US embassy cable - 05CAIRO6958

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 006958 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, PGOV, EG, OREP 
SUBJECT: CODEL DAVIS SEPTEMBER 2-5 VISIT TO CAIRO:  MUBARAK 
 
Classified by DCM Stuart E. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C)  In an ebullient mood on the eve of the Egyptian 
presidential election, President Mubarak told visiting Codel 
Davis that the main reason he was running for president was 
because the process would fail without him, given the 
candidates that had chosen to run.  While affirming the 
importance of his decision--which transferred the choice for 
President from "300 members of the People's Assembly to the 
people themsleves," Mubarak warned that pressure to speed up 
the pace of democracy in the region would be 
counterproductive. Mubarak said the Gaza disengagement was a 
significant first step for which Sharon deserved credit but 
he hoped there would now be progress on the West Bank issue. 
On Iraq, Mubarak affirmed that Egypt had been pressing Sunni 
leaders to accept the constitution, but he noted that 
resistance was strong and he feared that the Sunnis would use 
the October referendum to reject the constitution setting the 
Iraq process back to square one.  End summary. 
 
2. (SBU)  Representative Tom Davis (R-VA), Representative 
Darrell Issa (R-CA), his spouse Katherine Issa, 
Representative Marty Meehan (D-MA) his spouse Mrs. Ellen 
Meehan, Representative Al Wynn (D-MD), his spouse Mrs. Gaines 
Wynn, Representative Michael Turner (R-OH), his spouse Mrs. 
Lorie Turner, Representative Steve Chabot, (R-OH) his spouse 
Mrs. Donna Chabot, Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), her 
spouse Mr. Clifton Maloney, Representative Nathan Deal 
(R-GA), his spouse Mrs. Sandra Deal, Representative Kendrick 
Meek (D-FL) his spouse Mrs. Leslie Meek met with President 
Mubarak for 40 minutes September 5 in Cairo. Professional 
staff members from the Government Reform Committee John 
Cuaderes, Ron Martinson, Larry Brady, Charles Phillips, David 
Rapallo, Frederick Hill, Gabriele Forsyth, and Darcie 
Brickner joined the meeting at the end.  The CODEL was 
accompanied by the Charge and ECPO MinCouns (notetaker). 
Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit and Presidential spokesman 
Ambassador Soliman Awad joined the President. 
 
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Mubarak on Elections and Democracy 
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3. (C)  Chairman Davis opened the meeting by presenting 
President Mubarak with a framed copy of House Resolution 384 
adopted on July 27, 2005 to express support for Egypt after 
the Sharm El-Sheikh bombing attack.  Mubarak expressed his 
appreciation for the efforts of the House and added his 
condolences for the Hurricane Katrina tragedy.  Mubarak 
quickly turned to his decision to press for multi-candidate 
elections for president.   Noting that these elections 
provided people the right to choose their leader "for the 
first time since the pharaohs," Mubarak said the main driving 
force for his decision was to remove the power to decide who 
would be President from the People's Assembly to the people. 
Mubarak said he has asked himself what the situation would be 
in 10 or 15 years if the People's Assembly was full of people 
who "seek to destroy democracy."  Noting Egypt's experience 
with terrorism and the assassinations of Government 
officials, Mubarak said "we know these people" and if they 
take power it will be the end of freedom.  Instead of 300 
people deciding on the leadership (the two thirds majority 
required in the previous referendum system) at least 20 
million eligible voters likely to vote could make the choice. 
 
4. (C)  As to the timing of the decision, Mubarak said he had 
had the thought in his mind "for 24 years."  He said he had 
raised the idea with a select group in the People's Assembly 
in February of this year with the idea of going ahead before 
the end of the parliamentary session.  The reaction had been 
negative, he said, and he had decided to just go ahead with 
the decision. 
 
5. (C)  Later in the discussion, Congressman Meehan (D-MA) 
expressed his concern over how the Presidential elections 
would be monitored, asking Mubarak for his assurances that 
the elections would be free and fair.  The President 
responded emphatically that the Presidential Election 
Commission was opposed to any interference in the elections. 
They are very independent, he said.  When he had "asked about 
observers" he had been told that Egypt was one of the few 
countries in the world to allow judges into the polling 
places to monitor elections.  All involved in the process had 
refused to allow monitors, he said. 
 
6. (C)  When Congressman Meehan asked how the President felt 
after campaigning, Mubarak responded he had expected the "bad 
words" and attacks, but joked that ten candidates for a 
Presidential election was excessive.  Speaking more 
seriously, Mubarak said he had decided to run in these 
presidential elections "for one reason:  to make this process 
a success."  If he had not run, he emphasized, the whole 
process would have collapsed given those who had chosen to 
run.  If that had happened, he warned, Egypt would have 
returned to a referendum and lost all the progress that had 
been made. 
7. (C)  Congressman Turner (R-OH)expressed his appreciation 
for the strong bilateral relationship.  President Mubarak 
responded by cautioning against too much outside pressure on 
the pace of democracy in the region, noting that change  must 
come gradually or the region will turn against the U.S. 
Using the example of Saudi Arabia, Mubarak said that cultural 
and historical factors made it very difficult for that 
country to accept democracy.  Democracy might not work and 
pressure could lead to violence.  Some could then turn these 
disturbances against the U.S., Mubarak warned, and this would 
be very bad for the region and also for Egypt. 
 
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Gaza disengagement 
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8. (C) Chairman Davis (R-VA) asked Mubarak for his views on 
the Palestinian issue, Gaza disengagement and relations with 
Israel.  Mubarak explained how he had brought PM Sharon and 
President Abbas together in Sharm El Sheikh.  He said Sharon 
was a leader capable of succeeding on Gaza disengagement 
because of his strength.  After complete Israeli withdrawal 
from Gaza, Mubarak said, he hoped for progress on the West 
Bank.  This would not be easy, he underlined, and would take 
time.  In response to the Chairman's suggestion that Gaza 
could be a "bomb," Mubarak expressed complete agreement 
stating that this was particularly likely if the entry points 
into Gaza were closed.  He said that he was working with PM 
Sharon and Defense Minister Mofaz to underline this point and 
he believed they understood it.  He said he had told them "be 
careful, you have made a very good step forward" but had 
cautioned that without a positive approach Gaza could become 
a "bomb" and create problems for all. 
 
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Iraq 
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9.  (C) In response to the Chairman's question on Iraq, 
Mubarak explained that Egypt had contacted Sunni leaders to 
press for cooperation on the constitution.  The reaction had 
been negative, he said, because the Sunni were "furious" at 
the Shia and believed the Shia were taking advantage of them. 
 Mubarak said he would continue his efforts but his greatest 
fear was that the Sunni will soundly reject the constitution 
in the October referendum.  "Then we will be back to zero and 
have to start again," he warned.  This will be extremely 
negative for the progress that is being made he said, but 
noted although the situation was tough, he would continue to 
work the issue. 
 
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Congressional exchanges on the relationship 
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10. (C) Congresswoman Maloney (D-NY), expressed her 
appreciation for Mubarak's historic decision on the 
multi-candidate presidential elections.  Mubarak responded 
with praise for the strong strategic relationship with the 
U.S., noting Egypt's shared military objectives in the 
region.  In this vein, he decried resistance in the Israeli 
Knesset to the deployment of Egyptian border guards to the 
border with Gaza based on claims that Egypt sought to invade 
Israel.  He emphasized that Egypt had no intention of 
invading anyone in the region. 
 
11. (SBU) Congressmen Deal (R-GA) thanked Mubarak for Egypt's 
role in support of Gaza disengagement after reminding the 
President of Georgian Jimmy Carter's link to Egypt. 
Representative Meek (D-FL) expressed his support for Egypt's 
regional role.  Representative Chabot (R-OH) noted that 
President Mubarak had acted on democracy and with Israel--two 
things he had asked the President for help on during his 
visit to Egypt earlier this year.  Representative Wynn (D-MD) 
congratulated Mubarak for reforms to the telecommunication 
sector.  Representative Issa (R-CA) noting Issa's frequent 
visits to the region, thanked Mubarak for receiving the group. 
 
12. (U) Codel Davis did not have the opportunity to clear 
this message before it departed Egypt. 
 
 
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