hoping that Arab 
public opinion would support PA President Mahmoud Abbas and 
give the peace process a chance in the wake of Israel's 
pull-out from Gaza settlements.  Palestinians should be 
particularly careful to ensure security at this juncture. 
Abdullah reportedly agreed the pull-out represented a great 
opportunity that should not be lost.  Our MFA interlocutors 
said specifics were not discussed.  Jordanian Embassy 
officials told Poloff September 8 that Abdullah stressed to 
his hosts the pull-outs must be considered a step in the 
process and all further steps must be closely tied to the 
roadmap. 
MCELDOWNEY