US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1397

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001397 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN AND CGAYE 
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS AND SRENANDER 
DOC FOR KBURRESS 
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION MARAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ 
STATE PASS EX-IM FOR JRICHTER AND KVRANICH 
STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND JEDWARDS 
STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT AND BTERNET 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB, EPET, KDEM, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: STRIKE PLANS FIZZLE 
 
REF: A) LAGOS 1377 B) LAGOS 1376 C) LAGOS 1350 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (U) The Nigerian Labor Congress (NLC) cancelled plans to 
initiate a nation-wide strike on September 7 in response to 
the recent fuel price increase (see ref A).  Apparently, the 
NLC encountered resistance or foot-dragging within organized 
labor.  Instead, the NLC now will organize a series of 
non-violent protest rallies in major state capitals, 
beginning September 14 in Lagos and continuing throughout the 
month.  The NLC will meet in early October to reassess the 
situation and decide on future activities.  This strategy 
shift demonstrates NLC's frustrations in mobilizing consensus 
among labor organizations and indicates that Nigerian labor 
and civil society groups are progressively losing their 
enthusiasm with fuel-price-related strikes. End Summary. 
 
Informational and Inspirational 
Rallies to Replace Strike 
------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) After marathon meetings September 5 with 35 separate 
civil society organizations and trade unions, the NLC 
cancelled the strike planned for September 7.  The new plan 
calls for a nine-city schedule of mass rallies intended to 
fix government attention on the widespread, popular 
dissatisfaction with the fuel price increase and government 
decision-making in general.  The Lagos rally will take place 
September 14, with additional rallies planned in Kano (Sept 
16), Maiduguri (Sept 20), Benin City (Sept 22), Asaba (Sept 
23), Umuahia (Sept 26), Ibadan (Sept 28), and Jos (Sept 30). 
There are no rallies planned in the two states that have seen 
violence related to the fuel price increase. 
 
NLC No Longer Leader of the Labor Union Pack 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) The Trade Union Congress (TUC), the umbrella 
organization for senior staff workers, is likely to gain 
government recognition within the next two days as a parallel 
central labor organization and a peer to the NLC, whose 
membership are the rank-and-file laborers.  The TUC is 
treading very carefully at this time so as not to endanger 
its imminent recognition.  Instead of advocating strikes, the 
TUC is therefore writing communiques protesting the 
government's economic policy but also implorng government to 
implement palliatives to price increases, like increased 
wages and increased refinery capacity.  John Odah, NLC 
General Secretary, reflecting NLC's frustration at the TUC 
nudging in on what had been the former's exclusive domain, 
vociferated that the TUC was "not completely competent" to 
make a strike happen and doubted their "ability to 
follow-through." 
 
4.  (SBU) Representatives of both the senior oil workers' 
union, PENGASSAN, and the rank-and-file version, NUPENG, 
endorsed the TUC's more incremental position.  For a strike 
to succeed, the cooperation of the petroleum workers' unions 
to close ports, airports, and major production centers is 
needed, but right now the level of cooperation between the 
unions is ebbing.  PENGASSAN, for instance, does not believe 
any of the previous strikes called by the NLC have been 
effective in arresting price increases or in ameliorating the 
work environment. 
 
Industry Argues for Higher Price; 
GON Holds Firm at 65 Naira/Liter 
-------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Petroleum marketers believe the current fuel price of 
65 naira/liter is still too far below international market 
prices.  They see a 72 naira/liter price as more realistic. 
They believe fuel will still be scarce at the 65 naira level 
and result in fuel scarcities in parts of Nigeria.  Numerous 
marketers walked out on discussions conducted by the Mantu 
Committee (the special Senate committee responsible for 
recommending palliatives to buffer the dislocations caused by 
fuel price increases), frustrated their advice on pricing had 
gone unheeded. 
 
6.  (U) In a September 1 letter to the NLC-led Labor and 
Civil Society Coalition (LASCO), the GON incorporated many of 
the arguments used by marketers and employer groups to defend 
the price increase.   It appears the government will play 
hardball with regard to compromise on the new 65 naira/liter 
price. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Organized labor is finding it harder to organize a 
strike.  The public appetite for a strike has waned and rifts 
between labor organizations are evident.  None of the major 
labor organizations involved were completely happy with the 
results of Monday's meetings, with NLC representatives 
arguing the rallies would not to lead to the GON changing its 
position.  The TUC hopes to buy time to continue efforts to 
persuade the Presidency to reverse its pricing decision and 
cause as little economic pain as possible for the average 
worker and family.  NLC's current acceptance of the Mantu 
Committee can be seen as a conciliatory position; NLC leaders 
had previously boycotted Mantu deliberations, asserting the 
committee had not gone far enough to protect workers. 
Conversely, it can be viewed as a signal of labor weakness in 
being able to muster a political alleviation to GON designs. 
In any event, the more labor delays the strike date, the less 
likely a strike will be.  With each passing day, people will 
tend to see the increase as a fait accomplis and will see 
strike action as futile.  The latest round, thus far, has 
shown that government has gotten the upper hand over labor on 
price increases and possible strike action.  End Comment. 
BROWNE