US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD3677

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003677 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, IZ, Sunni Arab, Parliament 
SUBJECT: FALLUJAH/RAMADI: SUNNIS EXPRESS  MEASURED 
SKEPTICISM TOWARD CONSTITUTION 
 
Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MICHAEL J. ADLER, 
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY:  In meetings with Fallujah Poloff and USMC 
officers, Al Anbar Province Sunni Arabs have expressed 
skepticism toward the draft constitution.  However, community 
leaders and ordinary residents continue to mobilize for the 
upcoming referendum.  They have largely stated their 
intentions to study the text in more detail before reaching a 
final decision on how to vote in the October 15 referendum. 
Many remain hopeful that changes to the constitution will be 
made in coming weeks.  Religious leaders in Fallujah are 
still urging residents to register (the deadline was extended 
in the province through September 7).  They also appear to 
have decided to study the constitution in more detail before 
communicating formal reactions.  Anbar Sunnis, overall, 
remain engaged in the national political process.  There is 
not yet a sense of automatic rejection of the constitution as 
area leaders consider their next steps and overarching 
political strategy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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FALLUJANS:  SKEPTICISM 
MIXED WITH PRAGMATISM 
---------------------- 
 
2. (C) Fallujah Poloff and Marine officers have met with 
several city leaders to discuss local reactions to the 
constitution.  In an August 30, 2005, city council session, 
Vice Chairman Qassem Mashkoor Noman Al-Esawi stressed that 
the constitution needed "equilibrium; otherwise, there would 
always be instability."  Sunnis, he added, remained 
principally concerned about federalism.  He hoped all 
outstanding issues could be resolved by October 15. 
Security, he stressed, was directly tied to politics. 
 
3. (C) Engineer Fawzi Mohammed, who acts as a principal 
deputy of the city's reconstruction committee, stated that 
whether Fallujans voted yes or no, it would be the "people's 
decision."  He noted that city leaders would be holding 
educational seminars -- led by sheikhs, imams and lawyers -- 
to urge residents to register and help educate them regarding 
the constitution. 
 
4. (C) In a series of meetings, imams, city council and 
business leaders have told poloff that voter registration 
continues to go well, with hundreds of residents signing up 
daily.  They question the IECI's performance, capacity and 
neutrality.  Fallujah officials sought U.S. assistance in 
pressing the case for same-day registration for Anbar 
residents, noting that while large numbers had successfully 
registered in Fallujah -- many Sunnis in other communities 
have not. 
 
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IMAMS:  "NO RUSH TO JUDGMENT" 
----------------------------- 
 
5. (C) A leading city imam, Sheikh Abdul Sittar, told 
Fallujah Poloff August 30 that Fallujah clerics had not yet 
told people how to vote, stating "there is much in the 
constitution we like, but also a few important 
disagreements."  He added that if the points of contention 
could be worked out, imams would urge residents to vote yes; 
if not, they would eventually exhort them to vote no. 
 
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GOVERNOR STRESSES ROLE OF RELIGIOUS LEADERS 
------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Provincial Governor Ma'moun indicated to Marine 
officers that he had not yet read the constitution and was 
unable to offer personal opinions about how it might be 
received in the province.  However, he added that the role of 
religious leaders would be important in shaping Sunni views 
at the local level. 
 
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TRIBAL LEADERS:  WE WILL 
EDUCATE MEMBERS AND VOTE 
------------------------ 
 
7. (C) During a September 3 meeting with six Fallujah-area 
tribal leaders, Fallujah Poloff and Marine Foreign Area 
Officer discussed local reactions to the constitution.  The 
sheikhs echoed that federalism remained the main sticking 
point -- arguing that Iraq's natural resources should not 
benefit just one part of the country (ie., north and south to 
the exclusion of Anbar Sunnis in the west).  One sheikh 
acknowledged that the constitution was "a living document; 
unlike the immutable Quran."  All looked to Baghdad for 
possible changes that would address continued Sunni concerns. 
 They said they would continue to help educate their tribal 
members and encourage participation. 
8. (C) Fallujah Poloff inquired about the extent to which 
Sunni political engagement in coming months would affect 
support for the insurgency.  One tribal leader said that 
"there would be fewer IEDs . . . if unity is achieved." 
Tribal leaders also noted that intimidation tactics in 
Fallujah would largely be ineffective in the face of 
concerted efforts by imams and other city leaders who were 
advocating participation. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9. (C) These initial reactions among Al-Anbar Sunni Arabs 
reflect both skepticism and an apparent pragmatic mindset. 
Local Sunni leaders continue to digest and study the contents 
of the constitution and, so far, seem to have largely 
reserved judgment.  The debate at the grass-roots level, not 
surprisingly, has focused more on operational issues 
(additional registration centers, same-day registration, more 
sites, etc.) and less on substantive arguments about the 
draft text. 
Satterfield