US embassy cable - 05WELLINGTON692

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000692 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NZ 
SUBJECT: THOUGH ON THE FRINGE, NEW ZEALAND'S GREENS MAY 
PLAY ROLE IN NEXT GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: WELLINGTON 70 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David R. Burnett, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) Strongly identified with environmental protectionism, 
New Zealand's Green Party also represents a number of other 
small constituencies, ranging from those who favor legalizing 
marijuana to those concerned with improving nutrition in 
school lunches.  Typically favored by younger New Zealanders 
and women, the Greens lost support early in this campaign 
when they tried to attract a broader range of supporters by 
campaigning for "social justice.".  The Party only regained 
the 5% threshold in the polls after its leaders pledged to 
back a coalition with Labour and PM Clark made a show of 
campaigning with Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons (latest 
polls put it as high as 7%).  Labour's decision to back the 
Greens assures it a needed coalition partner - it can't win 
without at least one -- but also risks painting the 
Government as more radical than it has tried to appear thus 
far.  It may also have limited the Government's coalition 
options with United Future, though a Parliamentary voting 
arrangement may still be possible.  A Labour-Green coalition 
may slow, but will not not rule out, our pursuit of a more 
structured relationship with a reelected Labour Government. 
PM Clark is very unlikely to give the Greens a major foreign 
policy and security role.  She will also keep them well away 
from intelligence issues.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) Over the last 30 years, the Green movement has so 
influenced New Zealand that environmental themes now are 
imbedded in the New Zealand identity and are favored by major 
and minority parties alike.  Much of the public nevertheless 
views the political wing of the Green movement, the Green 
Party, with suspicion. They find the party's policies too 
extreme and unwieldy, and there is something about the "eat 
your vegetables - NOW" quality about Green pronouncements 
that many find unpalatable. The Greens' 1999-02 involvement 
in government resulted in a mixed report card. 
 
Core themes bind Green constituencies 
------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Nonetheless, the party has strong support from its 
core constituents, an assortment of smaller interests each 
defending causes central to the Greens' political beliefs: 
environmentalism and conservation, safe food (including no 
genetic modification), youth, left-wing economics, 
legalization of cannabis, nonviolence and peace.  The Greens 
say they want a "fairer society," including government 
assistance to children and the poor.  They led parliamentary 
protests against U.S. and coalition military operations in 
both Afghanistan and Iraq. The Greens set a very low 
yardstick for identifying human rights abuse, which they 
often use in making their case for fair trade. 
 
4. (SBU) The Greens favor the use of government regulation to 
change people's behavior. They view the market and its 
instruments with suspicion.  The Greens therefore are not 
favored by an emerging strain of environmentally-oriented 
voters who remain convinced about the need to address 
pollution, biodiversity and climate change and other areas of 
Green concern, yet are increasingly uncertain about alarmist 
proclamations and the use of heavy handed rules. 
 
5. (SBU) In fact, some voters see the Greens' unrelenting 
stance on its pet issues as perilously close to extremism. 
That perception, and the view that the party is increasingly 
out of touch with the electorate, has stymied its attempts at 
broader appeal.  Last year, for example, the Anarchist 
movement declared Greens co-leader Rod McDonald an enemy of 
the poor when he called on New Zealanders to stop buying 
fuel-inefficient, used cars from Japan. 
 
6.  (C) Many Kiwis nevertheless admire Fitzsimons' deliberate 
lack of spin: her straight- shooting approach has won her 
points in leadership debates and on the campaign trail.  She 
has learned from the last election campaign, when she 
appeared angry most of the time. 
 
On-and-off relationship with Labour 
----------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) In the 1999-02 Labour Government, the Greens worked 
in cooperation with the Labour-led Governing coalition on 
certain issues, in return for limited budget input.  Three 
years ago, the Greens -- mistakenly believing that Labour 
would require their support to form a government -- took an 
intransigent line against genetic modification that ended up 
costing both itself and Labour votes. United Future picked up 
Green-fearing votes and became Labour's choice as its primary 
partner in a coalition government. The Greens managed to 
increase their strength in Parliament and agreed to support 
the Government on certain issues, however. 
 
8. (SBU) In this year's campaign, the Greens have publicly 
and unequivocally declared Labour is the only party with 
which they will enter into a post-election arrangement. Even 
before NZ First leader Winston Peters announced he would 
avoid a formal coalition with either major party, Labour 
decided its best prospect would be to back a coalition with 
the Greens, the only minor party other than NZ First likely 
to gain at least 5% of the party vote.  In an apparent effort 
to ensure that the Greens finish above the threshold (they 
have little chance of winning a constituency seat), Labour 
has endorsed a coalition with the Greens and the PM has on 
occasion hit the campaign trail with Green Party co-leader 
Jeanette Fitzsimons.  This has likely limited the possibility 
of a formal coalition arrangement with the more centrist 
United Future, whose leader Peter Dunne has openly ruled out 
any role in a Government that formally includes the Greens. 
Labour may have to settle for a more complicated voting 
agreement with Dunne instead. 
 
Leveraging influence in a new Labour government 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
9. (SBU) If Labour wins a third term and turns to the Greens 
as its main coalition partner for a majority hold on 
government, the Green leadership likely would insist on 
cabinet posts or at least a support agreement that delivers 
much more than their 1999 and 2002 arrangements. Recent media 
reports suggest that the party is interested in running the 
transportation portfolio. This interest has caused concern 
among other parties, which contend that the Greens' policy of 
increasing tax on diesel fuel would raise freight charges and 
Green opposition to developing over-burdened road networks 
would hurt the country's regional economies. Actually, 
because the Greens have already made it clear they will not 
work for National, and because National wouldn't want to work 
with them in any case, their negotiating position is likely 
to be limited and they may be assigned a relatively minor 
cabinet slot. 
 
Foreign policy: can't see the forest for the trees 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
10. (SBU) In July, before announcing itself in coalition with 
Labour, the Greens attempted to force the Government to stop 
the national cricket team from departing for a tour of 
Zimbabwe.  They brought to New Zealand a prominent Zimbabwean 
activist who spoke against the Mugabe regime's extremist 
domestic policies.  Last month, trying to fuel debate over 
the National Party's foreign policy, the Greens brought to 
New Zealand a former Australian intelligence official who 
quit his job in opposition to the Iraq war. Andrew Wilkie, 
the former Australian Defence Force lieutenant colonel, told 
an audience of Kiwis that the New Zealand government's 
opposition to the invasion of Iraq and the country's 
anti-nuclear policy keep New Zealand off the list of top 
terrorist targets. 
 
11.  (C) Neither visitor produced significant political gains 
for the Greens: the Wilkie visit barely registered in the 
media and Labour grabbed most of the airtime on the cricket 
issue.  Both visits demonstrate the Greens' approach to 
foreign affairs: specific issues reflective of their 
ideology, rather than a unifying, concrete foreign policy 
vision.  Labour MPs have quietly told us they regard the 
Green's foreign affairs spokesman, Keith Locke, as extreme 
and impractical.  The Greens have also in the past 
embarrassed Labour by criticizing the Government's trade 
talks and other approaches to China.  In coalition, it is 
very unlikely PM Clark would allow the Greens any real 
foreign policy or security role, and their lack of 
negotiating leverage will prevent them from insisting on one. 
 In her role as Minister in Charge of the NZ Intelligence 
Service, Clark has kept a tight control on intelligence 
issues, allowing few even within her cabinet to see reports. 
She will undoubtedly keep any Green cabinet official in the 
dark about intelligence matters. 
 
Political Management 
---------------------------------- 
 
12. Unlike other minor parties, the Greens' strength resides 
in the commitment to the cause rather than the profile of any 
one leader. The party strives to make decisions by consensus, 
and this is reflected in its co-leadership arrangement with 
Jeannette Fitzsimons and Rod Donald at the helm. One way of 
explaining how this leadership arrangement functions is to 
think of the party as, ironically, a corporation. Fitzsimons' 
role is akin to chairman of the board - the public face of 
the party and movement. Donald is more like a managing 
director - overseeing the day-to-day operations at 
Parliament.  The Embassy has in recent months sought to build 
bridges with the Greens in order to better explain our 
policies to them, and Donald in particular has responded 
warmly to these efforts. 
 
13. Jeanette Fitzsimons has the leadership's strongest 
environmental roots.  Despite having no formal training or 
background in any field of science, Fitzsimons was a lecturer 
in environmental studies at Auckland University before being 
elected to Parliament. She also worked as an environmental 
consultant and was highly active in various environmental 
organizations. Fitzsimons' first entry into politics was as 
an unsuccessful candidate of the Values Party, the Greens' 
political forbearer. When that party merged with a number of 
other groups to form the modern Green Party, Fitzsimons 
became an active member of the new organization. When the 
Green Party joined with several other left-wing parties to 
form the Alliance, Fitzsimons became co-deputy. In 1995, she 
became co-leader of the Green Party (which remained within 
the Alliance). In the 1996 election, Fitzsimmons entered 
Parliament on the Alliance list. The Greens contested the 
1999 election as an independent party, with Fitzsimons and 
Rod Donald at the helm.  Fitzsimons and her husband manage an 
organic farm. 
 
14. Rod Donald is a longstanding environmentalist who 
belonged to the Values Party from 1974 to 1979. He was first 
elected to Parliament in the 1996 election as an Alliance 
list MP.  In 1999, he won election as number two on the 
Greens' party list. He retained his seat in the 2002 
election. For many years, Donald has had a special interest 
in electoral reform. From 1989 to 1993, he served as 
spokesperson for the Electoral Reform Coalition, the campaign 
that led to the introduction of MMP. 
Burnett