US embassy cable - 02COLOMBO1968

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001968 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  10-21-12 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, PINR, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Tumult among small parties undermines 
effectiveness of governing coalition 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 210134Z Oct 02 
 
-      (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 200752Z Oct 02 
-      (C) Colombo 1942, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills.  Reasons 
1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The governing United National Party is 
being buffeted by severe turbulence triggered by unhappy 
junior coalition partners.  The Sri Lanka Muslim 
Congress is sharply divided over the peace process, for 
example, while the major party for tea estate Tamils is 
driving a hard bargain for its continued support. 
Already on the defensive in its cohabitation battles 
with the president, the coalition's widening fissures 
are steadily undermining the effectiveness of the 
government.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
UNP:  A problem with the Numbers 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The governing United National Party (UNP) is 
experiencing serious problems with its junior partners. 
(Note:  The UNP, in league with other smaller parties, 
makes up the United National Front, "UNF," governing 
coalition.)  While the largest single party in 
Parliament with roughly 105 seats, the UNP is several 
seats short of the 113 seats or more that are needed in 
the 225-member Parliament for majority status.  This 
fact makes the UNP reliant on the support of its UNF 
partners, including the five seats held by the Sri Lanka 
Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the three seats held by the 
tea estate Tamil Ceylon Workers Congress, in forming the 
UNF's current 114 seat majority.  (Note:  The numbers of 
seats provided are best estimates:  some MPs run on 
several party tickets, leading to various figures for 
the total number of SLMC and tea estate Tamil MPs.) 
Reflecting on the UNP's quandary, Desmond Fernando, a 
well-known lawyer, recently told us -- "The government 
is really at the mercy of the SLMC and the tea estate 
Tamils for its majority." 
 
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Fractures in Key Muslim Party 
----------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Of the UNP's coalition-related problems, the 
most serious is with the SLMC, the major Muslim party in 
the country.  Simply put, the SLMC seems to be gradually 
breaking apart.  The main fault line in the party is 
between those who support the GSL's peace initiative 
versus those who are against it.  While this division 
has been there since the UNF governing coalition was 
formed in December 2001, the problem is only getting 
worse -- and more public. 
 
4.  (C) The central player in the intra-SLMC conflict is 
the party's leader, Rauf Hakeem.  Most observers have 
noted that Hakeem has been flat-out unable to unite all 
elements of the SLMC in support of his pro-peace process 
stance.  In particular, SLMC MPs (and party faithful) 
who are from the tense eastern area are up in arms over 
what they see as Hakeem's failure to protect them from 
the Tamil Tigers.  SLMC members from the east note that 
Hakeem is not from the east and accuse him of not caring 
about their problems.  (Note:  Hakeem is from Kandy in 
central Sri Lanka.)  In making this latter charge, they 
note that Hakeem recently made a statement indicating 
that he did not support the idea of forming a separate 
Muslim administrative unit in the east, a proposal 
favored by many eastern Muslims.  (Note:  After a furor 
erupted over his remarks, Hakeem later backed down -- 
see Reftel.)  Summarizing the SLMC problem, P. 
Saravanamuttu, the head of a local think-tank, told us 
that there had been a failure of leadership by Hakeem 
and there was little sign that he would ever be able to 
bring the eastern Muslims with him. 
 
5.  (C) Aside from the issue of the peace process, there 
appear to be additional reasons for the split in the 
SLMC.  Milinda Moragoda, the Minister of Economic Reform 
and a key adviser to the prime minister, told us that 
many in the SLMC were upset with Hakeem over the way he 
was handling government "pork."  Moragoda said he had 
heard complaints that Hakeem was distributing goodies he 
had obtained as minister of ports and shipping to his 
supporters, and not to others within the party.  This 
was causing serious heartburn to many and contributing 
to Hakeem's inability to control all elements of the 
party. 
-------------------------------------- 
Tea Estate Tamils at odds with the GSL 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The UNP is also at odds with Sri Lanka's major 
party for tea estate Tamils, the CWC.  While the CWC is 
strongly in favor of the GSL's peace initiative, 
friction has emerged over the government's plans to move 
forward with the "Upper Kotmale Dam" project.  (Note: 
The project involves building a Japanese-funded dam in 
the hill country of central Sri Lanka.)  Karu 
Jayasuriya, the Minister for Power and the UNP's deputy 
leader, has underscored that the project is crucial for 
meeting Sri Lanka's electricity-generating needs, an 
assessment most neutral observers agree with. 
 
7.  (C) A. Thondaman, the chief of the CWC and the 
Minister for Housing, has angrily attacked the 
government's plans, however.  Thondaman has repeatedly 
spilled harsh words, asserting that the project will 
lead to serious environmental degradation and the loss 
of jobs for tea estate Tamils.  He has even threatened 
to bolt the government over the issue, if necessary, and 
has been deftly campaigning against the project with 
important groups outside of his own tea estate Tamil 
community.  Thondaman, for example, recently gained the 
support of the chief of the important Malwatte sect of 
the Buddhist clergy to his anti-dam cause. 
 
8.  (C) Despite the heat it has been taking, the GSL has 
indicated that it plans to go forward with the Kotmale 
project.  Jayasuriya, for one, has taken pains to assure 
Thondaman that the government will do its best to 
address all environmental and economic concerns.  The 
GSL's efforts seem to be working inasmuch as Thondaman 
lately seems to be less testy on the subject than in the 
immediate past.  Nonetheless, there is a feeling that 
Thondaman will continue to be a thorn in the 
government's side.  Making this point, Jehan Perera, the 
head of the National Peace Council, a local NGO, told us 
that "He (Thondaman) knows that the UNP needs him and he 
will press the government for as much in return as he 
possibly can get whenever he can." 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C) As reviewed in Reftel, the government is already 
on the defensive in its cohabitation battles with the 
president.  The fact that the governing coalition itself 
is coming under increasing centrifugal pressure has 
further hindered its effectiveness vis-a-vis the 
president, as well as hurting it as it grapples with 
other pressing issues.  That said, the fragility of the 
UNP's governing coalition does not mean the government 
is close to falling, as the UNP in extremis can count on 
the support of the MPs affiliated with the Tamil parties 
for now.  Down the road, however, as the GSL deals with 
ever more sensitive issues involving peace and the 
economy, fractures in the coalition may only widen. 
Among many in the UNP, the coalition and cohabitation 
problems are of such magnitude that the PM may well be 
moved to try to call an election sooner rather than 
later.  END COMMENT. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS