US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3690

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003690 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PINS, PTER, PGOV, MOPS, IZ, Reconstruction 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND COMMANDING GENERAL DISCUSS TAL AFAR 
WITH PRIME MINISTER AND MCNS 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, a.i., DAVID M. SATTERFIELD FOR REASON 
S 1.4 (a), (b), AND (d). 
 
1. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  SUMMARY: The Iraqi Ministerial 
Committee for National Security, chaired by Prime Minister 
Jaafari, met September 5 to discuss the evolving situation in 
Tal Afar and to plan a future course of action.  Fears were 
expressed that engaging in decisive military operations to 
flush the insurgents from the city would result in 
potentially heavy civilian casualties.  While hope was held 
that the Iraqi insurgents within the city could be enticed to 
surrender or leave with an offer of amnesty, members agreed 
that it is likely any foreign fighters in the city will stay 
and fight.  Concerns were also expressed that plans for the 
post-conflict phase lag behind the military plans and are not 
firm enough at this point to execute with confidence.  It was 
agreed that military shaping operations would continue, as 
would political attempts to reach a solution that would 
minimize the potential for major damage to the city or its 
inhabitants.  Planning for humanitarian operations, 
reconstruction, compensation, and post-conflict governance 
will also continue and will include a timeline for execution. 
 END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  Prime Minister Jaafari called a 
meeting of the Ministerial Council on National Security 
(MCNS) the night of September 5 to discuss the evolving 
situation in Tal Afar.  Ambassador, MNF-I Commanding General 
and Deputy Commanding General, British Ambassador, and Acting 
PolMil Counselor attended.  In addition to the PM, the 
Ministers of Defense, Interior, and National Security Affairs 
attended, as did the National Security Advisor, the PM's lead 
action officer on Tal Afar (Mr. Adnan Ali al-Kadhami), and 
Mr. Safa al-Safi, Minister of State for Transitional National 
Assembly Affairs. 
 
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CURRENT SITUATION 
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3. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  The PM asked for an update from 
MNF-I on the current situation.  DCG Brims explained that the 
Coalition Forces (CF) and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in the 
area of Tal Afar have not yet launched decisive operations 
and are taking care not to signal to the enemy that such 
operations are about to commence until the last possible 
moment.  However, U.S. and Iraqi patrols are active in most 
parts of the city and are engaged in shaping operations in 
preparation for decisive operations.  Their mission is to (1) 
set the conditions for continued political engagement between 
the local tribes, the insurgents, and the Iraqi Transitional 
Government (ITG); (2) permit the entry and staging of 
humanitarian aid in the city; (3) show the people of the city 
that ISF and CF are there to protect them by expelling the 
insurgents who have seized control; (4) assure that the 
tribes who have agreed to cooperate with the ITG and CF are 
doing so; and (5) prepare to engage the enemy in a decisive 
way. 
 
4. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  DCG Brims reported that one Iraqi 
Army brigade and slightly less than one U.S. Army brigade are 
currently operating in and directly around the city.  There 
are pockets of the enemy in various parts of the city, most 
notably in the Surai district.  Approximately 50 insurgents 
have been killed or captured and one U.S. soldier was killed 
today.  We believe that the tribal sheiks are keeping their 
word to us and are cooperating with CF and ISF.  We have also 
been in touch with the Iraqi Red Crescent and they are in the 
process of moving humanitarian supplies into safe locations 
within the city.  Ambassador pointed out that just because 
shaping operations are taking place does not mean decisive 
operations are inevitable. 
 
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THE IRAQI "PLAN" 
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5. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  Ambassador asked the PM to describe 
the Iraqi plan for post-decisive operations in the city. 
Questions included: How will the police force be 
reconstituted to avoid continued inter-tribal strife?  What 
are the plans for humanitarian aid, reconstruction, 
governance, and compensation?  The PM explained that after 
his last discussion with the Ambassador on this, he had sent 
a delegation to Tal Afar to investigate the nature of the 
fighting and to determine whether a peaceful, political 
solution was possible.  Adnan Ali led this delegation.  They 
determined that the tribal leaders now say they are willing 
to cooperate with the ITG and each other to rid the city of 
terrorists.  There is therefore the possibility that 
inter-tribal conflicts in the city can be controlled 
peacefully.  However, the need for military action is still a 
very real possibility. 
 
6. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  Ambassador inquired whether the ITG 
would like to cease shaping operations to pursue a political 
option.  The PM replied that he would prefer to follow 
parallel paths of dialogue on the one hand and military 
preparations on the other.  In his view, the stronger the 
military presence, the greater the incentive for the 
insurgents to negotiate.  One difficulty the ITG faces with 
the tribes is that they will not agree to identify members 
who are with the insurgents.  It is a matter of dignity and 
tradition to them not to betray their own.  (NOTE: It also 
seems that the tribal leaders are afraid of retribution if 
they do. END NOTE.)  However, tribal leaders have agreed to 
identify insurgent strongholds to CF and ISF. 
7. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  Returning to the Ambassador's 
question about post-decisive operations plans, the Minister 
of Interior reported that immediately following the operation 
he is prepared to deploy Public Order Battalions and Police 
Commando units into the city to restore and maintain order. 
They will remain for approximately one month.  In the 
meantime, a new police force reflecting the diversity of the 
city will be recruited and trained.  Each tribal sheik has 
agreed to nominate ten members to become police officers. 
Ambassador pointed out that it is critical that a competent, 
respected, and neutral police chief be appointed.  The 
Minister reported that his Deputy in charge of police will 
travel to Tal Afar on September 6 to solidify plans. 
 
8. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  With regard to compensation and 
reconstruction, Adnan Ali pointed out that the ITG would be 
looking to the CF for financial assistance.  He indicated 
that the tribes had agreed to cooperate in return for a 
promise of reconstruction and compensation for damages 
suffered, and now it is incumbent upon us to assist.  Further 
discussion revealed that the Iraqi effort to prepare for 
humanitarian assistance is still weak.  GEN Casey recommended 
that these plans be solidified to include a timeline. 
Current efforts to position humanitarian relief supplies in 
the city should continue. 
 
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CONCERN FOR NONCOMBATANTS 
------------------------- 
 
9. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  The PM expressed great concern for 
the welfare of the citizens of Tal Afar, and the Iraqi 
participants spent much time debating among themselves 
possible strategies to reduce the potential for civilian 
casualties.  National Security Advisor Rubaie pressed for a 
plan that would offer an amnesty to Iraqi fighters but would 
give no quarter to foreign fighters.  He hoped that faced 
with overwhelming ISF and CF military might, the Iraqi 
insurgents would either surrender or turn on their foreign 
compatriots.  Another plan was to leave an exit for the 
foreign fighters, squeeze them through it and then engage and 
destroy them outside of the city.  Eventually, most 
participants seemed resigned to the fact that the foreign 
fighters will stay and fight. 
 
10. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  There was concern that the foreign 
fighters would use women and children as human shields, 
resulting in the death of many innocents.  Adnan Ali reported 
that most civilians in the Surai district have already 
departed, and the tribal leaders are quietly convincing those 
who still remain to leave.  GEN Casey said he shared these 
concerns and agreed with the assessment that the tribes have 
already evacuated most civilians from Surai. He said he 
believes that the insurgents, Iraqis and foreign fighters 
alike, are digging in and preparing to stay and fight. 
 
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CONCLUSION 
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11. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  The PM concluded that we should 
move forward to support the mission.  The locals must 
continue to engage in a political dialogue.  At the same 
time, military preparations must continue.  The ISF and CF 
must move forward to isolate Surai and "we will deal with the 
reality of what happens," he said.  If the insurgents stay 
and fight, they must be defeated.  It was agreed that 
humanitarian preparations already underway would continue and 
that a firmed up plan for post-decisive operations, to 
include a timeline, would be formulated. 
 
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COMMENT 
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12. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ)  The lack of a firm, articulable 
plan for humanitarian relief, reconstruction, compensation, 
and post-conflict governance continues to be troubling.  END 
COMMENT. 
Satterfield