US embassy cable - 05CAIRO6986

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 006986 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2015 
TAGS: PTER, KISL, ASEC, CASC, EG 
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON SECURITY CONDITIONS IN NORTH SINAI 
 
Classified by ECPO Minister-Counselor Michael Corbin for 
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (S/NF) Following the killing of two high-ranking police 
officials by what authorities call "Bedouin outcasts" in the 
Jabal Halal area, the Police-led terror sweep of the Sinai 
appears to have stalled amidst mined approaches and fierce 
resistance.  Top Egyptian officials have begun to publicly 
question whether the mass arrests of Sinai Bedouins and other 
"hostile" security measures taken by authorities in the wake 
of the October 2004 Taba bombings have spurred terrorism in 
the region.  Tourism in the region, however, appears poised 
to recover more quickly than expected.  End summary. 
 
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Sweep Continues, Casualties Incurred 
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2. (SBU) The Egyptian police sweep of the northern Sinai in 
search of the perpetrators of the string of recent attacks in 
the peninsula has met fierce and lethal resistance. 
Beginning August 23, special-forces units of the Central 
Security forces, in conjunction with anti-terrorism and 
General Security units, launched raids in the mountainous 
areas around Jebal Halal, a 240 square kilometer area south 
of El Arish in the northern Sinai. 
 
3. (C) Two days into the raid, a police armored vehicle 
traveling on a supply run struck a landmine, severely 
injuring three policemen and a Bedouin guide.  On August 25, 
forces inspecting the scene of the previous day's blast 
detonated another concealed mine.  The blast killed two 
senior police officials, Major-General Mahmoud Adel and 
Colonel Amr Abdel-Moneim, and wounded nine other police 
officers including what one report called the "head" of the 
special security services.  Reports that the attacks spurred 
a retreat by police have been denied by security officials, 
who cited a necessary pause in operations to clear the area 
of mines.  Anecdotal reports describe the police force as 
ill-equipped to face such a challenge, and say the pause in 
the onslaught was not only to clear the area of mines, but to 
request and receive the necessary equipment to do the job. 
 
4. (U) Police have singled out Salem Khadr Al Shanoub, who 
they describe as a notorious weapons and drugs trafficker, as 
the ringleader of a group of "outcast" Bedouin tribesmen 
resisting in their mountain stronghold.  Security officials 
state that most of the wanted Bedouin have been arrested or 
at least identified, despite reports of the August 28 escape 
of several suspects from police encirclement.  North Sinai MP 
Mohamed Al-Kashef said that he was contacted by Shannoub who 
denied any involvement in the attacks. 
 
5. (S/NF) Local contacts characterize the "outcast" Bedouins 
as those, who by their criminality on non-conformity to 
traditional Bedouin social norms, have been banished from 
permanent residence with the tribe.  They feel that these 
outcasts are ripe for exploitation or indoctrination by 
extremist groups or ideologies which the Bedouin normally 
shun. 
 
6. (U) According to Al-Kashef, investigations into the recent 
Sinai attacks have led to the arrest of approximately 700 
individuals, with 500 still remaining in custody.  Over 150 
individuals were arrested in the week of the August 25 attack 
alone.  Reports place the number of police engaged in the 
sweep at over 5,000. 
 
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Links to Other Blasts 
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7. (SBU) The parties responsible for the attacks, and their 
possible links with international terrorist organizations 
remains unclear.  Ministry of Interior officials are 
exploring the links between the bombs used in the Taba, Sharm 
and El Gourah-MFO attacks, positing that they were of the 
same type and produced in the El Arish area.  They describe 
the devices as "crude," being comprised of gasoline canisters 
and as-yet-unidentified explosive materials.  However, 
contradictory reports citing anonymous sources have described 
the types of explosives used as being sophisticated and new 
to Egypt.  Officials publicly continue to lay the blame for 
the Sinai attacks on local elements, but some unnamed 
security sources in speaking to the international press have 
also claimed links to "outside" terrorist organizations. 
 
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PM Talks Roots of Sinai Terror 
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8. (U) PM Nazif was quoted in a recent New York Times piece 
as saying that the GOE was examining other "social" factors 
that may have spurred the latest attacks.  These factors, 
such as the police response to the October 2004 Taba bombings 
where several thousand residents in the northern Sinai were 
arrested and held for questioning, could have spawned 
vengeance on the part of the aggrieved.  Nazif has avoided 
directly criticizing the Ministry of the Interior, however. 
In a speech commemorating the death of the two police 
officials in Jabal Halal, Nazif praised the MOI's role in 
maintaining security and stability in the country.  The PM 
also opined in his interview about the possibility of 
international involvement in the attacks, a theory at odds 
with predominant government position that the perpetrators 
were known and local. 
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Taba Trial 
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9. (U) On August 30, an Ismailiya State Security court judge 
postponed continuation of the Taba bombings trial until 
September 25-26, citing the need to call more witnesses.  The 
adjournment came just two weeks after the resumption of the 
trial on August 14.  The judge announced that the head of 
security of South Sinai and his aide must appear as witnesses 
before the court.  The judge also called for an explanation 
of the failure of the Hilton hotel's CCTV monitoring system 
to record footage of the vehicle which struck the hotel. 
 
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Tourism/Economy 
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10. (U) Indicators continue to point to a healthy recovery 
for tourism in Sharm El Sheikh following the July 23 blasts. 
According to the Ministry of Tourism, the average occupancy 
rate, which dipped to 30 percent in the immediate aftermath 
of the attacks, has now bounced back to 62 percent.  The 
Egyptian Tourism Federation reports that arrivals of 
Italians, traditionally the largest group of foreign visitors 
in August, outpaced departures by mid-month.  International 
tour operators are reporting near-normal bookings to Sharm 
for European travelers.  Tourist arrivals for July and August 
are up 24 percent on the same period last year. 
 
11. (U) In Egypt overall, the Ministry forecasts 9 million 
visitors to the country by year-end, slightly lower than 
forecasts but an increase on the 8.1 million recorded on 
2004. 
 
12. (U) The Emergency Labor Welfare Fund, formed after the 
blasts to offset negative employment effects of the attacks, 
announced it will disburse a "first installment" sum of LE 
800,000 (USD 139,000) to 3,468 beneficiaries. 
 
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Comment 
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13. (C) The laying of mines to target police represents an 
escalation on the part of the Bedouin, and one that the 
police appeared ill-prepared at first to counter.  The 
question as to whether the Sinai terrorists are purely a 
home-grown phenomenon or directly linked to international 
terror networks looms large.  The GOE would like the public 
focus to remain on the former theory, but this compels the 
leadership to address uncomfortable questions about prior 
police treatment of the Bedouins as a root cause. 
Nonetheless, the Egyptian assertion that the Sinai terrorists 
are purely homegrown and devoid of outside influence seems to 
be wearing thin.  Reporting in other Embassy channels 
reinforces the impression that the  campaign has not gone as 
planned for the police, and that additional government 
resources are being brought to bear.  End comment. 
 
 
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