US embassy cable - 05WELLINGTON695

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000695 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NZ 
SUBJECT: THE KIWI VOTER: TRAPPED BETWEEN BOREDOM AND 
ANXIETY? 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David Burnett, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Going in to the final week of New Zealand's general 
election campaign, polls are fluctuating wildly: one had 
National in a seven-point lead, while another had Labour 
leading by nine points just two days later.  The latest put 
the major parties in a dead heat, with support for Labour at 
40.6 and National at 40.1  While the quality of individual 
polls may be at issue, it is clear this is the closest race 
in years.  Voters appear to be dithering, and as many as 20 
percent remain undecided.  Those that have made their choice 
are often not their selected major parties' usual core 
voters.  The small parties are mostly dropping off the map, a 
real change since MMP voting was initiated in 1996. Part of 
voter indecision is due to the real differences in vision 
that the two major parties represent.  In general, though, 
New Zealand's electorate seem tired of the Labour Government, 
yet distrustful of what changes the opposition National party 
would bring.  In the remaining week, we expect focus to turn 
more on the major parties' leadership, although voters will 
also make decisions on bread and butter issues such as taxes, 
racial identity, infrastructure, health, and education.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (C) Many New Zealand polls do not break down respondents 
into a large number of categories. Interestingly, those that 
do seem to indicate that this year's voters are not easily 
categorized.  Labour's traditional supporters are urban 
residents, the intelligentsia, and lower and middle income 
voters.  National traditionally draws support from farmers, 
business, and wealthier Kiwis.  But during this campaign, 
Labour is doing well in government-centered Wellington and in 
Christchurch, but National is drawing support in more 
cosmopolitan Auckland.  Lower-income voters, traditional 
Labourites, seem peeved at the Government's support for 
students, and smaller middle-class families resent that 
Labour's family support does not extend to them.  Some blue 
collar workers are tired of Labour's "nanny state" rules such 
as those banning smoking in pubs. National's tax cut package 
seemed to have drawn support from across income ranges, but 
as of now some 44% of upper income earners have not said that 
they will vote for National. 
 
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What voters want 
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3.  (C) What do Kiwi voters want, and why are they being so 
volatile in opinion polls? 
To some extent, voters may be indecisive because there are 
real choices on offer, as this year the major parties are 
representing distinctly different visions of New Zealand. 
For Labour, it's a country that takes care of its most 
vulnerable through income redistribution and uses the law to 
address past wrongs to Maori.  Labour's New Zealand strives 
to be is something of an antipodes version of Blair's "Cool 
Britannia," with the Government publicly courting investment 
in fashion, high-tech and the arts even as it continues to 
flog New Zealand export mainstays such as agricultural goods. 
  Today's Labour, like Lange's 1980s Government, also takes 
great pains to define a distinctive Kiwi identity on the 
international stage, one that stands for multilateralism, 
anti-nuclear proliferation, and a knee-jerk need to define 
their country as independent from the United States, 
Australia, and Britain. 
 
4.  (C) In contrast, the vision put forward by National, a 
more conservative party now than in the recent past, is of a 
New Zealand where equality is provided through a level 
playing field, with a more limited role for government. 
National is pledging to represent the interests of 
"mainstream" New Zealanders, rather than those of minority 
groups of any kind.  Spending decisions should be made by 
citizens themselves when possible, with lower taxes for all 
rather than hand-outs for some.   There should be fewer 
barriers to doing business.  While National still supports 
universal health and strong schools, it wants to introduce 
some market competition into the system, or at least 
business-type evaluations to measure success.  Whereas before 
the campaign heated up Labour only subsidized pre-school care 
in government-run centers, National has from the start 
promised tax breaks for any-out-of- pocket child care.  On 
the international stage, National has been careful to claim 
it will not radically change New Zealand's policies.  To some 
extent this is to protect the party from being vulnerable to 
Labour's claims that National will make New Zealand a "deputy 
sheriff" to the United States and others.  But many in 
National are actually committed internationalists, even 
though most favor a stronger relationship with traditional 
allies than is now the case. 
 
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Roots of Indecision 
------------------- 
 
5.  (C) OK, there's a choice, but voters have had weeks to 
mull things over.  Why are they being so slow to make up 
their minds?  Our sense of the zeitgeist is this:  For some 
time now, the Government has not recognized that people are 
feeling less well off than before.  After putting up with a 
string of Labour missteps and a government long seen as 
arrogant and out of touch with the mainstream, voters have 
finally begun to tire of the Prime Minister and other Labour 
officials.  The ill-fated May budget was the likely catalyst, 
but voters had already been primed by opposition parties to 
take a new look at government policies they'd earlier been 
content to live with, and government attitudes they had 
previously taken in stride.  The familiar now looks 
tarnished. 
 
6.  (C) Yet National's platform offers the anxieties of the 
unknown.  Will there really be enough money left after tax 
cuts for schools, health, and pensions?  Although many Kiwis 
respond to National's call for an end to special treatment 
for Maori, will that create civil unrest?  What will happen 
to the unique New Zealand identity?  There is also a real 
question about whether National's senior members are ready to 
rule.  Every week seems to bring on a new gaffe.  This week, 
it is National leader Don Brash's belated admission that he 
had talked with an allegedly apolitical religious sect and 
endorsed their idea of a pamphlets campaign against Labour 
and the Greens.  So far, the public has not been turned off 
by these mistakes.  But over time the unclear responses may 
raise questions on National's credibility, and the inept 
handling of crises may not appeal to voters who want to know 
their PM can handle the pressures of running the country and 
meeting with foreign leaders. 
 
7.  (C) These questions will be weighing on voters minds in 
the remaining days of the campaign.  Here are some of the 
major issues in play as they make their choices: 
 
Taxes:  As we've reported earlier, this is National's trump 
card and Labour's biggest vulnerability.  National's website 
explaining its plan got over a million hits within days. 
Labour's extended "Working for Families" income support 
leaves out large numbers of voters and has not done the 
trick.  Of all issues, this is the one that could draw to 
National working- and middle-class voters who have more 
recently voted Labour.  Labour's efforts to paint the cuts as 
fiscally irresponsible have run into trouble, given that the 
plan is the work of a former central banker (Brash) and 
former successful international banker (National finance 
spokesman John Key).  Labour's recent "discovery" of extra 
money in tax revenues that it is using for more spending 
promises has further weakened its ability to criticize the 
tax cuts, although some voters are questioning how National 
will finance its plan.  Many voters have also criticized 
Labour for not reducing oil taxes in light of rising world 
prices. 
 
Race/National identity:  National leader Don Brash's famous 
2004 Orewa speech put this issue on the map and made the 
party a political contender once more.  In a recent speech 
dubbed "Orewa II," Brash repeated his pledge to do away with 
Maori electoral seats and said he would also abolish separate 
ministries dealing with Maori issues.  National's position 
sits well with especially older white New Zealanders and (we 
suspect) the country's sizable immigrant and Pacific Islander 
communities. (Auckland is the largest Polynesian city in the 
world.)  Even a visiting U.S. Democratic Senator remarked to 
us that "the Maori seem to expect a lot."  But many Kiwis are 
proud of their country's fair treatment of its indigenous 
people, and many believe Maori deserve special treatment 
because preservation of Maori culture is essential to 
maintaining the uniquely "New Zealand" identity.  Air New 
Zealand makes use of the koru (fern) in its designs, the New 
Zealand rugby team the All Blacks starts each game with a 
haka (war chant) and the average New Zealander knows a fair 
number of Maori words.  (Maori is also the second official 
language here.) 
 
Health:  This is not the pressing issue it has been in the 
past, but remains important.  Government spending on health 
now takes up about 20 percent of the budget.  The Government 
has boosted healthcare providers' salaries, and by 2007 will 
give subsidized care to all New Zealanders.  National says 
more people than ever are waiting for elective surgery 
despite the extra spending, but this is one of the areas in 
which their party is the most vulnerable.   Many people do 
not believe that enough money will be left in the pot after 
tax cuts to meet the country's burgeoning health costs.  In 
recognition of this, National has pledged to maintain 
Labour's 2005-6 funding for health, although it has also 
called for cost reductions through public-private 
partnerships, less bureaucracy, and a requirement for 
government funding to be allocated based on quality and price 
of the services provided. 
Education:  The Government has seen a number of scandals in 
this area, from botched national exams to accusations that 
the deputy education minister engaged in corporal punishment 
while a teacher.  National has pledged more national 
standards and more meaningful reports for students that will 
really measure progress.  But here, too, voters are wary of 
National's claims that there will be enough to maintain 
education after tax cuts.  National's pledge to allow Kiwis 
who remain in the country to take tax deductions for interest 
on student loans looks stingy compared to Labour's offer to 
forgive the interest completely, perhaps boosting skeptics' 
suspicions. 
 
Environment:  Voters who regard the environment as a key 
election issue are most likely to vote for the Greens or 
Labour.   National has said it will withdraw New Zealand from 
the Kyoto agreement, a stance which is most likely to appeal 
to the business and farm vote.  Labour insists it remains 
committed to Kyoto, but it's miscalculations of what 
adherence to the agreement will cost has been an 
embarrassment and prevents the Government from playing up 
environment as an issue to all but the most ardent 
conservationists.  (FYI: The Government had estimated it 
would make a profit from emissions trading, but has since 
admitted it will instead have to pay about NZD 1 billion.) 
 
Infrastructure/Local Issues:  In addition to national issues, 
voters will be looking at how the parties will handle issues 
of importance to local communities.  High on the list are 
infrastructure issues such as transport, particularly in 
major cities Auckland and Wellington which account for almost 
half the country's population.  National has offered to 
increase spending to build roads and to cut red tape by 
amending the country's Resource Management Act, which among 
other things provides for government financial assistance to 
a project's opponents.  National also says it will change the 
Land Transport Management Act, which it believes is too 
deferential to the views of local Maori.  Labour says it has 
spent large sums on roads -- NZD 1.3 billion this fiscal 
year.  Labour also favors more support for public transport, 
and claims government assistance has increased Auckland's 
regional transport services by 40% at peak times. 
 
"Missing" Kiwis:  There are between one half and one million 
expatriate New Zealanders, representing up to 20% of the 
total population.  While historically many Kiwis have had an 
"overseas experience" by living and working abroad for a few 
years as young adults, there is some indication that fewer of 
them are returning home.  National claims New Zealand's high 
rate of taxation helps drive young, hard-working Kiwis away, 
particularly the over 350,000 who live in Australia.  Labour 
points out that income tax rates in Australia are barely 
lower than here, and that even more people will leave if 
National is allowed to ruin New Zealanders' relaxed work/life 
balance. 
 
Leadership:  More and more, Kiwis are remarking that this is 
the most "presidential" election campaign they have ever 
seen.  It is likely that many undecided voters will make 
their decision on the 17th based whether they would rather 
see Helen Clark or Don Brash as Prime Minister.  We will 
report septel on the two candidates and their appeal to 
voters (or lack thereof). 
Burnett